Archive for the ‘ARGENTINE UPDATE’ Category

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 23, 2015

24 octubre, 2015

1. ARGENTINA EXPECTED TO END DEBT STANDOFF AFTER VOTE (The New York Times)

2. A CANDIDATE TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE DRAWS ATTENTION, AND CRITICISM, IN ARGENTINA (The New York Times)

3. DRUG ALLEGATIONS CLOUD ARGENTINE POLL (Financial Times)

4. ARGENTINA’S ELECTIONS : THE END OF KIRCHNERISMO (The Economist)

5. ARGENTINA’S ELECTION : CLEANING UP AFTER CRISTINA (The Economist)

6. ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE : A CHAT WITH DANIEL SCIOLI (The Economist)

7. ARGENTINA’S ELECTION WILL END THE POLITICS OF FANTASY (Bloomberg News)

8. ARGENTINA INVESTORS CONSIDER ELECTION OUTCOMES FOR PATH FORWARD (Bloomberg News)

9. WAS THIS HEDGE FUND BILLIONAIRE’S EPIC ARGENTINA CLASH WORTH IT? (Bloomberg News)

10. ARGENTINA’S EURO DEBT HOLDERS TELL BOND TRUSTEE TO STEP DOWN (Bloomberg News)

11. ARGENTINE LEADER’S WELFARE PROGRAMS HELP HER PARTY IN ELECTION (Reuters News)

12. U.S. JUDGE RULES FOR MORE ARGENTINE CREDITORS SUING FOR PAYMENT (Reuters News)

13. ARGENTINE EXPORTS DECLINE AS SALES ABROAD OF MANUFACTURES PLUMMET IN SEPTEMBER (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)

14. IT’S ALL (STILL) COMING UP CRISTINA (Foreign Policy)

15. LITTLE NEAR-TERM HOPE FOR ARGENTINA’S ECONOMY DESPITE ELECTIONS: PAVILLION (Barron’s Blog)

16. UTILITIES, BANKS LOOK ATTRACTIVE AHEAD OF ARGENTINA’S ELECTIONS: RAYMOND JAMES (Barron’s Blog)

17. 70 YEARS LATER, PERON’S POLITICS STILL REIGN IN ARGENTINA (Forbes)

18. SOCIAL PROGRAMS HERE TO STAY IN ARGENTINA (Truth -Out org)

19. ARGENTINA VOTES, PART 1: WHAT’S GOING ON? (America Blog)

20. AS AN ERA ENDS IN ARGENTINA, MORE HATE THAN LOVE BETWEEN POPE FRANCIS AND THE KIRCHNERS (VICE News Online)

21. ARGENTINA’S NEXT PRESIDENT WILL INHERIT ECONOMIC TROUBLES (Stratfor online)

1. ARGENTINA EXPECTED TO END DEBT STANDOFF AFTER VOTE (The New York Times)
By Jonathan Gilbert
23 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES — As Argentina prepares for a new president, a glimmer of hope has emerged that a ferocious standoff with American hedge funds may be resolved within months.

On Sunday, Argentines will vote on who will succeed President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. The front-runner, Daniel Scioli, has at times shared her taste for fiery populist oratory.

Nonetheless, if elected president, he is expected to quietly seek a compromise with the hedge funds over nearly $100 billion of bonds that Argentina defaulted on in 2001.

”It’s very important to close out the holdouts issue,” said Gustavo Marangoni, an economic adviser to Mr. Scioli. ”It’s like a pebble blocking a funnel of investment.”

The standoff has kept the country locked out of global lending markets. Mrs. Kirchner has maneuvered to reach the end of her presidency without the need to return to those markets, but a new leader would need access to help rectify Argentina’s economy, analysts said.

”Whoever wants to govern Argentina needs a country with access to capital markets,” said Federico Thomsen, an economist based in Buenos Aires.

That will mean ending the feud with the hedge funds, often referred to as holdout creditors — or ”vultures,” in the words of Mrs. Kirchner’s government — led by a unit of the billionaire Paul E. Singer’s firm, Elliott Management.

The impasse dates to 2012, when Judge Thomas P. Griesa of the Federal District Court in Manhattan ruled that Argentina could not service the debt it restructured in the years after its 2001 default if it did not pay the litigating holdout creditors, in full, at the same time.

Argentina refused to accept the ruling, earning rebukes from Judge Griesa. Even facing the judgment of a United States federal court, Argentina issued dollar-denominated bonds this year under local law, but it had to pay premium interest rates of 8 to 9 percent. This angered the holdouts, who claim the new debt was marketed internationally and therefore subject to Judge Griesa’s ruling.

Mrs. Kirchner, 62, who is not permitted to run for a third consecutive term, has led a crusade against the hedge funds, accusing them of extorting her government.

Polls here suggest that Mr. Scioli could win on Sunday without the need for a runoff. His closest challenger is Mauricio Macri, a former businessman and soccer club president who has traditionally been viewed more favorably by investors. Mr. Macri has said that he would negotiate with the holdouts.

Yet politics colors these positions. Mr. Macri’s statements appear to have been intended as just criticisms of the government. In interviews, Mr. Macri’s economic advisers said they would let the issue languish and straighten out the economy by addressing other problems.

”I don’t think it’s life or death for Argentina,” said an adviser, referring to resolving debt dispute.

And on the campaign trail, Mr. Scioli, having been endorsed by Mrs. Kirchner, has been nearly as aggressive as the president in calling for a ”world without vultures.”

Mr. Scioli, a former powerboat racer turned state governor, indicated that he would not improve on the terms agreed to by a majority of bondholders in debt swaps in 2005 and 2010. They received about a 65 percent ”haircut” with some deals enhanced by payments pegged to Argentina’s growth rate. That is an offer that the hedge funds have already rejected.

”Argentina’s proposal is clear,” Mr. Scioli, 58, told reporters recently, smoking a cigarillo on the sidelines of a boxing match at a sports club he built next to his home in the Paraná River delta. ”We have to see now if they have the willingness to adapt to what Argentina has been offering.”

Mr. Scioli’s reliance on Mrs. Kirchner ”means he cannot address these issues publicly,” Nicholas Watson, who analyzes Argentina for Teneo Intelligence, a global advisory firm based in New York, wrote in a note to clients.

But if Mr. Scioli wins the presidency, he is expected to forge his own path, independent of the ideological constraints of Mrs. Kirchner’s leftist political movement, known as Kirchnerismo.

”Kirchnerismo is over,” said an adviser to Mr. Scioli who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ”Soon enough, they’ll realize.”

Mr. Marangoni and Mario Blejer, another adviser, said that Mr. Scioli’s government would reinitiate talks that have long been at an impasse.

”I’m in favor of opening negotiations with a very firm stance,” Mr. Blejer said in an interview.

A third adviser, Miguel Bein, who could not be reached for comment, said at a conference in May that Argentina might pay up to 70 percent of the roughly $1.7 billion owed to the holdouts, a sum that includes interest.

That may not be enough to satisfy the holdouts, who have asked for nothing less than the full $1.7 billion.

Mr. Scioli is expected to make other changes in economic policy, including reducing monetization of the fiscal deficit to calm inflation, which is estimated at more than 25 percent, and a gradual devaluation of the peso that could help lure foreign investment and boost competitiveness.

These will require tapping global bond markets to bring in dollars, said Jimena Blanco, who monitors Argentina for Verisk Maplecroft, a risk analysis firm in London.

In the short term, the country may also need those dollars to bolster the central bank’s reserves, which dropped far below $30 billion this month after the government paid off $5.9 billion of maturing bonds.

Although many economists agree that Argentina should end the dispute with the hedge funds so it can bring in dollars by issuing debt abroad, others offer another argument: that the country can talk but delay a deal until the hedge funds cede ground and, in the meantime, attract big foreign investment or even issue debt.

Another presidential candidate, Sergio Massa, 43, an energetic lawmaker who bolted from Mrs. Kirchner’s party in 2013, supports this approach.

Mr. Massa said he would seek to strengthen his negotiating position with the holdouts by first returning to debt markets, using risk mitigation instruments offered by regional development banks to issue bonds at around half the rate investors currently demand.

”Argentina cannot go to Griesa’s bench and surrender,” Mr. Massa said at a lunch with reporters.

If the government reaches a settlement in the coming months, it could still have trouble raising money if it does not also make repairs to its economy, said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America strategy at Jefferies in New York. She cited Argentina’s fiscal deficit, which is estimated at about 7 percent of gross domestic product, and the precariousness of the central bank’s reserves.

”Does legal access to the markets mean market demand?” Ms. Morden said. ”No. The markets aren’t lenders of last resort.”

2. A CANDIDATE TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE DRAWS ATTENTION, AND CRITICISM, IN ARGENTINA (The New York Times)
By Frederick Bernas and Diane Ghogomu
23 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES — Election season in Argentina is heralded by images of smiling candidates, gazing down from billboards and up from fliers distributed by zealous volunteers. Many names strike a familiar chord with voters, but this year an unfamiliar face suddenly materialized, drawing millions of eyes: Omar Obaca.

”Who knows, he might turn out to be another Obama,” said Laura Buccafusca, 67, a well-coiffured retiree who was walking her dog in the Congreso area, reflecting on the American president’s relatively high popularity here.

But Omar Obaca has no chance of winning. Indeed, he is not even running. He is a fictitious African-Argentine candidate, dreamed up by an advertising company to satirize Argentine, and perhaps American, politics, and setting off a whirlwind in the process.

The comedy campaign has exploded into an Internet sensation, channeling a desire for change after more than a decade of one-family rule — and igniting a fierce debate here over the ways in which black people are portrayed in a society that has long prioritized its ties to Europe.

The billboards advertise an online video series that has drawn more than seven million views. Some of the episodes showcase farcical policies like ”Everyone Dressed as Police” to reduce street crime; paying Argentina’s national debt to China with caramel candy; or rigging the weak Argentine peso to a fantastically strong exchange rate of four American dollars.

”Obaca is the politician that all politicians want to be, but they can’t — because they don’t have ideas and they’re not black,” said Sebastián Rodas, a director at NAH! Contenidos, the advertising company behind the project. ”We’re making fun of the idea that someone can use their color to market themselves in a political campaign. He has proposals, but the first thing is: ‘I’m black, I look like Obama. Maybe that’s good. Vote for me!”’

Some Argentines of African origin have expressed excitement at seeing one of their own in the limelight.

”It gives me hope to see an Afro-descendent as protagonist — this is the first time an Afro actor has had a mass audience,” said Paulo da Silva, 27, an African-Argentine actor whose family left Brazil for Buenos Aires when he was 3. ”For every 10 roles that exist for a white person, there is one for a black person.”

But some leading activists counter that Obaca revives old stereotypes. The newspaper Pagina 12 recently published a scathing op-ed that accused the campaign of ”resorting to one of the oldest traditions of aristocratic families of yesteryear: the black buffoon.”

Its author, Federico Pita, president of the African Diaspora of Argentina, wrote that ”naturalization of racism and white supremacy” had allowed a character who ”ridicules, stereotypes, stigmatizes” to gain huge popularity.

Carlos Álvarez, president of a group called Agrupación Xangô, said that community members had filed a complaint with the National Institute Against Discrimination, Xenophobia and Racism. He called Obaca a ”vulgar” stereotype of a ”happy black guy to liven up the party,” exemplifying ”structural racism.”

The advertisers at NAH, who are generally dismissive of criticism of the campaign, said they were fascinated by the campaign that swept Mr. Obama to victory in 2008, including its groundbreaking social media strategy.

”Political marketing is totally fake, but the first Obama campaign was very genuine,” Mr. Rodas said. ”They didn’t fear doing things differently.”

The actor who plays Mr. Obaca, Marcos Moreno Martínez, grins and radiates an easy charisma, talking in local slang with emphatic hand gestures that evoke his theatrical background.

He got the call for what he described as ”just another casting” in 2010 and was instantly selected for a pilot episode, filmed on the spot. NAH had intended to produce the Obaca series for elections in 2011, but no buyers emerged until the online channel FWTV came forward last year.

Months later, Mr. Martínez, 38, said he felt like a ”star” every time he stepped onto the streets of Buenos Aires, as steady streams of fans request selfies by his side.

”It never ceases to surprise me,” the actor said. ”Kids in other provinces see me, even when I’m not dressed as Obaca, and say, ‘What a genius, I’ll vote for you!”’

He was previously known for playing an inmate in ”Tumberos,” a successful TV drama about corruption and prison life during tough times after Argentina’s 2001 financial crisis.

That led to film and theater roles, but Mr. Martínez needed more income. Like some other struggling actors, he worked as a taxi driver for several years, before selling his car to invest in materials to build a small house that he now rents out. He lives in the provincial city of Luján, about 42 miles from Buenos Aires.

”Nobody ever gave me anything,” he said, recalling the years of crushing three-hour commutes from his home into the capital, where he attended theater classes as a university student. As well as acting, he plays percussion in a Latin dance band and runs music workshops at a school in his neighborhood.

”Obaca arrived at a moment with a lot of political violence,” Mr. Martínez said, describing a polarized atmosphere that breeds social tension.

”People needed to laugh at a fictional politician who promises an Argentina that will not happen,” he added. ”That’s why they get on board with the Obaca dream.”

On Sunday, national elections will bring an official end to 12 years of ”Kirchnerism,” the political movement named for the late president, Néstor Kirchner, who was married to — and succeeded by — the incumbent, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

After winning four-year terms in 2007 and 2011, she is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term.

Although some in Argentina say the country is ready for a political shift, continuity is expected. The front-runner, Daniel Scioli, is a former vice president who has been governor of Buenos Aires Province since 2007 and was endorsed by Mrs. Kirchner.

”None of the candidates has been able to generate a perception of something new,” said Philip Kitzberger, a professor of political science at Torcuato Di Tella University.

But critics contend the Obaca campaign comes at the expense of Argentina’s small black population. Argentina’s 2010 census reported that about 150,000 (or just 0.4 percent) of its 40 million people considered themselves ”Afro-descendent” — an ethnic category that was reinstated after more than 130 years of not appearing on the survey.

Erika Edwards, an assistant professor of Latin American history at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte, said that such a tiny number was probably an underestimate. Argentina’s first census showed that blacks made up about a third of the population in the late 18th century, with most arriving as African slaves. But a huge European immigration, specifically called for by the first Argentine laws, shifted the country’s demographics.

”Miscegenation and racial mixing were actually encouraged under the guise of ‘blanqueamiento’ — the concerted whitening of the nation,” Dr. Edwards said.

In the mid-19th century, Domingo Faustino Sarmiento, revered as the father of education in modern Argentina, announced the ”extinction” of African-Argentines at a time when the black community still published its own newspapers in Buenos Aires.

Despite such assessments, African-Argentines like José Agustín Ferreyra, a prolific filmmaker, and Oscar Alemán, a versatile musician who played jazz with Louis Armstrong, gained recognition in their fields. But African-Argentines still say such accomplishments are neglected.

Mr. Martínez defended his character in the Obaca campaign, contending that there were ”much worse things” than a black politician in a suit who is broadly admired. ”I was asked to play delinquents, thieves or drug dealers so many times that one day I decided to never accept that again,” he said.

3. DRUG ALLEGATIONS CLOUD ARGENTINE POLL (Financial Times)
By Benedict Mander in Buenos Aires
October 23, 2015

Sensational allegations of drug trafficking have done little to dent Aníbal Fernández’s chances of becoming the governor of Buenos Aires, the second-most powerful political office in Argentina.

But they may have a knock-on effect on the presidential poll also taking place on Sunday, dragging down his Peronist ally, the presidential candidate and current governor of Buenos Aires province Daniel Scioli.

In order to secure a comfortable nationwide victory, the centrist Mr Scioli needs a candidate in the populous province who can win by a much wider margin than Mr Fernández.

Shocking accusations that Mr Fernández masterminded a series of grisly murders in order to take control of an ephedrine trafficking ring — his alleged alias was “the Walrus” on account of his bushy moustache — have contributed to him becoming a “lead life jacket” for Mr Scioli’s electoral performance, says Carlos Germano, a political analyst.

“In the 32 years since Argentina regained democracy, I have never seen an election this close,” says Mr Germano.

The allegations, widely reported in Argentina, have been made by a convicted gangster from prison and have been dismissed by Mr Fernández as a political smear driven by opponents and elements of the media.

The presidential contest is hugely important for Argentina, as it determines the pace and scope of reform needed to turn around one of Latin America’s largest economies.

It will also determine whether Peronism — the political movement that has controlled the country for most of the last 70 years — remains in power after 12 years of populist rule by president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner.

Daniel Scioli
Buenos Aires governor and presidential candidate for the ruling Frente para la Victoria (Front for Victory) party, Daniel Scioli, waves during a rally in Quilmes, Buenos Aires Province, on October 20, 2015. Argentine will hold general elections on October 25, in which for an outright winner the candidate needs 40 percent of votes and a 10-point lead ahead of the runner-up. Otherwise, it will head to a runoff on November 22. AFP PHOTO / EITAN ABRAMOVICHEITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP/Getty Images
Born into a middle-class family, Daniel Scioli first distinguished himself when he negotiated his kidnapped brother’s ransom and release from leftwing guerrillas when he was just 18. But it was his sporting career that brought him fame. After losing his right arm in a powerboat racing accident in 1989, he went on to win several world championships over the next decade. After being elected to congress in 1997, Néstor Kirchner chose him as his vice-president in the 2003 elections.

Mr Scioli’s main rival is the centre-right Mauricio Macri, the market-friendly mayor of the city of Buenos Aires campaigning for change.

Most polls show Mr Scioli within a hair’s breadth of winning 40 per cent of the vote, with Mr Macri polling at close to 30 per cent, making the election too close to call due to polls’ statistical margin of error. Although no pollster disputes that Mr Scioli will win the most votes on Sunday, there is little consensus over whether he will gain enough to avoid a more unpredictable run-off vote on November 22. In order to win outright, contestants must gain 45 per cent of the vote or 40 per cent with a ten-point lead over the runner-up.

Although Mr Scioli is the would-be successor of a president leaving a deeply toxic economic legacy — including a fiscal deficit of about 7 per cent, net foreign exchange reserves of less than $10bn and one of the highest inflation rates in the world — paradoxically most voters see him as the candidate best placed to fix these problems. “Corruption is always an issue, but it won’t define the elections — a bit like education. The fundamental issue here is the economy,” says Mr Germano.

Many Argentines are still suspicious of the “neoliberal” economic policies characterising the 1990s that they fear Mr Macri would resort to in order to kick-start the economy.

And such is the huge sway of Peronism — a political philosophy whose tenets vary according to who fronts it — that Mr Macri attempted to woo undecided Peronist voters by unveiling a statue of the working class hero, Juan Perón, in a square in the city of Buenos Aires.

Mauricio Macri
Presidential candidate Mauricio Macri speaks during a rally in Lanus, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, October 21, 2015. The Argentinian ruling party’s candidate Daniel Scioli is primed to win the presidential election outright on October 25, with a commanding lead over his nearest rivals, two polls published in local papers on Sunday showed. His closest rival, Macri, the center-right mayor of Buenos Aires city, is seen getting 28 percent of the vote in the election, according to the poll. REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci
The son of a powerful Italian business magnate says it was a 12-day kidnapping ordeal at the hands of corrupt police officers in 1991 that convinced him to go into politics. First, though, he spent a decade running popular football club Boca Juniors. He turned to politics in 2003 and later became a congressman before being elected in 2007 as mayor of Buenos Aires.

Meanwhile, Sergio Massa, the dissident Peronist candidate in third place with around 20 per cent of support, is further complicating Mr Macri’s presidential bid by attempting to persuade voters that he has a better chance of defeating Mr Scioli in a second round vote.

Indeed, it is Argentina’s divided opposition that cleared the way for the Kirchner couple’s self-styled “victorious decade”, which saw the economy’s revival after a devastating crash in 2001. Since then, the Radical party in power at the time, which has traditionally been Argentina’s other main political group, has never recovered the population’s confidence.

Nowhere is the outcome more unpredictable than in the province of Buenos Aires, whose 17m population represent 38 per cent of voters.

Traditionally a Peronist heartland due to its largely working class population, Mr Fernández’s rival from Mr Macri’s “Let’s Change” coalition, María Eugenia Vidal, has soared in polls amid the drug allegations. Mr Fernandez still, however, looks likely to win.

“In a normal country, Vidal, a fresh-faced, experienced politician with no corruption smudges and a reputation as a skilled administrator, would be a shoe-in in an election where she is competing with an old-style Peronist who has been battered by purported links to drug trafficking,” says one jaded observer.

http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/582ea608-78ca-11e5-933d-efcdc3c11c89.img

“It’s a very volatile situation,” says José Octavio Bordón, a former presidential candidate and provincial governor.

He argues that although voters are discontent, the absence of a crisis situation like in 2001 means that some 15-20 per cent of voters remain undecided, with “none of the presidential candidates inspiring either great enthusiasm or great fear”.

“The coin has been tossed, but it’s still in the air,” he says.

4. ARGENTINA’S ELECTIONS : THE END OF KIRCHNERISMO (The Economist)
October 24, 2015

And the beginning of saner economic policies, perhaps.

FIRST, she thrust her finger skyward. Then came a right-left combo, punctuated with an eruption of hip swaying. Beside her with a rigid smile stood Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province and presidential candidate, looking like a child mortified by the antics of his mother. The campaign rally, held earlier this month, was meant to be for him, but the outgoing Argentine president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, stole the spotlight.

For the last time, Mr Scioli hopes. On October 25th Argentina will hold the first round of elections to choose a new president, along with half the lower house of Congress and a third of the Senate. They will bring to an end 12 years of government under Ms Fernández and her husband, Néstor Kirchner, who died in 2010. The main question to be settled is how much continuity there will be with the Kirchners’ populist and divisive rule. Mr Scioli is running as Ms Fernández’s heir, under her Peronist party, the Front for Victory (FPV), yet hopes to be his own man. His main rival, Mauricio Macri, the mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, leads an electoral coalition called Cambiemos, “Let’s Change”.

Argentina needs change. As Ms Fernández slips out of office the economy is starting to crumble. Currency controls and trade restrictions, which she imposed in 2011, are choking productivity; inflation hovers at around 25%. The budget deficit is swelling and foreign-exchange reserves are dwindling. Argentina cannot seek external financing until it ends its standoff with creditors who rejected a debt-restructuring plan. Unless the new president quickly reverses Ms Fernández’s populist policies, a crisis is inevitable.

Few Argentines know that yet. Many credit the Kirchners with rescuing the economy from a slump in the early 2000s and for the growth that ensued (which owed a lot to high prices for soy beans, the biggest export). They were open-handed leaders: 40% of the population receives a pension, salary or welfare from the government, a share that has doubled since Ms Fernández took office in 2007. Among recent presidents, only her husband left office with higher approval ratings.

That is why Mr Scioli subjects himself to awkward appearances with her. Recent polls suggest that he is close to the threshold needed for victory in the first round: 40% of the vote with a lead of ten percentage points over his nearest competitor. Mr Macri’s lacklustre campaign has been hurt by corruption allegations against a congressional candidate from his coalition. He splits the anti-Fernández vote with Sergio Massa, a feisty Peronist who left FPV and is third in the polls. If Mr Macri can force a second round, to be held on November 22nd, he might beat Mr Scioli by picking up Mr Massa’s votes. Poliarquía, a polling group, puts support for Mr Scioli in a run-off at 49%, with Mr Macri at 45%.

Whoever wins will have to disappoint voters. To restore competitiveness and open production bottlenecks the next president will have to allow the peso to depreciate and lift restrictions on exports and imports. The gap between the official value of the peso and the “blue-dollar” (ie, free-market) rate has widened to around 70%. Subsidies will have to be cut to narrow the budget deficit, expected to be about 6% of GDP this year (see chart). The central bank is likely to raise interest rates to force down inflation. That may trigger a recession. To have any hope of attracting international capital Argentina will have to strike a deal with its hated creditors.

Mr Scioli hopes that both kirchneristas and their foes will see in him what they want to see. The country can solve its economic problems with “no [fiscal] adjustment, no mega-devaluation and no [economic] shrinkage,” he told The Economist. Any measures will be “gradual”. An inflow of dollars will keep the peso strong. “There will be joy,” he promises.

Mr Macri is more market-minded than Mr Scioli and does admit that the peso will have to devalue. But he also downplays the hardship to come. That said, the front-runners have more in common with each other than they do with Ms Fernández. They are less confrontational and have gathered impressive teams of advisers to whom they listen and delegate. Each is eager to repair Argentina’s strained relations with the United States. Both want to attract investment, relax trade controls and resolve the debt standoff.

What distinguishes Mr Macri most is his determination to break with the Peronist practice of aggrandising presidential power at the expense of other institutions. Ms Fernández enfeebled Congress, the central bank and the official statistics agency, which she stopped from reporting bad news. She undermined the independence of the press and had a go at the judiciary. Mr Macri’s advisers say he would build up institutions with the power to check the presidency. He “will do a real shock to recover the institutional credibility of the country very fast,” promises Federico Sturzenegger, a pro-Macri congressman.

The risk, though, is that Mr Macri might not be able to do much of anything. If elected he will lack a majority in both houses of Congress. At most, two of Argentina’s 24 governors will be his allies. His campaign manager, Marcos Peña, insists that he overcame similar hurdles as mayor of Buenos Aires. But managing a rich city is far different from governing a fractious country of 40m. The two non-Peronist presidents since the military dictatorship ended in 1983 were both forced out of office early.

Mr Scioli has a different worry: that Ms Fernández will continue to upstage him after she leaves the presidency in December, especially if the economy runs into trouble. Many congressmen are loyal to her, as is his likely successor as governor of Buenos Aires province, the country’s most populous. Ms Fernández has said little about her plans, but the song that set her dancing may provide a clue: “A thousand years can pass, you will see a lot fall down. But if we stick together, they won’t hold us back.” It did not sound like a farewell.

5. ARGENTINA’S ELECTION : CLEANING UP AFTER CRISTINA (The Economist)
October 24, 2015

The front-runner promises continuity. The country needs change

FOR eight years Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has beguiled, enraged, entertained and divided Argentines. She is one of Latin America’s most popular presidents, but her combative style has alienated some of her citizens and much of the outside world. Constitutionally unable to run again in Argentina’s general elections, the first round of which takes place on October 25th, she will be succeeded by a duller figure. The two leading candidates to replace her, Daniel Scioli of her Peronist Front for Victory and Mauricio Macri, Buenos Aires’s mayor, have none of her pizzazz. But either would be a great improvement.


True to her Peronist pedigree, Ms Fernández has hoarded power and suppressed dissent. She has bent the central bank to her will, muzzled the government’s statistics institute and bullied the media. She has tried, less successfully, to suborn the independence of the judiciary.

She leaves an economy in even worse shape than it looks. Like other commodity producers, Argentina is suffering from falling prices for its exports. To this, Ms Fernández has added woes of her own making. The government keeps the peso overvalued. It taxes soybeans and other exports, thereby punishing the country’s most competitive producers. It has repelled foreign capital by defaulting on debt and refusing to settle with its creditors. To husband foreign exchange, it restricts imports. Ms Fernández distracted Argentines with lavish spending on welfare and energy subsidies. That trick will not work for much longer. The country is in danger of running out of reserves; the budget deficit this year is likely to be 6% of GDP; inflation is estimated at 25%; and growth is absent.

The next president will need to escape disaster. That will mean letting the peso fall, reducing subsidies and ending the stand-off with creditors. In the short run, the volte face will hurt. Spending cuts, plus higher interest rates to contain inflation, are likely to push the economy into recession. Only as exports pick up and capital flows back will confidence, and growth, gradually return.

All the main presidential candidates would change the economy’s course, though it is hard to tell from their campaigns just how they would go about it. Running as Ms Fernández’s heir, Mr Scioli suggests that he does not need to make abrupt changes. Despite being a speedboat racer in his youth, he wants to change the economy’s course only gradually. Sergio Massa, a Peronist who has fallen out with Ms Fernández and is running third in the polls, is somewhat more forthright about the need for adjustment. But it is Mr Macri, an economic liberal, who comes closest to admitting the scale of the problem. He acknowledges the need for a big devaluation and seems readier than his rivals to remove capital controls.

Choose Macri-economics
That is one reason to prefer Mr Macri to his two Peronist rivals. The other is the prospect that he would undo the damage Ms Fernández has inflicted on Argentina’s politics. His team promises an “institutional shock”, a change of practice that would make the presidency more accountable and strengthen other bodies, including the central bank and the judiciary. That is the sort of change that Argentina needs if its democracy and economy are to mature.

It will not happen under Mr Scioli. His defenders say that he will be better at dealing with Congress, which will be dominated by his allies. The others, they say, will get nothing done. That is a risk. But the risk of obstruction is a bad reason to pick a second-best president. Argentines should choose Mr Macri.

6. ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE : A CHAT WITH DANIEL SCIOLI (The Economist)
Oct 22, 2015

The Economist meets the front-runner in Argentina’s elections

ON OCTOBER 19th, Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province, who is the front-runner in Argentina’s presidential election, granted an interview to The Economist. The first round of the election is to be held on October 25th.

As he ate pastries, called supporters and smoked a mini-cigar, here’s how he answered The Economist’s questions. The interview is edited and translated from Spanish.

THE ECONOMIST: Before we start, we wanted to thank you for having us here and giving us this interview.
DANIEL SCIOLI: International relations and the international media will always have room in my agenda.

TE: What would the first 100 days of your presidency look like?
DS: Our agenda is one of the development of the country, which includes accelerating everything that has to do with investment, the energy sector, incentivising the repatriation of capital, gradually addressing inflation, competitiveness of regional economies, subsidies. Always prioritising having a strong internal market.

TE: Could you be a bit more specific?
DS: The country is already stable. No shock or comprehensive economic package is needed. What people see in me is a calm, trustworthy person who can successfully carry out an agenda of integration and foment production. We want to produce more in the energy sector and agricultural sector, and do more in science, technology, tourism and sustainable mining. We want normality. Not to mention, the new president will assume office right when the vacation season begins.

TE: So you’re saying things will be tranquil? Historically, December has been quite rife with conflict and wage strikes.
DS: There will be joy about the fact that all is good—peaceful holidays. With a lot of optimism.

TE: You have said that you want to keep the exchange rate regulated. How do you plan to do that?
DS: A responsible administration of the Central Bank. The peso won’t weaken because, as more dollars enter the country, which will happen, there won’t be any problem. Both exchange rates [the official rate and the free-market “blue dollar” rate] will converge.

TE: And where will the dollars come from?
DS: Exports, repatriation of capital, swaps, for example the one with China, accords with Brazil, international credits from the Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank, Latin American Development Bank.

TE: Recently you called the holdout creditors [who refused a debt restructuring plan put forward by Argentina] “vultures”. Does this mean we can expect you to follow the same hard line with them that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner [the current president] has?

DS: Everyone calls distressed investment funds that. Argentina has the will and the capacity to pay. But we want to do it in just and equitable conditions. And conditions that are sustainable for the country. We are not closed, but we also aren’t going to pay what they’re looking for because it’s disproportionate with respect to what we agreed to with the rest of our creditors. The idea is to look for a settlement with the terms that the rest of the creditors agreed to. That is the position that Argentina currently is taking. The problem is there’s another candidate going around saying he wants to pay the holdouts everything they are asking and so they’re waiting eagerly to see who wins the elections. The truth is that it is a speculation that won’t come to fruition. But beyond the holdout issue, Argentina is going to continue growing, continue developing, and it won’t have any problems–either in attracting investments, or dollars—no problems.

TE: What measures do you plan to implement to increase confidence?
DS: I will make decisions that will generate growing interest in Argentina. They will all be reasonable, gradual, inspire investment and create a very good business environment. That’s how I work.

Jorge Telerman, Mr Scioli’s campaign chief: The Economist knows about the conference you participated in with investors the other week. There must have been $15 billion at those tables. And what was the mood?

DS: You mean, did people like me?
JT: Yes, they loved you.

DS: I was the candidate to make the best impression and I went in jeans and sneakers.
TE: What do you plan to do to reduce the fiscal deficit, which is expected to reach 6% of GDP this year?
DS: Seek economic efficiency. Streamline state companies, make sure subsidies are only being granted to those who need them and seek investment. Even Cuba is saying it’s time for economic sustainability. Even Raúl Castro is saying that. We’ll have an efficient environment. There will be no [fiscal] adjustment, no mega-devaluation and no [economic] shrinkage, because that generates social consequences.

TE: Your advisors say you want to lower inflation, which is now 25% and is predicted to rise next year, to a single-digit level in four years.
DS: We’re going to do it before that.

TE: How?
DS: Investment and increasing productivity in the fields of science, technology and logistics.

TE: The other day Ms Fernández said that the “project” must continue…
DS: The project has certain core elements: industrialisation of the country, decreasing the country’s debt burden, recovering YPF [the state owned oil company] and the railroads and implementing social programs.

TE: So you will not continue with all elements of Ms Fernández’s model?
DS: The demands of a society are always evolving.

TE: And Ms Fernández? It is the first time in recent history that an Argentine president is leaving office with such high popularity ratings. What role will she have after her term ends on December 10th?
DS: It’s great that she’s so popular—great for the country and for her. Her political experience should not be underappreciated. I like to consult everyone.

TE: And will she retain power? A lot of people are very loyal to her.
DS: But she’s part of the project. She’s part of our political team. It’s not us and them. We’re all part of the same political project. There have been
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ARGENTINE UPDATE (DELAYED) TO Oct 14, 2O15

21 octubre, 2015

FRIDAY, October 9th

1. BEHIND THE SCENES, POPE FRANCIS WIELDS CLOUT IN ARGENTINA HOMELAND (The Washington Times)

2. CRISTINA FERNANDEZ, ARGENTINA’S OUTGOING PRESIDENT, DETERMINED TO PROTECT LEGACY, CLOUT (The Washington Times)

3. HOSPITAL CLOWNS GET SERIOUS; ARGENTINIAN LAW MAKES LAUGHTER, BONDING BEST MEDICINE (USA Today)

4. ARGENTINA BONDHOLDERS MAY WANT TO RECONSIDER ELECTION FAVORITE (Bloomberg News)

5. KIRCHNER LOCKS IN HER MODEL IN ARGENTINA (CATO Institute)

1. BEHIND THE SCENES, POPE FRANCIS WIELDS CLOUT IN ARGENTINA HOMELAND (The Washington Times)
By Andre F. Radzischewski Special to the Washington Times
Thursday, October 8, 2015

BUENOS AIRES | Charismatic and canny, Pope Francis has forged close ties with global power brokers and is said to have swayed President Obama’s views on tough issues such as Cuba and Syria.

But the pontiff has also found time to meddle in the day-to-day politics of his native Argentina — and may have played a behind-the-scenes role in preventing the premature departure of President Cristina Fernandez, his one-time nemesis.

Following the mysterious death of a prosecutor who had indicted Mrs. Fernandez on conspiracy charges, Francis in January stepped in forcefully to keep the president from being deposed in a “soft coup,” The Washington Times learned from a close personal friend of the pope.

Local magnates had plotted to seize the moment and oust the president after Alberto Nisman was found with a gunshot wound to his head hours before he was due to testify on a supposed top-level cover-up of Iran’s suspected involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

But through calls and intermediaries, Francis persuaded “the right people at the right moment” to let Mrs. Fernandez serve our her second term, set to expire Dec. 10, Gustavo Vera, a Buenos Aires legislator and social activist who maintains a close friendship with the former Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, said.

Worried that such an ouster might be followed by a large-scale devaluation of Argentina’s currency — a measure that would have disproportionately affected the poor — “Francis intervened strongly so that the constitutional continuity [would] be respected,” he said.

Helping a democratically elected leader finish her term should amount to “common sense for any Argentine,” Vatican protocol official Monsignor Guillermo Karcher, a close Francis confidant, said in an interview from Rome.

Monsignor Karcher would not comment on the specifics of the January incident. But the pope has never shied away from involving himself in local politics, a trait highlighted during last month’s visit to the United States, where he weighed in on hot-button topics from immigration to capital punishment and met with Kim Davis, the controversial Kentucky county clerk briefly jailed for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

The pope respects secular institutions and does not mean to interfere in the affairs of sovereign nations, Monsignor Karcher said. Still, Francis “does speak out on important topics,” he said. “He does not have prejudice against anybody. He speaks with one [side] and the other,” the Vatican official added when asked about the Davis encounter.

The boldness of his pontificate, though, may be felt strongest in his native Argentina, where Francis is said to have pulled strings in day-to-day politics a number of times, even though he has yet to visit his native land in the 2 years since his surprise selection as pope.

In January, he seemed to back the nomination of a young jurist to the Supreme Court, an effort that eventually failed because of the candidate’s inexperience. Some analysts say Francis may even have led Mrs. Fernandez to anoint Buenos Aires Gov. Daniel Scioli over more radical rivals as her party’s nominee in the Oct. 25 presidential election.

The relationship between pope and president, meanwhile, has been the subject of much speculation. Mrs. Fernandez had been among Cardinal Bergoglio’s harshest critics during his time as Buenos Aires archbishop, but following Francis’ 2013 election, she made a point of forging more cordial ties with the Jesuit pope.

The pontiff has met with her on more than half a dozen occasions, and the 78-year-old has adopted a “merciful” stand toward the leader known for her harsh rhetoric and confrontational style, Mr. Vera said. “I think he has given her a lesson in humanity,” he said.

2. CRISTINA FERNANDEZ, ARGENTINA’S OUTGOING PRESIDENT, DETERMINED TO PROTECT LEGACY, CLOUT (The Washington Times)
By Andre F. Radzischewski
Thursday, October 8, 2015

BUENOS AIRES — For the first time in a dozen years, the Kirchner family is set to leave the Casa Rosada — the Argentine version of the White House — but President Cristina Fernandez’s grip on power will likely extend far beyond the vote in two weeks to determine her successor.

Amid accusations of large-scale corruption and opposition charges of widespread electoral fraud, Ms. Fernandez is determined to do whatever is necessary to protect her legacy and, so critics say, the clout she needs to shield herself from prosecution. Anything but a lame duck, the 62-year-old leftist president has refused to cede center stage to Buenos Aires Gov. Daniel Scioli, her own Justicialist Party’s presidential nominee, making an already rough campaign even more complex.

During the past 12 years, Ms. Fernandez and her late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, have governed the country in a style that critics dub “monarchical,” and they originally intended to alternate in the presidency to circumvent limits on consecutive terms.

Although Mr. Kirchner’s unexpected 2010 death torpedoed that plan, Ms. Fernandez has shrewdly preserved — and extended — the clan’s influence as she went after independent judges and prosecutors, cut federal funds from provinces led by critical governors and stacked government ministries and state-run companies with fierce loyalists.

“They continue to run the country as if they were its owners,” said opposition lawmaker Fernando Iglesias, author the local best-seller “It’s Peronism, Stupid,” referring to the country’s longtime strongman. “I believe the country is worse off than in 2001,” he said recalling the economic crisis that ended in riots and the resignations of two presidents.

A staggering economy, stubbornly high inflation and the mysterious death of a prosecutor, Alberto Nisman, have all led to Ms. Fernandez’s popularity suffering significantly since her 2011 landslide re-election. But many Argentines still back the president’s Peronist wing, and Mr. Scioli, her hand-picked successor, is still favored to take the reins after the Oct. 25 vote.

Mr. Scioli’s main challenger is Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, a pro-market onetime businessman who once was seen as a real threat to end the Kirchners’ dominance of Argentine politics with a platform seeking to end the state’s economic interventionist ways. But he has been falling in recent polls, hurt in part by the rise of a third candidate, dissident Peronist Sergio Massa, who claimed over a fifth of the vote in a recent poll.

Under Argentine electoral law, a candidate needs 45 percent of the vote — or 40 percent with no other candidate higher than 30 percent — to win outright in the Oct. 25 election. Otherwise, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff in late November.

With his poll numbers surging, Mr. Scioli has been taking a front-runner’s approach in recent days, even skipping a televised debate in which Mr. Macri and four other candidates participated. A survey by Ricardo Rouvier and Associates Oct. 2 gave the ruling party candidate 41.3 percent to 30.2 percent for Mr. Macri. Mr. Massa was third with 20.6 percent.

Preserving her clout

Political observers say Ms. Fernandez, despite her shaky political standing, has skillfully maneuvered to preserve her clout after she formally steps down Dec. 10.

To avoid an internal struggle among her own political base, Ms. Fernandez in June tapped Mr. Scioli to lead her Front for Victory, even though she never particularly warmed to the governor of the nation’s most populous province — a key electoral district. His coronation thus did not come without a major concession — the incumbent imposed her chief ideologue, Carlos Zannini, as Mr. Scioli’s running mate.

Nor did Ms. Fernandez hesitate to keep in play the possibility of another run for the presidency when term limits no longer keep her from doing so. “I hope that I do not have to return in 2019,” she said earlier this year, “because that means that who comes after me will be better than me.”

Mr. Zannini’s selection, meanwhile, is only part of a multipronged strategy to cement the Kirchner influence beyond the next president’s inauguration, said Daniel Arzadun, a political scientist and author of a book about the family’s role within Peronism.

Ms. Fernandez is enlisting allies in Congress, where her son and potential political heir, Maximo Kirchner, is running for a seat for the first time. Meanwhile, she can count on the Front for Victory’s ultraloyal grass-roots groups to help her maintain control of the Peronist movement — and come out on top in a potential power struggle with a Scioli-led government.

“The Kirchnerist wing will be left out [of government],” Mr. Arzadun said. But traditionally, “the political power in Argentina revolves around Peronism.”

Irritated by Kirchner loyalists’ lackluster commitment to his campaign, Mr. Scioli said last week that he had no intention of being a “transitional president.” If he moves into the Casa Rosada, the former powerboat racer may well take a page out of the family’s own playbook and cut deals with powerful provincial governors to counter the influence of his predecessor.

But Mr. Macri has not been shy about playing on fears that Ms. Kirchner will be the power behind the throne if her anointed successor wins. When Mr. Scioli declined to take part in the debate Sunday, Mr. Macri remarked, “It looks like [the ruling party] is having trouble defining who is going to govern if it wins the presidency.”

Ironically, a victory by Mr. Macri, the outgoing president’s longtime nemesis, might make it easier for Ms. Fernandez to unite Peronists behind her and hold on to power in the long run, Mr. Arzadun said.

Whomever Argentines pick as their next president Oct. 25, the Kirchners are unlikely to stand by idly during the next four years. But the voters’ choice still matters, Mr. Arzadun said.

3. HOSPITAL CLOWNS GET SERIOUS; ARGENTINIAN LAW MAKES LAUGHTER, BONDING BEST MEDICINE (USA Today)
By Kamilia Lahrichi
9 October 2015

Argentina has a new law for treating children in hospitals that requires doctors to literally send in the clowns.

The groundbreaking law — the first in the world — for Argentina’s largest province, Buenos Aires, was inspired by the “laughter therapy” of U.S. physician Hunter “Patch” Adams and was implemented in August. All public hospitals in the province that have pediatric services are required to work with specially trained clowns.

The project is “complementary medicine to bring joy to sick children in hospitals, their families and the medical and non- medical personnel,” according to the Argentine Senate.

Ezequiel Belsu, 12, was crippled by pain from a pulmonary disease in intensive care at Hospital Piero. He was not moving.

But his eyes suddenly widened and he smiled when three clowns stepped into his room.

“Up until the clowns got in, he felt desperate. It’s the first time he spent so much time away from his home, so it made him feel better,” said the boy’s mother, Rosana Belsu.

The three go by Dr. Lala, Dr. Azul Primavera (blue spring in English) and Dr. Lulo Alegre. Their real names, respectively, are Evelyn Smink, Mara Asuncin Giardina and Miguel Alegre. And they are trained by the organization Puente Clown in Buenos Aires.

Jos Pellucchi, a physician who is director of Payamedicos, an organization of medical clowns, said clowns have been working in more than 150 hospitals in Argentina and Chile since 2002.

The clowns consult with pediatricians to know which patients they can entertain without disturbing them — or being exposed to a disease.

“We do an activity with everyone in the hospital, from the cleaning employees to the security officers and the doctors, to generate well-being in the workplace,” said Gustavo Iribarne, another Puente Clown professional.

The doctors believe the clowns benefit the patients.

“The fact that someone comes in with a white medical coat and a red nose saying the same things (as a doctor) but with a distinct language changes everything,” said Daniel Rivero, head of pediatrics at Hospital Piero.

“Health issues are not just related to our body. Determining factors include and human contact, which can change how our body works,” he said.

Clowns are important because “the hospital’s environment is very strict with white doors and aggressive people who put needles in children’s veins, tell them bad news and make them swallow awful medicine,” he added.

To build a bridge, clowns give patients in neighboring rooms each end of a rope. The clowns then relay jokes and messages between rooms.

This way, Ezequiel can communicate with his hospital neighbor, 12-year-old Sofia Benites from Paraguay who had her appendix removed.

With some patients, the clowns know that laughter isn’t always the best medicine.

“We don’t necessarily want to make people laugh. Although laughter is always curative, we want people to reconnect with their childhood’s world, dreams and fantasies,” Smink said.

4. ARGENTINA BONDHOLDERS MAY WANT TO RECONSIDER ELECTION FAVORITE (Bloomberg News)
By Charlie Devereux and Charlie Devereux
October 8, 2015

*Scioli adviser says candidate will resolve debt dispute sooner
*Bonds have soared on bets the next president will end default

Bond investors have long believed Mauricio Macri to be the presidential candidate in Argentina who will make ending the nation’s decade-long legal dispute with creditors a priority. With the election just three weeks away, they may want to reconsider.

Macri, the leading opposition contender, is pledging to restore Argentina’s finances by jettisoning currency controls and cutting subsidies that have swelled the budget deficit to a 14-year high. According to Macri’s own adviser, Federico Sturzenegger, those priorities will make striking a deal with hedge-fund foes led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management less urgent.

By contrast, Daniel Scioli, the front-runner in polls, will seek to finance the deficit by regaining access to overseas debt markets, rather than making wholesale changes to many of the policies implemented by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, according to former central bank Governor Mario Blejer, a Scioli adviser. That will make reaching an accord with the likes of Singer a priority.

Fernandez’s refusal to abide by a U.S. court ruling requiring Argentina to repay disgruntled creditors led to the nation’s second default in 13 years.

“He’ll be forced to negotiate sooner,” Luis Caputo, the president of Axis Inversiones, a money manager that owns Argentina debt, said from Buenos Aires. “This is more about logic than ideology.”

Argentina hasn’t sold debt under international law since it defaulted on a record $95 billion in 2001. Creditors including Singer rejected the government’s debt restructuring deals in 2005 and 2010 and won the right to full repayment in U.S. courts.

‘Social Constraints’

U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa has blocked the country from honoring its foreign debt until the government reaches a settlement with the so-called holdouts. Fernandez calls the investors “vultures” and has refused to comply with the ruling, triggering another default in 2014.

Scioli and Macri have both indicated they’d hold talks to end the debt dispute. That’s helped spark a 19 percent gain in Argentina’s foreign bonds in the past year, the biggest in emerging markets, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Government notes due 2033 which fell into default last year are trading at 102.33 cents on the dollar.

The winner of the Oct. 25 election will inherit a budget deficit of about 7 percent and foreign reserves hovering near a nine-year low.

“Scioli believes that you cannot fully correct the deficit given the political, social, economic and financial constraints,” Blejer, who is now vice president of Banco Hipotecario, said in an interview at his office in Buenos Aires. “This makes it extremely important to solve the problem of the holdouts because if you can’t close the deficit quick, you need to finance it in a way that is not damaging.”

‘Negotiate Firmly’

Scioli said Wednesday that the conflict with creditors has held Argentina back from progressing. Jorge Telerman, Scioli’s campaign manager, didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

“We’re going to have the willingness to negotiate firmly, with tenacity and open to, in fair and equal terms, finalizing something that has conditioned Argentina,” Scioli said at an event with business executives in Buenos Aires.

Macri is betting that his victory will stoke foreign investment in Argentina, which would help boost the country’s reserves, Sturzenegger, who’s a member of Congress, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s offices in Buenos Aires. By reforming Argentina’s institutions and reducing the risk of investing in the country, Macri can help state-run companies such as oil company YPF SA obtain lower borrowing costs, he said.

Lower Incentive

The oil and gas producer, seized from Repsol SA by Fernandez in April 2012, saw yields on its $1.5 billion of notes due 2025 climb to a record 10.77 percent last month before falling to 9.65 percent Wednesday.

The government’s foreign-exchange controls have also spawned myriad illegal currency as Argentines favor dollars in a country where inflation exceeds 25 percent.

“If Macri does his institutional shock, unifies the exchange-rate market, the yield of YPF bonds comes down from 11 percent to 5 percent,” Sturzenegger said. “Then the incentive as a government to solve the holdouts problem is lower because you have financial means of your own.”

Ivan Pavlovsky, Macri’s spokesman, didn’t return a voicemail seeking comment on what Sturzenegger said about creditor negotiations.

Stephen Spruiell, a spokesman at Elliott Management, declined to comment.

To Jefferies Group LLC’s Siobhan Morden, Scioli would have to do more than just end the debt impasse for Argentina to regain access to overseas credit markets. The country will still find it hard to get financing as long as it’s dependent on commodity revenue and refuses to devalue the peso, she said.

“Debt issuance alone is not a strategy,” Morden, the head of Latin America fixed income strategy at Jefferies, said in an e-mail.

5. KIRCHNER LOCKS IN HER MODEL IN ARGENTINA (CATO Institute)
By Juan Carlos Hidalgo
October 8, 2015

One of the most controversial and radical moves implemented during the populist rule of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina was the nationalization of private pension funds in 2008.

Not only did the government seize $29.3 billion in pension savings but, since the private pension funds owned stock in a multitude of companies, the government also seized that stock and used it to appoint cronies to their boards. This significantly increased the government’s control over the private sector.

Even though none of the opposition candidates has proposed peddling back the nationalization of the pension funds, the Kirchner administration is taking no chances. This week the government enacted a law that makes it extremely difficult for future administrations to sell the stock: from now on it will require a two-thirds majority vote in both chambers of Congress. Since kirchnerismo will likely remain a significant political force in Congress in the foreseeable future, it will enjoy a veto power over any future sale of the stock regardless of who wins the presidential election in late October.

Tellingly, the Argentine government has also drafted legislation that would limit the extraordinary executive powers that the presidency has accumulated since the Kirchner couple came to power in 2003 (Cristina was preceded by her husband Nestor). But don’t count on Cristina discovering her inner Montesquieu. The Kirchner administration has signaled that the bill would be approved only if an opposition candidate wins the election.

Thus, even though Cristina might have only few more months in power, much of her economic model will live on.

TUESDAY, October 13th

1. DEBT SPAT THORNY ISSUE FOR ARGENTINE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES (The Washington Post)

2. CHILDREN OF ARGENTINA’S ‘DISAPPEARED’ RECLAIM PAST, WITH HELP (The New York Times)

3. ANDRES OPPENHEIMER: THE FALL OF BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND VENEZUELA (Miami Herald)

4. RUN-OFF LIKELY IN ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: POLL (Reuters News)

5. ARGENTINA’S YPF TARGETS UNCONVENTIONAL GAS, PETROCHEMICALS FOR GROWTH (Platts)

6. ARGENTINA RISK: ALERT – INTERVENTIONISM MAY THROTTLE INSTITUTIONS (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)

7. ARGENTINA RISK: ALERT – UNREST LIKELY DURING THE OCTOBER GENERAL POLLS (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)

8. ARCADIA GETS ARGENTINE GO-AHEAD FOR A BETTER SOYBEAN (The Davis Enterprise)

1. DEBT SPAT THORNY ISSUE FOR ARGENTINE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES (The Washington Post)
By Peter Prengaman
October 12, 2015

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Like a dark cloud, the bitter fight between Argentina and a group of holdout creditors in the U.S. has hung over South America’s second largest economy for years, preventing the country from accessing international credit markets.

The dispute pits creditors led by U.S. billionaire Paul Singer against Argentine President Cristina Fernandez, who has refused to pay the $1.5 billion owed to hedge funds she refers to as “vultures.” A U.S. district judge’s rulings in favor of the hedge funds have put Argentina in default, scaring off would­be investors and forcing the country to search for money in unorthodox places.

For Fernandez, who along with her late husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner helped lead the country after a devastating financial crash in 2001, the issue has been a deeply personal fight and she has taken a tough approach, including a refusal to even engage in talks over the last year.

But many people think her successor being chosen in the Oct. 25 presidential election will feel compelled to resolve the standoff.

“There are big incentives for the next president to resolve this because the government needs foreign funding,” said.

Gabriel Torres, a senior credit officer for Moody’s Investor Services in New York. “For years, it’s been clear that deep down the current administration didn’t care about this.”

A cash crunch would be the biggest prod for clearing up the conflict, analysts say. Argentina has about $27 billion in foreign reserves, relatively low for such a large economy in which the government offers generous subsidies.

The governing party’s presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires province who leads in the polls, has taken up Fernandez’s hard line, yet he is also promising to find a solution. Economists on his team have made clear that Argentina will have problems raising money until the dispute is settled. His main opponent, outgoing Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, has vowed to negotiate a resolution.

While the candidates remain vague, there are several ways the spat could be resolved. As part of a deal, Argentina could get loans on preferential terms to pay creditors off in lump sums. The country could also simply reissue the debt with new bonds at higher rates.

Still, many Argentines believe the country has been unfairly picked on, which means candidates have to talk tough when it comes to the holdouts, notes Roberto Bacman, director of the South American research firm Center for Public Opinion Studies.

The dispute goes back to Argentina’s $100 billion default on its debts in late 2001. In 2005, and then again in 2010, most of the country’s creditors accepted lower­yield bond swaps. But a group led by Elliot Management refused and sued Argentina in New York federal court. Elliot officials declined to comment on the conflict.

A familiar pattern has subsequently emerged: U.S. District Judge Thomas P. Griesa rules against Argentina, often raising the stakes, such as recently opening the door for Argentine assets in the U.S. to be seized. Economy Minister Axel Kiciloff accuses Griesa of overstepping, and Argentina ignores the rulings.

Largely cut off from international loans, Argentina has turned to countries such as China for backdoor ways to get desperately needed financing. In the last two years, Argentina has signed several agreements with the Asian powerhouse, including multibillion­dollar infrastructure projects and a currency swap.

Fernandez has touted the deals, but the terms have never been made public, and analysts have little doubt China exacts a price far more than the roughly 3 percent interest rate currently available in international loan markets.

“It’s the equivalent of somebody going for a payday loan,” said Brett House, a former IMF economist who is chief economist at Alignvest Investment Management, a Toronto­based investment firm. “Argentina is mortgaging the future” with such deals.

From the outside, the solution seems obvious: negotiate a deal and move beyond the stalemate. But inside Argentina, a country rich in natural resources with a long history of booms and spectacular busts, it’s a political land mine.

Macri learned that the hard way. In June 2014, long before becoming a presidential candidate, he said: “We must go, sit down with Judge Griesa and do what he says.”

Macri was roundly criticized, and now rarely talks about the matter on the campaign trail. When he does, he promises to be a tough negotiator who will not simply pay an “unjustified” sum.

There are other considerations, such as the “me, too” holders of about $5.4 billion in defaulted debt, a second group that has taken Argentina to court. In June, Griesa ruled Argentina also must pay them before paying its majority creditors, a decision that an appeals court threw out in August. Still, they and other holdout creditors will probably have to be included in an eventual deal.

Torres, at Moody’s Investor Services, says that Argentina’s outstanding debt is relatively small for an economy estimated at $600 billion and that the country is capable of paying it. Until it’s paid off, Argentina won’t be able to get loans on good terms and will struggle to attract foreign investors.

“Reaching an agreement with the holdouts has some costs, but not doing so has huge costs,” Torres said.

2. CHILDREN OF ARGENTINA’S ‘DISAPPEARED’ RECLAIM PAST, WITH HELP (The New York Times)
By Clyde Haberman
October 11, 2015

Grandmothers, an old saying goes, are angels in training. If so, one contingent that has had a great deal of practice can be found in Argentina.

The chief pursuit of these women is more temporal than celestial. With focused anger, they have spent more than three decades seeking to unravel and, when possible, correct one of the more shocking human rights outrages of modern times.

This installment of Retro Report, a series of video documentaries chronicling major news stories of the past and their abiding consequences, delves into the theft of babies by the military junta that ruthlessly ruled Argentina from 1976 to 1983. Those were the years of the dirty war, as it was called. Thousands upon thousands of Argentines — at least 10,000 and possibly as many as 30,000, according to some human rights groups — became los desaparecidos, the disappeared. “Desaparecido” was a word that politically attuned people around the world came to recognize instantly, even if they spoke almost no Spanish.

Men and women whom the junta deemed leftist subversives were abducted by death squads, most never to be seen again. They were routinely tortured in secret detention centers and then murdered, their bodies cremated or buried in mass graves or dropped from airplanes into the Atlantic Ocean. The junta described its victims as terrorists, but its definition was, to put it mildly, expansive. “One becomes a terrorist not only by killing with a weapon or setting a bomb, but also by encouraging others through ideas that go against our Western and Christian civilization,” the junta’s leader, Jorge Rafael Videla, said in 1977. He died two years ago in a Buenos Aires prison, where he had been serving a life sentence for crimes against humanity.

The junta’s brutality had a twist: Some of the kidnapped women were pregnant. A few had small children. The pregnant captives were kept alive only long enough to give birth. Then, as described in a 2004 article in the Harvard Women’s Law Journal, the junta embarked on “an unprecedented and systematic plan to steal and sell the babies of its victims.” The mothers were killed. Many fathers were, too. And the babies — about 500 of them, in a widely accepted estimate — were handed or sold to military families and to others considered “politically acceptable.” Birth certificates were falsified. The infants’ true identities were effectively erased. In some instances, they went to the very people who had killed their parents.

As this nightmare unfolded, two Argentine rights groups came into being in 1977: Las Madres de Plaza de Mayo and Las Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo, the mothers and the grandmothers of a central square in Buenos Aires. Every Thursday, they marched in silent protest around the plaza. The mothers sought to learn the fates of their dead children, the grandmothers the whereabouts of their stolen grandchildren, known as los desaparecidos con vida, the living disappeared.

Not everyone was even aware at first that a grandchild existed. One such abuela was Estela Barnes de Carlotto, a school principal. She knew that the eldest of her four children, Laura, had disappeared toward the end of 1977. Only later did she learn that her politically active daughter had been pregnant. Laura was murdered after giving birth to a boy in June 1978. Still later, Ms. de Carlotto found out that the baby’s father was another activist, Walmir Montoya. He, too, was killed, and his remains were not identified until 2009.

Ms. de Carlotto, who turns 85 on Oct. 22, joined Las Abuelas in 1979 and became its president 10 years later. Her story is central to the Retro Report video. Identifying and finding missing grandchildren turned into her life’s mission, with every success representing one more blow against the murderous junta. “Each case,” she has said in interviews, “is a triumph of truth over lies, horrors and deceit.”

Yet as stolen babies were tracked down one by one, 113 of them by May 2014, the search for her own grandchild proved futile. Then, suddenly, in the summer of 2014, there was a turnaround. Genetic testing proved conclusively that a musician, Ignacio Hurban, was Laura’s child. Given Ms. de Carlotto’s national prominence, the discovery was a triumph that resonated emotionally across Argentina.

Mr. Hurban had long wondered if he was truly the biological son of the couple who reared him from infancy, farmers who had received him in 1978 from a powerful landowner with ties to the junta. He did not seem like them at all, either in appearance or in cultural interests. A year ago, on his 36th birthday, he learned that he had in fact been adopted. Wondering if he might be one of the living disappeared, he had a blood test. After the results confirmed his parentage, making him the 114th grandchild to be identified, he changed his name to Ignacio Montoya Carlotto. Since then, three more such identifications have been made, bringing the total to 117.

Forensic genetics, the key to discovering many of the lost grandchildren, has proved an indispensable human rights tool. Advances in DNA analysis make it possible to match a person with his or her biological grandparent; that has been happening in Argentina since 1984. In 1987, the National Bank of Genetic Data was created there, the first of its kind in the world, and it now stores several hundred family profiles. Roughly 10,000 young adults (babies snatched during the dirty war are typically now in their mid- to late 30s) have had themselves tested for possible matches. In that manner, dozens of them have found their biological grandparents.

In part because of the Argentine experience, international accords now recognize certain fundamental human rights. The Convention on the Rights of the Child, approved by the United Nations General Assembly in 1989, asserts that nations must “respect the right of the child to preserve his or her identity,” a requirement that extends to one’s name and family relationships. In 2006, the General Assembly affirmed that a “forced disappearance” that is part of a systematic attack on a civilian population qualifies as a crime against humanity.

The identification of abducted Argentine babies has not been without pain. Some children, on discovering their true identities, have resisted leaving the only parents they know. Also, some adoptive parents have been criminally charged, with the couple who reared Mr. Montoya Carlotto now also facing that risk. His newly found grandmother, focusing on such couples in general, told Retro Report, “Without exception, they have to be brought to justice.”

Then again, some grandchildren are comforted to learn that they were not abandoned by their biological parents, as they long believed. “Initially, most victims experienced psychological shock when their true identity was revealed,” Dr. Victor B. Penchaszadeh, a once-exiled Argentine geneticist who returned home several years ago, wrote this year in The Journal of Community Genetics. But in time, Dr. Penchaszadeh said, “knowledge of the truth, painful as it was, was emotionally liberating from the perversity, lies, concealment and violence that in many cases had surrounded their rearing.”

Ms. de Carlotto vowed to continue the search for those still missing and “for truth and justice.” She will do this, she said, “while I have life in me.” But she is well aware that the clock is ticking. Grandmothers may be angels in training. But unlike celestial messengers, they are not immortal.

3. ANDRES OPPENHEIMER: THE FALL OF BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND VENEZUELA (Miami Herald)
October 10, 2015

The Trans-Pacific trade agreement signed last week between the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries will be another nail in the coffin of the populist governments of Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and other countries that will be left even more isolated from the global economy — and poorer — than before.

Once ratified by the countries that signed it, the agreement — officially known as Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and heralded as the biggest trade deal in history — is expected to cover 40 percent of the world economy. It’s likely to be a major boost to trade and investments among the United States, Japan, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and the remaining Pacific Basin signatory countries.

But what has gone almost unnoticed is that it will further isolate the struggling economies of Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and other countries on Latin America’s Atlantic coast, whose disastrous populist governments have refused to enter free trade deals with the world’s biggest economies.

And what’s even sadder, this is not even a major topic of discussion in Brazil, Argentina or Venezuela, whose leaders live in an ideological bubble, oblivious to the fact that the commodity price boom their countries benefited from in recent years was a stroke of luck that is not likely to be repeated anytime soon.

While their governments pretend that everything is fine, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela are facing an economic tsunami that may worsen their current crises.

At last week’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Lima, Peru, the IMF projected that Venezuela’s economy will contract a whopping 10 percent this year, and that the country will suffer a 200 percent inflation rate this year, the world’s highest. Brazil’s economy will contract by 3 percent, and Argentina’s will remain flat at 0.4 percent this year, and contract by 0.7 percent next year, the IMF said.

These populist governments, which are already weakened by corruption scandals, face bad news everywhere: China’s economy is slowing, world commodity prices have plummeted, nervous investors are fleeing from emerging countries, the U.S. dollar is gaining strength while their currencies get weaker, and the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, which will make it more expensive for developing countries to borrow abroad and pay their debts.

And now comes the Trans-Pacific deal, which will make international companies more likely to open up manufacturing plants in Latin America’s TPP-member countries than in non-member ones. Whereas investing in any TPP member country will alllow multinational corporations to export duty-free to the entire TPP market accounting for 40 percent of the world economy, investing in non-TPP members such as Argentina, Brazil or Venezuela will only allow them to export duty free to their Mercosur economic bloc, which accounts for only 5 percent of the world economy.

In addition, the Trans Pacific deal will allow member countries to export to one another under common regulations. By comparison, non-members will have to adapt their exports to the individual import regulations of each of the 12 TPP member countries.

All of this will lead to a formal partition of Latin America. There will be a Pacific bloc led by TPP member countries that will be linked to the world’s biggest trading bloc, and an Atlantic bloc led by Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela that will be linked to an economically troubled China. The division, which has already existed de facto, will now become official.

My opinion: South America’s populist cycle may soon come to an end in several countries, as a result of new economic realities. Whether they like it or not, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and their ideological allies will have to desperately seek investments to face the perfect economic storm that is heading toward them.

The Trans-Pacific agreement is just the latest reason why they should leave behind their unsustainable demagogic isolationist models, and seek new trade and investment agreements with the biggest world blocs as fast as they can.

4. RUN-OFF LIKELY IN ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: POLL (Reuters News)
By Walter Bianchi
Oct 11, 2015

The Argentinian ruling party’s candidate Daniel Scioli maintains a commanding lead in the presidential race but still lacks enough voter support to win outright in the first round, a poll by the Poliarquia consultancy showed on Sunday.

Scioli, a moderate Peronist from President Cristina Fernandez’s Front for Victory Party, has support from 37.1 percent of those who have decided how they are going to vote, according to the poll published in the daily La Nacion.

His nearest rival Mauricio Macri, the center-right mayor of Buenos Aires city, trails with 26.2 percent, while Sergio Massa, who defected from the ruling party in 2013, has 20.1 percent ahead of the Oct. 25 ballot.

Scioli owes much of his support base to Fernandez loyalists. While he has made new investment a pillar of his campaign platform he has given little away on how far he would unwind state controls in the economy.

That has limited his appeal to voters weary of capital controls, import restrictions, rampant inflation. Some polls show a united opposition would win a second round.

Macri promises swift reforms to open up markets in Latin America’s third biggest economy but many voters worry he would return Argentina to the neo-liberal policies of the 1990s that led to a devastating economic depression.

To win outright in the first round a candidate requires 45 percent of valid votes or 40 percent and a 10-point lead over their nearest rival.

“Scioli is near the 40 percent threshold but there is no certainty he will reach it,” said Eduardo Fidanza, director of Poliarquia.

The pollster said that if undecided votes were taken into account Scioli would poll between 38.5 and 41 percent, Macri between 27.5 and 30 percent and Massa 21 to 23.5 percent.

The poll was carried out from Oct. 2-7 and surveyed 1,838 people across the country.

5. ARGENTINA’S YPF TARGETS UNCONVENTIONAL GAS, PETROCHEMICALS FOR GROWTH (Platts)
By Charles Newbery
12 Oct 2015

Argentina’s state-run energy company YPF plans to ramp up unconventional natural gas production to help close the nation’s supply deficit and expand petrochemical output.

“Fifteen percent of our gas production comes from tight and shale,” CEO Miguel Galuccio said late Thursday at the Argentina Oil & Gas Expo in Buenos Aires. “We have a goal of getting 50% of our gas production from these formations by 2020.”

YPF is producing gas from tight plays like Lajas and Mulichinco, as well as from Vaca Muerta, one of the world’s most promising shale plays that has attracted the attention of majors like Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell.

Argentina has 802 Tcf of shale gas resources, far more than its 12 Tcf of proved conventional reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

There is room to meet domestic demand, given that the country is running a deficit in gas, which meets 50% of national energy demand.

Gas production has dropped by about 20% to 118 million cu m/d over the past decade, led by maturing output from conventional reserves.

This has left slack capacity on pipelines that can be filled without much infrastructure investment.

Galuccio said another incentive is that the government is subsidizing gas prices from new developments to encourage exploration and production. Producers get $7.50/MMBtu at the wellhead for such new output, more than a $4/MMBtu average for conventional production.

As the country pays about $7.50/MMBtu or more for imported gas in its liquefied form, there is an incentive to close the deficit with local production, he said, more so if global gas prices rise in the future.

PETROCHEMICAL PLANS

With more gas supplies, YPF wants to expand its petrochemical production.

“There is an important opportunity to create a regional hub for petrochemical production in Argentina,” led by polyethylene, polypropylene and other polyolefins and derivatives, Galuccio said.

“This will make it possible to replace imports and become a net exporter of petrochemicals,” he said.

In August, YPF announced plans to buy stakes in two polymer producers in Argentina for $122 million by the end of 2015. The assets include an 180,000 mt/year polypropylene plant and another with 130,000 mt/year of capacity.

Galuccio said the petrochemical output will add between $1/MMBtu and $2/MMBtu to the revenue the company makes on its gas production.

With this additional revenue, YPF could widen its exploration and production to riskier locations that it can’t develop now because gas prices are not high enough, he said.

YPF produces 45 million cu m/d of gas, more than a third of national output.

6. ARGENTINA RISK: ALERT – INTERVENTIONISM MAY THROTTLE INSTITUTIONS (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)
9 Oct
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ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 20, 2015

21 octubre, 2015

PBS News Hour Runs NYTimes Video History on Grandmothers of the Plaza

How the children of Argentina’s ‘disappeared’ are being reunited with their birth families
October 19, 2015 at 6:20 PM EDTDuring Argentina’s military dictatorship, as many as 30,000 people simply “disappeared,” including some young, pregnant women, whose babies were then given to couples deemed sympathetic to the regime. What happened to those children, who are now adults? Retro Report, distributed by The New York Times, offers a look at efforts by desperate grandparents to find their family members.

TRANSCRIPT
JUDY WOODRUFF: During the military dictatorship in Argentina, from 1976 to 1983, as many as 30,000 people simply disappeared. Some of those were young pregnant women. An estimated 500 of their babies were then given to couples who were often deemed sympathetic to the regime.

What happened to those women and their babies is explored by the documentary project Retro Report and distributed by The New York Times. We’re partnering with them to bring you a version of this piece here.

MAN: A three-man military junta has taken over the government of Argentina.
NARRATOR: The coup began in the early morning hours of March 24, 1976.
MAN: The action was swift and efficient, and the new ruling junta composed of coup leaders seemed in firm control.
NARRATOR: It wasn’t long before the military dictatorship started rounding up guerrilla groups and those believed to be left-wing subversives.
Housewife and school principal Estela de Carlotto was 47 years old back in November of 1977 when her 22-year-old daughter, Laura, disappeared.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO, Mother of “Disappeared Child” (through interpreter): She was the first of my four children. Laura was a very respectful girl, but with a strong personality. She became politically active because she wanted change.
NARRATOR: Carlotto says she was frantic to find out what had had happened to her daughter.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): At that time I was the same as other mothers, very naive. We didn’t know that the military were coming to kill people. We were expecting the return of our children.
NARRATOR: But it wasn’t to be. Carlotto would never hear from her daughter Laura again.
In August of 1978, she was killed by her captors. Although devastated, Estela de Carlotto was one of the more fortunate ones. She was given her daughter’s body to bury. It was two years later that she learned something she had suspected: Laura had been pregnant and given birth to a son before she was murdered.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): I buried Laura. I knew where Laura was. But I didn’t know where my grandson was.
NARRATOR: Not long after, she joined the grandmothers, or abuelas, of the Plaza de Mayo.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): Being on my own was dangerous. I couldn’t share my sorrow. So, to find the grandmothers was to find company, to exchange ideas and to look after one another.
NARRATOR: The dictatorship lasted seven years. During that time, as many as 30,000 people were tortured and killed at detention camps all over the country. Many of the victims were buried in mass graves.
After the regime fell, the grandmothers were desperate to not only find out what had happened to their children, but to also recover their grandchildren, who had been stolen at birth.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): In the beginning, we were searching, but we didn’t have a way to prove which were our grandchildren.
NARRATOR: So they turned to science. And, in 1987, they began storing their profiles in a newly created national genetic bank. By May of 2014, Estela de Carlotto and the grandmothers had found or identified 113 missing grandchildren.
And, at the age of 83, her determination seemed stronger than ever.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): I will never stop doing what I do, because there is inside a very powerful strength that is love, love for our children and grandchildren.
IGNACIO HURBAN, Adoptee (through interpreter): I first heard of grandmothers and of Estela de Carlotto when I graduated from secondary school and went to study in a music conservatory.
NARRATOR: Ignacio Hurban was born in June of 1978, at the height of the dictatorship. His parents were farmers near the city Olavarria, some 220 miles from Buenos Aires. On his 36th birthday in 2014, Ignacio found out that he had been adopted.
IGNACIO HURBAN (through interpreter): It was a shock, yes. The parents who raised me didn’t tell me. When I asked them, they confirmed what I had been told.
NARRATOR: Not long after his discovery, Ignacio went to the grandmothers, who arranged for a blood test. In August of 2014, just days after taking the test, Ignacio got the results from the head of the commission.
IGNACIO HURBAN (through interpreter): She told me whose grandchild I was and that my grandmother was waiting for me, very excited. We met immediately, the next day.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): Given his good nature and nice character, he said, in jest, of course, “If I’m a grandson of the grandmothers, I hope Estela is my grandmother.” He seemed to have sensed it.
NARRATOR: Yuki Goni is an author and journalist.
YUKI GONI, Journalist: The country came together, I think, in this huge cry of joy. I went to the press conference where she appeared publicly with him for the first time, and there’s a room packed full of journalists all in tears, myself included, because she represented so much for us.
I mean, she had been so brave. She had put so much of herself at stake. And, finally, she had her reward.
NARRATOR: But it also meant something else: Her grandson’s adoptive parents would face a legal investigation.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): The people who raised my grandson committed a crime. It’s a serious crime, a crime against humanity. There are extenuating circumstances, in that they were farm people under a very domineering master, who one day brought them a child and told them, do not ask questions and never tell him he is not your own son.
I personally do not blame them or exonerate them. That is in the hands of the justice system.
NARRATOR: Ignacio Hurban is now Ignacio Montoya Carlotto. Although he has changed his name, he says his bond with the parents who raised him remains strong, and he is proud to be the 114th grandchild identified.
At the age of 84, Estela de Carlotto shows no sign of slowing down, taking her message and now her grandson around the world.
IGNACIO HURBAN (through interpreter): There is my public life with my grandmother and my private and emotional life with her, a life we’re building. In that sense, it’s just a grandchild and a grandmother.
ESTELA DE CARLOTTO (through interpreter): When I met my grandson, I could hug him. He doesn’t look like his mother, but I knew that in his blood was my daughter Laura. And it was like I got her back.
JUDY WOODRUFF: You can watch the full documentary by Retro Report, “The Disappeared,” on The New York Times Web site. That’s nytimes.com.

================================
TUESDAY

1. ARGENTINA’S BLACK MARKET PESO STRIKES RECORD LOW AHEAD OF ELECTION (Reuters News)

2. ARGENTINA BLACK MARKET PESO TUMBLES TO RECORD AHEAD OF ELECTIONS (Bloomberg News)

3. ARGENTINE FRONT-RUNNER ON VERGE OF FIRST ROUND WIN, POLLS SHOW (Bloomberg News)

4. WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS KNOW ABOUT ARGENTINA’S UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? (Forbes)

5. WILL THE ECONOMIC POLICIES OF ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENT SURVIVE SUNDAY’S ELECTIONS? (The Nation)

6. ARGENTINE ELECTION OUTLOOK FAVOURS SCIOLI (Oxford Analytica)

1. ARGENTINA’S BLACK MARKET PESO STRIKES RECORD LOW AHEAD OF ELECTION (Reuters News)
19 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES, Oct 19 (Reuters) – Argentina’s peso weakened to a record low 16.10 per U.S. dollar on the black market on Monday, currency traders said, as investors and speculators bet on a devaluation after a new government takes office in December.

The peso has tumbled more than 21 percent on the black market since early June, weighed down by uncertainty over how the next president would deal with capital controls. Argentines go to the polls on Sunday.

“No one doubts that we will see a devaluation,” said one market trader who declined to be identified because he is not authorized to talk to media. “The question is when.”

The peso traded officially at 9.4950 on Monday, leaving a 70 percent margin between the official rate which is tightly controlled by the central bank and the black market. The wide margin suggests the official rate is over-valued.

Daniel Scioli, the candidate for the ruling Front for Victory party, talks of gradual monetary reforms and says shock measures like devaluation are not the solution to structural imbalances in the economy.

Scioli’s main rival, business-favorite Mauricio Macri, promises to begin lifting capital controls on his first day in office and to allow the peso to float freely. That has been widely interpreted by many Argentines as shock therapy.

Argentina’s next president will inherit a sovereign debt default, precariously low net foreign reserves, double-digit inflation and a widening fiscal deficit.

2. ARGENTINA BLACK MARKET PESO TUMBLES TO RECORD AHEAD OF ELECTIONS (Bloomberg News)
By Carolina Millan
October 19, 2015

* Currency weakens to 16.11 per dollar in street markets

* Argentines seek protection in dollar ahead of elections

Argentina’s peso fell to a record in unofficial street markets as demand for safe-haven assets increased before presidential elections this weekend that are expected to bring changes to the country’s monetary policy.

The currency weakened 1.1 percent to 16.11 per dollar in the black market, where Argentines go to avoid controls that limit their ability to buy pesos at the official rate, according to Ambito.com. That surpassed a previous record low of 16.06 on Sept. 25.

Argentina’s official peso trades in a market that’s tightly controlled by the central bank, which has intervened to limit declines since President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government devalued the currency in January 2014. Demand for dollars has increased over the past few weeks as Argentines wager that the next government is likely to allow the peso to fall further, according to Ezequiel Aguirre, a strategist at Bank of America Corp.

“As the elections get closer and closer, people see the possibility of a currency adjustment approaching and seek refuge by buying black-market dollars,” Aguirre said from New York.
Front-runner Daniel Scioli has said he would make “gradual” changes to monetary policy if elected. Leading opposition candidate Mauricio Macri has pledged to allow the country’s exchange rate to float freely starting from his first day in office.

The peso weakened 0.1 percent Monday in the official market to 9.4951 per dollar. It has declined 11 percent this year, compared with a 19 percent drop for the Colombian peso and a 32 percent tumble for Brazil’s real.

3. ARGENTINE FRONT-RUNNER ON VERGE OF FIRST ROUND WIN, POLLS SHOW (Bloomberg News)
By Charlie Devereux
October 19, 2015

* Ruling party’s Scioli needs at least 40% on Oct. 25 to win

* A second round against runner-up would be held Nov. 22

Argentina’s ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli is within a fraction of winning in the first round of presidential elections to be held Oct. 25, polls show.

An average of four polls viewed by Bloomberg show Scioli close to surpassing the necessary threshold of 40 percent with a 10 percentage point lead needed to avoid the first run-off in Argentina’s history.

Poll of polls

Poll of polls

While Scioli enjoys a comfortable lead, surveys also show the opposition would pose a bigger challenge in an eventual second round on Nov. 22. Some polls show Mauricio Macri, who has an average of 28.8 percent of intended votes for the first round, would close the gap to within the margin of error, while at least two polls show that dissident Peronist Sergio Massa would defeat Scioli.

After results took almost 12 hours to be confirmed in August’s primary elections, the electoral authority has said it will transport ballots from Buenos Aires province, which makes up about 40 percent of the electorate, as they come in to speed up the counting process. Still, if there are calls for a recount, it may take a week before the country knows whether there will be a second round, according to the electoral council.

Argentina’s Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will hand over the presidency on Dec. 10 after two consecutive terms in office.

4. WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS KNOW ABOUT ARGENTINA’S UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? (Forbes)
By Nathaniel Parish Flannery
October 19, 2015

Argentina is one of Latin America’s most confounding economies. It is a country with stately, European style cities such as Buenos Aires and Cordoba and an export base that remains trapped in the nineteenth century. It has been said that in Latin America, Argentina is turning into Venezuela and Venezuela is turning into Zimbabwe. Argentina has many positive attributes but it remains a very challenging market for investors. While Argentina remains an important market for companies such as Ford and GM and has experienced rapid growth in e-commerce, Argentina has missed out on a lot of the positive economic trends under way in other parts of Latin America. Because of the country’s complex political and economic problems, Argentina’s large market of credit-card holding online shoppers hasn’t attracted much attention from Amazon, Home Depot, and Wal-Mart, companies that are investing heavily in Mexico. To get a sense of what trends are worth following as Argentine voters go to the polls on October 25 I reached out to Carl Meacham, the director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bipartisan Washington D.C.-based think tank.

Nathaniel Parish Flannery: What trends are underway in Argentina as the country approaches its October 25 election?

Carl Meacham: Since President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner took office in 2007, Argentina’s policies have shifted far to the left and the ripple effects have not been great. The state has expanded throughout the economy, which is, at this point, largely stagnant. Despite a degree of growth recently, economists largely agree that it isn’t sustainable – and could be reversed by the implementation of tighter fiscal and monetary policies after the elections this fall. Meanwhile, the Kirchner administration has been engulfed by corruption scandals and allegations of impropriety which have eroded confidence in her, though she remains popular with a large segment of the population.

Politically, the run-up to the elections has been primarily dominated by three candidates: Daniel Scioli, a relative moderate from Kirchner’s party, Sergio Massa, a relative centrist, and Mauricio Macri, who most clearly articulates a market friendly agenda. Scioli is the clear frontrunner, with Macri and Massa in second and third place, respectively.

The three candidates differ on many points and although it’s not impossible, it is improbable to see the election resolved in a single round on October 25. The second round, if required, would follow on November 22. But the candidates have a few points in common, too. First, they agree that Argentina’s vast welfare system should remain largely unchanged, given its widespread popularity. Second, the dollar exchange rate must be liberalized eventually. Third, export taxes that target the country’s agricultural sector must be reduced. And fourth, and arguably most importantly, the fiscal deficit and inflation must be curbed.

So where we see a consensus – among the candidates and among Argentines – around this idea that some of Argentina’s fundamentals need a degree of reform. Some of this has been fueled by the scandals, sure, but plenty has grown out of the realization that mismanagement is to blame for many of the country’s economic troubles. But change works slowly in Argentina. Argentines’ desire for change is unlikely to manifest as a large-scale divergence from what we’ve traditionally seen in the country – largely because Argentina’s political system, dominated by the Peronist movement, overwhelmingly favors continuity.
Projected GDP Growth For 2015

Meacham: Economically, Argentina is stagnating. Politically, the country’s establishment is under intense public scrutiny. And internationally, Argentina has been increasingly isolated from global markets and systems.

The U.S.-Argentina bilateral relationship has suffered in part due to the South American country’s unsettled debt dispute with a group of U.S. bondholders, and because of the Kirchner government’s reticence toward the United States. Though the country has paid off most of its outstanding debt, a significant sum remains.

A complete thawing between the two countries is unlikely until Argentina begins a process to reach a settlement with remaining U.S. bondholders. This will ultimately prove an important component to rectifying the bilateral relationship.

All three candidates have demonstrated their awareness that the country’s fiscal situation is unsustainable, and all three are likely to come to some agreement to settle the debt dispute.

But this much is true for sure: whoever wins the election will inherit an economic mess, and it’s unlikely that the new administration will manage any big changes within the first 12 months, particularly since likely winner Scioli has a reputation for being deliberate and cautious – and more likely to follow many of Kirchner’s policies.

Broadly, the revival of Argentina – and of U.S.-Argentina relations – hinges on the new administration’s ability to evolve toward an embrace of economic reform and increased engagement. Despite the challenges, the country’s new president will enjoy plenty of diplomatic means to signal a willingness to strengthen bilateral and global ties and facilitate change. And even a small show of confidence could trigger a wave of support from Washington.

The rise in drug trafficking and associated criminal activity is a particularly salient issue in Argentina at the moment, but weak bilateral ties have largely stood in the way of a higher degree of bilateral cooperation on counternarcotics activities. DEA cooperation with its parallel law enforcement agencies in Argentina – particularly for security training – has the potential to serve both countries interests, while rebuilding trust in a less visible (and therefore lower stakes) environment.

Washington could also signal its renewed willingness to work with the incoming Argentine administration from day one: by sending a high-level delegation to the new president’s inauguration. In its ideal form, Vice President Biden and Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker would travel to Argentina to welcome in the new president – and to begin rebuilding the political and commercial ties that have languished for the past 12 years, under Fernández de Kirchner and her predecessor and late husband, Néstor Kirchner.

Inflation In Latin America’s Biggest Economies

Meacham: For investors, there are two elements to this election that matter: Will the winning candidate implement the reforms Argentina needs? And if yes, when and at what pace?

So what reforms does Argentina need? The country’s regulatory environment is in need of serious restructuring. As it currently stands, doing business in Argentina is largely based on private relationships forged between businesses and the elites – fueling perceptions of risk and a lack of transparency. This, in turn, generates a high degree of ambiguity around the movement of money and the allocation of investment funds. Meanwhile, those investors that do funnel money into the country face enormous barriers to repatriating profits and accessing dollars to pay for imported intermediate goods, such as auto parts – another in a long list of factors that discourage investment, such as judicial insecurity.

The elections are also likely to lead to a devaluation of the Argentine peso. Devaluation is nearly inevitable as is its blowback on the economy and its investors. It’s a step Argentina needs, but may be a hard pill to swallow especially for brave investors already in Argentina who have accumulated large peso holdings due to capital controls.

All of this has made many foreign investors hesitant to enter the market, despite the potential returns to be had. Still, many investors are eager to do business in Argentina and lend to its government, provided it take measures in the direction of reform. The fact remains that Argentina desperately needs access to lending and foreign direct investment – hopefully it will prove motivation enough for the new administration to make speedy progress.

5. WILL THE ECONOMIC POLICIES OF ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENT SURVIVE SUNDAY’S ELECTIONS? (The Nation)
By Greg Grandin
Oct 19, 2015

Cristina Fernández is despised by the neoliberal elite, but her government has improved the lives of many, many people.

Over the last few years, as Argentina has struggled with a sagging economy and its share of political crisis, opinion and policy makers in the English-speaking world have tended to treat its president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, as a hot mess, the Paula Abdul of Latin American politics. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton inquired about her mental health (as revealed in a WikiLeaked cable), and The Economist called her presidency a “psychodrama.” The Economist has devoted so much ink to pathologizing Fernández that it has created a new genre: stalking as political commentary. Anonymously written articles (as per the magazine’s house style) describe the Argentine president as a control freak whose “need to control extends to her image” (unlike, say, every other major politician in the Western Hemisphere), cattily noting that “she never appears in public without looking glammed up.” Peronism, of which Fernández is the standard bearer, is less about “ideas,” the magazine says, than a “set of political emotions.”

Just last year, Fernández, who survived brain surgery in 2013, was being written off as an unpopular lame duck. “Her approval-rating languishes at 30%”! Her economic populism is ruinous! She picked a fight with London over the Falklands to divert attention away from her failures! She had a historic naval ship seized by creditors in Ghana! She killed Alberto Nisman! “The Fairy Tale” is ending for “Argentina’s new Evita”! She “lashes out” against critics! She appointed a Marxist Keynesian, or a Keynesian Marxist, as minister of the economy! She’s “out of touch with reality”! She’s “destroying the Argentinian economy”!

Argentina’s economy has been tightening since 2010, largely the result of lowered commodity prices. And Fernández’s clumsy handling of the death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman last January sparked widespread protests. But her popularity over the last year has gradually increased, today reaching “unheard of levels for a president in her final term.” More importantly, her handpicked successor, Daniel Scioli–governor of the province of Buenos Aires–is predicted to win the presidency, either in this Sunday’s first-round vote or in a run-off. (To win on Sunday, Scioli will have to garner either 45 percent of the vote or 40 percent with a 10 point margin; if not, a second round takes place on November 22.)

Those emotional Argentines! If only they could index their feelings to the slumping price of soy, rather than their operatic nostalgia for Evita, they would understand that the rational choice this weekend would be Mauricio Macri, a conservative businessman and current mayor of Buenos Aires who, according to the Argentine economist Roberto Lampa, embodies “the most obtuse neoliberal orthodoxy of the 90s.” China is in crisis, damn it, and Argentines are voting like it is 2002.

The tribunes of the world’s financial markets have had their eyes on this Sunday’s election for a long time, hoping that voters would not just reject Kirchnerism but end the Latin American left’s nearly two-decade-long run of electoral success. They have done all they could to plump for Macri, just as they did all they could to plump for Bachelet’s opponent in Chile, Dilma’s opponent in Brazil, Vásquez’s opponent in Uruguay, Morales’s opponent in Bolivia, Correa’s opponent in Ecuador, yea unto when the nightmare started, with Hugo Chávez’s 1998 win in Venezuela.

There is no doubt that the Latin American left is in crisis, for many different reasons, some self-inflicted, others more structural. But it still wins at the polls because, compared with the disastrous Washington-backed economic policies of the 1990s, this generation’s governing left has managed to improve the material, everyday existence of many, many people.

Argentines have long called the 1990s the “lost decade” (“la década perdida”), when neoliberals put the whole country out for bid, driving the nation into an economic whirlwind that was biblical in its proportions. More recently, Argentines are calling the 12 years of Kirchnerism–eight presided over by Fernández and four by her predecessor and late husband, Néstor Kirchner–the “la década ganada” (the “won decade”), a period that witnessed the institutionalization of enormously popular social policies. Just as anti-Chavistas in Venezuela have to campaign promising to be better Chavistas than the Chavistas (that is, they promise to expand and better administer the social-welfare programs Chávez’s government put into place), in Argentina, according to Jennifer Adair, a historian of Argentina, “every single candidate has had to contend with the ongoing popularity of Cristina and the policies of this past decade. The most dramatic example of this has been in the campaign of Macri, who recently gave a speech that one-by-one listed off the achievements of the Kirchner years, vowing that his national government would continue them.”

These policies include an impressive array of new redistributionist programs, including a “universal payment per child” (“asignación universal por hijo,” best thought of as a basic, minimum income tied to size of family household); protection for domestic workers; pushing back against the IMF and the hedge funds; re-nationalization, including of energy production and of Aerolíneas Argentinas; legalization of up to 2 million migrants, in what might be the world’s most humane border policy; prosecution of military officers involved in human-rights abuses during the dictatorship; legalizing same-sex marriage; lowering of the voting age from 18 to 16; Fútbol Para Todos (Soccer for All, the free, live TV broadcast of soccer matches). There’s low unemployment and steady public investment in public works and infrastructure, though inflation remains a problem.

Many of these achievements were indeed made possible by the commodities boom, as The Economist never ceases to point out. But, as the historian Ernesto Semán says, when commodity prices declined and the peso began to lose its value, the government neither turned to the right (as Juan Perón himself did in 1949) nor enacted knee-jerk austerity. Instead, it struggled to figure out ways to maintain, and even expand, its accomplishments. Fernández stumbled, particularly in her early handling of the Nisman crisis. Enemies, especially in the corporate and supranational press, went on the offensive. Fernández’s “rhetoric became repetitive” and, to some, tiresome.

But after eight years in office–and 12 years of Kirchnerismo–her popularity, and that of her policies, is undeniable. Contrary to what was last year a nearly universally held consensus, she hasn’t capitulated to the vulture funds who have been circling the country since her husband’s death in 2010. Argentina returned to democratic rule in the early 1980s, and every single one of her presidential predecessors save her husband, Néstor, left office either early or in disgrace. In contrast, Fernández is not only leaving beloved, her preferred candidate is set to succeed her.

But that fact might be what undoes her legacy. Many supporters of Fernández do not trust Scioli. Semán describes him as a “terrible governor of Buenos Aires province with bad ratings for most of his administration.” Scioli is running on Fernández’s and Kirchner’s accomplishments, but Google his name, along with the word “pragmatic,” and you’ll be taken to scores of articles in places like The Economist, Barron’s, Foreign Policy, and so on predicting that he will be his “own man.” In this case, pragmatism means only one thing: He’ll break with Kirchnerism, align with Washington, and make peace with global markets. This would include, among other things, deregulation, giving in to the hedge funds, and liberalizing the currency, with a further devalued peso making austerity inevitable. Semán also points out that Scioli is significantly more socially conservative than Fernández, on issues such as gay rights, crime, and abortion.

In Argentina, as in Venezuela and Brazil, Latin America’s new left has outlasted its first generation of leaders. We’ll see if it can survive their successors.

======================
POLITICAL PARODY at its best..

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live

we deserve d a few laughs from this POLITICAL CIRCUS..

Responder, Responder a todos o Reenviar | Más

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 19, 2015

20 octubre, 2015

Why the State Department Finally Confirmed Augusto Pinochet’s Role in International Terrorism
by Peter Kornbluh
Oct. 13, 2015
3 min read
original

In the fall of 1987, Secretary of State George Shultz faced a formidable challenge: to convince President Ronald Reagan that the time had come to jettison his favorite anti-Communist dictator, Gen. Augusto Pinochet, and openly align Washington with the forces of democracy in Chile. In September, Shultz sat down with CIA director William Webster, who briefed him on Pinochet’s direct role in the September 21, 1976, car-bombing in Washington, DC, that took the lives of the leading critic of Chile’s military regime, former Chilean diplomat Orlando Letelier, and his young colleague at the Institute for Policy Studies, Ronni Karpen Moffitt. The CIA had “convincing evidence,” Shultz learned, that “Pinochet personally ordered his intelligence chief to carry out the murders.”

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In a secret report titled “Pinochet and the Letelier-Moffitt Murders: Implications for US Policy,” Shultz made his case to the president. “The CIA has never before drawn and presented its conclusion that such strong evidence exists of [Pinochet’s] leadership role in this act of terrorism,” the Secretary of State informed Reagan. “It is not clear whether we can or would want to consider indicting Pinochet,” Shultz advised. “Nevertheless, this is a blatant example of a chief of state’s direct involvement in an act of state terrorism, one that is particularly disturbing both because it occurred in our capital and since his government is generally considered to be friendly.”

“The only clear case of state-supported terrorism that has occurred in Washington” —George Shultz to Reagan, 1987
Washington could not continue to support a mastermind of what was, before 9/11, “the only clear case of state-supported terrorism that has occurred in Washington, D.C.,” Shultz concluded his argument to President Reagan. “What we now know about Pinochet’s role in these assassinations is of the greatest seriousness and adds further impetus to the need to work toward complete democratization of Chile.”

This dramatic document was among 282 declassified records on the Letelier-Moffitt case that Secretary of State John Kerry turned over—on a ceremonial pen-drive—to Chilean president Michelle Bachelet during a visit to Santiago last week. “It was a surprising gesture,” Letelier’s son, the popular Senator Juan Pablo Letelier, noted in a radio interview in Chile. “I think this practice of declassifying documents is very positive.”

Indeed, Secretary Kerry and the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff deserve significant credit for practicing “declassified diplomacy”—using US documents as diplomatic currency to advance the cause of human rights and redress the dark, interventionist history of US-Chilean relations. The Clinton administration started this unique practice after Pinochet’s arrest in London in 1998, undertaking a special Chile Declassification Project on CIA covert operations in Chile and Pinochet’s repressive 17-year dictatorship. “Such information could assist in encouraging a consensus within Chile on reinvigorating its truth and reconciliation process,” stated an NSC tasker ordering the review and declassification of 23,000 never-seen-before CIA, NSC, Defense, and State Department records that were turned over to Chile’s National Library in the fall of 2000.

The just-released documents on the Letelier-Moffitt case—many carry declassification stamps of October 1, 2015, just days before Kerry’s trip to Santiago—were intended to be released along with those 23,000 records. But after the families of Letelier and Moffitt, along with the Institute for Policy Studies where they worked and my organization, the National Security Archive, pressed the Clinton White House to indict Pinochet as a terrorist, the administration decided to withhold these records as potential evidence in a future prosecution.

Before leaving office, Clinton’s attorney general, Janet Reno, received a recommendation from her Justice Department investigators to indict Pinochet for this act of political terrorism. She left the draft indictment for her successor in the incoming George W. Bush administration, John Ashcroft, to implement. But President Bush never lifted a finger to prosecute Pinochet—even as fighting international terrorism became the central theme of his presidential tenure.
Had the CIA evaluation of the dictator’s role in international terrorism been leaked or declassified, the pressure to bring him to justice—here or in Chile—would have been overwhelming. Instead, Pinochet died in 2006 without ever being prosecuted for the murders of Letelier and Moffitt. Their families, and the public, were left with the worst-case scenario: neither truth nor justice.

Earlier this year (with the support of the National Security Archive) the Chilean government of Michelle Bachelet—herself a victim of Pinochet’s human rights abuses—petitioned the Obama administration to finally release these key records. The State Department was receptive, and mobilized the declassification bureaucracy to locate the missing Letelier papers. Kerry’s trip to Santiago for an international conference on oceanic law provided a target date, and a golden opportunity, to declassify the documents and personally carry them to Chile. Headlines such as “Pinochet Directly Ordered Killing on US Soil of Chilean Diplomat, Papers Reveal” are now circulating around the world.

To be sure, there are key documents in the Letelier-Moffitt case that remain classified. The CIA has yet to declassify its “convincing evidence” on Pinochet’s culpability. Nor has the FBI released its investigative report to Attorney General Reno recommending that Pinochet be prosecuted. But with this model effort of “declassified diplomacy,” the Obama administration has opened a Pandora’s box of evidence—once again proving the power of declassified US documents to provide historical vindication, if not legal accountability.

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MONDAY

1. POPE FRANCIS’ SHUNNING OF ARGENTINA DOESN’T SURPRISE RESIDENTS (The Washington Times)

2. ARGENTINA: HANDOVER FEARS (Financial Times)

3. ARGENTINA’S MACRI COURTS PERONISTS TO SAVE PRESIDENTIAL BID (Reuters News)

4. FACTBOX: ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES (Reuters News)

5. ARGENTINA PUBLISHES OFFICIAL INFLATION RATE BELOW PRIVATE-SECTOR ESTIMATES IN SEPTEMBER (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)

6. WATCHDOG SURPRISES BY REJECTING TELECOM ARGENTINA SALE (Business News Americas)

7. U.S. BIOFUEL MAKERS ASK D.C. CIRCUIT TO BLOCK IMPORTS OF BIODIESEL FOR RFS (Inside EPA Weekly Report)

8. MAR DEL PLATA FILM FEST UNVEILS FULL LINEUP (Hollywood Reporter)

1. POPE FRANCIS’ SHUNNING OF ARGENTINA DOESN’T SURPRISE RESIDENTS (The Washington Times)
By Andre F. Radzischewski
19 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES — He’s been to South Korea, Albania and Israel, spent time in Sri Lanka, Cuba and Bosnia. Just this month, the Vatican confirmed a trip to Mexico is planned for 2016, making it six Latin American countries Pope Francis will have visited — along with the United States — since his pontificate began in March 2013.

But there’s one nation notably missing from his itinerary to date: his native Argentina. It’s an omission that rankles but doesn’t surprise residents here, despite the popularity the pope enjoys and the national pride his surprise selection inspired.

While the Vatican insists the pontiff’s busy schedule dictates his travel schedule, the local Catholic faithful and analysts alike suspect it is Argentina’s complex political situation that is the main reason why the former Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio is steering clear of Buenos Aires, the city in which he was born and one he rarely left before being chosen pope.

And though he has smoothed ties with Argentina’s president, many recall the troubled relationship Cardinal Bergoglio had with Cristina Fernandez and her late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner.

“I think he will come here when this government leaves,” said Martha Vera, a 64-year-old accountant who on a recent Sunday was studying a display detailing the future pope’s rise at Buenos Aires’ Metropolitan Cathedral. “He did not like the things [the Kirchners] said.”

As archbishop, Cardinal Bergoglio often clashed over social issues with his neighbors in the presidential Casa Rosada, which sits just feet away from the cathedral across the capital’s Plaza de Mayo. Tensions escalated, for instance, when Ms. Fernandez legalized same-sex marriage in 2010.

The Argentine president did meet with Francis in Rome in 2013 one day before he was formally inaugurated, the first head of state to meet with the new pope, and Ms. Fernandez also attended the Mass celebrated by Francis during his recent trip to Cuba.

But the president’s imminent departure — the term-limited Ms. Fernandez will leave office Dec. 10 — still does not smooth the way for a papal homecoming because Francis is worried about the bigger picture, said Mariano de Vedia, a commentator with the La Nacion daily and author of two books about the pope.

This year, the highly charged political atmosphere ahead of the Oct. 25 presidential election ruled out a papal visit from the get-go, Mr. de Vedia said. But with Argentina marking the bicentennial of its independence next July, a 2016 trip was long seen as almost certain.

Given that all main candidates vying to succeed Ms. Fernandez have sought to play up their ties to the first Argentinean pope, though, Francis apparently wants to see the electoral dust settle before he ventures onto Argentine soil. “He does not want his figure to be used,” Mr. de Vedia said. “He does not want to be taken advantage of” by whoever wins the election.

Francis also hopes that local leaders will first tackle key concerns of corruption, poverty and a rise in drug trafficking, said Gustavo Vera, a local opposition legislator and close personal friend of the pontiff’s. “Right now Argentina is pretty polarized; there is a lot of division,” Mr. Vera said. “When he comes to Argentina, it will be an inflection point, and he knows that.”

Coming home

Francis’ predecessors displayed none of the same qualms about returning home.

John Paul II made an epochal nine-day return to his native Poland in June 1979, eight months after his election as pope, generating wild enthusiasm and, many say, planting the seeds for the political revolt that would eventually end communist rule.

Now-retired German Pope Benedict XVI marked World Youth Day in Cologne in August 2005, four months after his elevation, and returned a year later for a lengthy, emotional tour of his native Bavaria.

The apparent cancellation of a papal bicentennial visit has caused disappointment in San Miguel de Tucuman, the northern Argentine city where delegates severed ties with Spain in 1816, and which next year will mark the anniversary with a major eucharistic congress.

Still, the Vatican maintains that logistics and protocol — not politics — made the journey impossible. Any trip to Argentina would necessarily include a visit to its neighboring countries in the Southern Cone, said Monsignor Guillermo Karcher, a Vatican protocol official and close Francis confidant.

“It does not just come down to the pope and Argentines’ wishes,” Monsignor Karcher said. “It also depends on the invitations from the Uruguayan and Chilean sides.”

And in the case of Chile, some damage control may in fact be needed, Mr. de Vedia said, as Francis, during his July visit to Bolivia, seemed to side with La Paz in the festering, century-old border dispute between the South American neighbors.

Monsignor Karchner recently told the Buenos Aires Herald an Argentina visit may be possible in 2017, but much of 2016 will be taken up with the duties of a Holy Year in Rome that Francis has declared.

Benedikt Steinschulte, an official at the Pontifical Council for Social Communication, also noted that Benedict XVI did wait six years before making an official state visit to Germany, even as he made more informal stops.

Francis, for his part, has not used opportunities for such “unofficial” trips to come home, even though his July visit to the Paraguayan capital of Asuncion put him a few miles from his home country’s border. But while Argentines may take it as such, his itinerary should not be mistaken for a political statement, Monsignor Karcher insisted.

“Germany and Poland are around the corner” from Rome, he said about Benedict and the German’s predecessor, John Paul II. But the city’s current bishop, Monsignor Karcher said, “can’t just get up, pack his bag and say, ‘Now, I’m going to Argentina.'”

2. ARGENTINA: HANDOVER FEARS (Financial Times)
By Benedict Mander
October 18, 2015

As Cristina Fernández steps down she leaves a slowing economy that will limit her successor’s options

Battered by gale force winds in the treacherous seas around Cape Horn, a crew of pro-government Argentine militants were last month forced to abandon a yacht they had sailed from the far north of the country. They were trying to spark national maritime pride but after a failed rescue attempt, the abandoned La Sanmartiniana — named after South American independence hero José de San Martín — drifted towards the Falklands. Only then, close to the islands Argentina calls Las Malvinas and which it unsuccessfully invaded in a 1982 war with the UK, was it brought to safety.

The irony escaped nobody in Buenos Aires. Critics of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner saw the near-shipwreck as a metaphor for her government.

Over the past decade, Argentina has enjoyed a commodity price boom that has fuelled annual average economic growth of around 4 per cent. Ms Fernández has been quick to trumpet that success as her own. But as she prepares to exit office — after next Sunday’s presidential election — she will be leaving behind a country in dire economic straits saddled by a yawning fiscal deficit, double-digit inflation and critically low foreign exchange reserves.

“Argentina has run out of road,” says Patrick Esteruelas, senior sovereign analyst at EMSO Partners, an emerging markets asset manager. “It’s not a question of whether there will be an [economic] adjustment or not. The real question is whether the next government moves quickly, or whether the market ends up doing the adjustment for them.”

End of the Fernández reign

Constitutionally barred from running for a third term, many believe Ms Fernández’s departure offers a turning point for Latin America’s third-largest economy. For one it will end 12 years of leftist rule that Ms Fernández shared with her predecessor and deceased husband, Néstor Kirchner, who took power in 2003 as Argentina was reeling from an earlier economic crisis sparked by its $100bn default — at the time the biggest sovereign debt default in history.

Back then, other populist or centre-left leaders — such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — were also being swept to power across South America. In a stroke of fortune, their rise coincided with a period of booming commodity prices.

Now, however, that boom has ended with tumultuous consequences for some of those most exposed. In Brazil and Venezuela, the successors of both Mr Chávez and Mr Lula da Silva are grappling with unprecedented economic and political crises.

Argentina is not in a comparably parlous state. But there is a broad consensus among the presidential candidates that whoever wins the race will need to move swiftly to untangle a thickening knot of economic problems and prevent a similar crisis in Argentina.

What distinguishes the candidates is the speed with which they promise to fix these problems. For now the race is too close to call, thanks to a voting system that requires the winner of the first round to scoop 45 per cent of the vote, or 40 per cent plus a 10 point lead over the next candidate. Failing that, there will be a run-off, on November 22.

Leading the polls, with around 37 per cent, is Daniel Scioli, 58, the so-called “continuity candidate” backed by Ms Fernández. The governor of Buenos Aires province, and a former vice-president under Kirchner, Mr Scioli has promised only “gradual” change.

His main rival is Mauricio Macri, the centre-right mayor of Buenos Aires, who has committed to restoring the credibility of institutions such as the judiciary, central bank and media — which have come under pressure from the Fernández administration — and to open the door to foreign investment.

Key to the final result, though, may be Sergio Massa, a former cabinet secretary under Ms Fernández who has split from the government. Although he is running a distant third, with 20 per cent, how his support base divides in a second round run-off vote between Mr Scioli and Mr Macri could decide the eventual winner.

“The election remains wide open, with a run-off . . . highly likely,” says Laurence Allan of IHS, the risk consultancy. “Scioli and Macri have vowed to improve the business environment, but Argentina’s serious macroeconomic imbalances will pose major challenges.”

These challenges are daunting though it is not mission impossible. They include tackling a fiscal deficit equivalent to 7 per cent of gross domestic product — currently financed by printing money; inflation that private forecasters estimate at about 20 per cent; an overvalued currency with a soaring black market rate; a fast-disappearing trade surplus; capital controls; and shrinking foreign reserves.

For financial markets, however, the bigger question is whether the new government can settle a long-running $1.3bn dispute with holdout hedge fund creditors, led by US billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management, which has effectively locked Argentina out of capital markets for a decade.

The court case has resulted in Argentina having exceptionally low levels of debt — a plus as most other emerging economies have leveraged themselves up to the gunwales. But it has also made it a financial pariah. Many expect, or at least hope, a settlement could prompt a surge of capital inflows.

“We have been out of the markets for so long that there’s a lot of pent up demand for Argentine assets,” argues Federico Sturzenegger, economic adviser to Mr Macri, who has said he will seek a rapid solution to the holdout saga.

Mr Sturzenegger says one priority is to attract $20bn a year in upstream oil and gas investment to develop Argentina’s largely untapped shale reserves.

Late to the investment party

Others are less confident about the scale of financial interest. Even if there is a settlement, investors are no longer as interested in emerging markets as they were when commodity prices were high and ultra-low western interest rates prompted a search for extra yield. Securing investment in shale has been made all the more difficult by the dramatic fall in oil prices.

“We are arriving late at the party,” cautions Mario Blejer, a former International Monetary Fund economist and now adviser to Mr Scioli, who says he favours reopening talks with holdout creditors but has also been non-committal about how he would approach them — in deference to Ms Fernández, who has refused to negotiate a deal.

To Ms Fernández’s many critics, the end of this unyielding stance will be one of the most welcome changes when she leaves office. Yet despite leading a government that opponents often describe as proud, capricious, heterodox, vengeful and even corrupt, Ms Fernández’s approval rating is close to 50 per cent, which could restrict her successor’s room for manoeuvre.

Supporters say such relatively high ratings are thanks to government policies, which have put Argentina back on the path of prosperity after the crushing debt crisis of 2001.

“Above all, we have recovered the ability to control our own destiny, which we lacked when the country was excessively indebted and subjected to the IMF and financial markets,” says Aldo Ferrer, a prominent economist.

To explain her continuing popularity, backers also point to strong economic growth which peaked at 9.5 per cent in 2010, but fell to 0.5 per cent in 2014, with little improvement expected this year, and generous social programmes. Subsidised energy schemes, for instance, can make the cost of a household’s monthly energy bill equivalent to the price of a cup of coffee. The subsidies, they say, lifted millions out of poverty and reduced inequality, even if they fail to mention how high inflation has since eroded those gains. The Catholic University of Argentina calculates that the number of Argentines living in poverty — defined as someone earning less than $220 per month — rose to 29 per cent in 2014, from a low of 25 per cent in 2011.

Economists working for all of the main presidential candidates warn that the country can no longer afford the current level of subsidies. But her successor could also find themselves restricted by what Agustín D’Attellis, another economist close to the government, identifies as a lasting shift to the left in the prevailing economic doctrine. Indeed, even the market-friendly Mr Macri openly approves of the once-controversial 2012 nationalisation of the oil company, YPF.

But perhaps Ms Fernández’s biggest legacy will be herself. Although she is not running in the elections as a deputy, senator or governor — many speculated she would seek a seat to maintain political immunity in case of possible future corruption charges — few imagine her disappearing from public life altogether.

“The great unknown is whether Cristina is going to play a big role and remain a powerful figure,” says Juan Cruz Díaz of Cefeidas, a political consultancy.

He points out that this is particularly important for Mr Scioli, who has had to court Ms Fernández’s support by accepting one of her closest advisers as a running mate while distancing himself from her in order to attract swing voters. That has made for a delicate balancing act, “but I wouldn’t underestimate Scioli’s [independence],” Mr Díaz adds.

A long fall

A century ago Argentina was one of the most prosperous countries in the world, today it has the dubious distinction of being the only country to have lost its rich nation status.

“Our [recent] history is divided into two halves: Argentina was the country with the fastest rise between 1880 and 1930, and then the country with the most notorious fall,” says Dante Caputo, a foreign minister during the 1980s, who doubts that the next government will significantly alter the current downward trajectory.

On the asset side of the national ledger are some of the world’s largest reserves of shale oil and gas. Argentina also has abundantly fertile plains that have made it the world’s third-biggest exporter of soya — a sector that powered recovery after the 2001 crash. But prices have halved to around $320 per tonne since 2012 although some home the crop can avoid the worst of the end of the commodity super-cycle.

“The world is eating more and it is eating better, and that is a trend that will not be reversed,” says Gustavo Grobocopatel, a prominent Argentine farmer sometimes called “the king of soya”. “That is a great opportunity for Argentina, which is well positioned to benefit.”

But on the liability side of the national balance sheet lies a political class that has seemingly proven itself incapable of delivering long-term stability. High hopes greet each new administration. Yet no government has been able to successfully smooth out the country’s boom-and-bust cycles.

One disgruntled voter, Sonia Benedetti, a 69-year-old housewife, is pessimistic. “Sadly, I don’t think the next president will change this country. We don’t just need a new president, we need a whole new political class. Out with the lot of them!”

Profiles: ‘A wide open race’

The incumbent’s choice
Born into a middle-class family, Daniel Scioli negotiated his kidnapped brother’s ransom and release from leftwing guerrillas when he was just 18. But it was his sporting career that brought him fame. After losing his right arm in a powerboat racing accident in 1989, he went on to win several world championships over the next decade, alongside a business career selling electrical appliances for Electrolux. After being elected to congress in 1997, Néstor Kirchner chose him as his vice-president in 2003. Since 2007 he has been governor of Buenos Aires province, whose 17m population makes it larger than most European countries, as well as the president of the ruling Peronist party from 2010 to 2014.

The challenger
Mauricio Macri, the son of a powerful Italian business magnate, spent a decade running one of Argentina’s most popular football clubs, Boca Juniors, during one of its most successful eras. But he says it was a 12-day kidnapping ordeal at the hands of corrupt police officers in 1991 that convinced him to go into politics. He founded a centre-right political party, and later became a congressman before being elected in 2007 as mayor of Buenos Aires. After launching his presidential bid in 2013, he has seen his support rise dramatically over the past year as he campaigned for reform.

The outsider
Sergio Massa is a dissident Peronist hoping to capitalise on widespread discontent with the government. After being elected in 2007 as mayor of Tigre, a middle-class suburban district north of Buenos Aires, he was briefly Cristina Fernández’s cabinet chief in 2008-09, before splitting from the government. His candidacy has struggled to gain traction despite an impressive victory for his party in 2013 midterms that effectively barred the president from re-election by leaving her without the congressional majority needed to alter the constitution.

3. ARGENTINA’S MACRI COURTS PERONISTS TO SAVE PRESIDENTIAL BID (Reuters News)
By Maximiliano Rizzi and Sarah Marsh
16 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES, Oct 16 (Reuters) – When Mauricio Macri, the conservative opposition challenger in Argentina’s presidential race, unveiled a statue of the late working class hero Juan Peron it signaled a late shift in campaign strategy: a push to attract moderate Peronist voters.

For months, Macri distanced himself from Peronism, the fragmented political movement which has dominated Argentine politics for 70 years, promising to liberalize the economy and stamp out a deep-seated culture of graft and nepotism.

But just days away from the election, the “Let’s Change” alliance leader is under pressure. His support has fallen and he cannot be sure of forcing front-runner Daniel Scioli of the Peronist ruling party into a run-off vote.

Third-placed Sergio Massa has also staged a comeback, weakening Macri’s bid to present himself as the only alternative to the government-backed Scioli in the Oct. 25 vote.

In need of more votes, the 56-year-old Macri has been forced to go head-to-head with Massa, a Peronist who defected from the ruling party two years ago.

“I am not a Peronist but I have social justice in my heart,” Macri said as he unveiled the statue of Peron last week. “I want to invite all Peronists to work with us to create the Argentina we all dream about.”

Peron served three terms as Argentina’s president and earned himself hero status for his fiery nationalism and defense of worker rights in the 1940s.

Since then, Peronism has become an ideological grab bag spanning the communist left to the neoliberal right and it retains a strong hold over Argentines. Peronist parties have won nine of the eleven presidential elections they have contested.

Fulvio Pompeo, a Macri campaign coordinator, said Macri’s priority in this campaign had been to consolidate his support base within his “Let’s Change” alliance following party primaries in August and that “now we have to set about working with as wide a focus as possible”.

Despite his slide in the polls, Macri is still in the hunt for the presidency. He has a good chance of taking second place and, if he can force a second round, Scioli could be vulnerable to a united opposition.

To avoid a runoff, Scioli needs 45 percent of votes, or 40 percent and a 10 point margin over his nearest rival in the first round. A Poliarquia poll this week projected he has between 38.5 to 41 percent support, with Macri on 27.5 to 30 percent and Massa 21 to 23.5 percent.

It is not clear if Massa, who once served as Fernandez’s cabinet chief before splitting with her, would back Macri in a second round and whether that would be enough for him to beat Scioli.

‘OPPORTUNISM’

Some Peronist voters fed up with President Cristina Fernandez’s leftist populism and the ailing economy are listening to Macri.

“Macri understands he can’t win unless he has us thinking Peronists on his side,” said retired head-teacher Mariela Farias, a long-time Peronist militant who will now vote Macri.

Even so, Macri’s late shift in the campaign has lacked concrete policy proposals and also diluted his credentials as the candidate for change, said political analyst Graciela Romer.

“It seems more like electoral opportunism,” she said.

Macri kicked off his campaign promising to free-up Latin America’s third largest economy from capital controls and trade restrictions from his first day in office, to draw in foreign dollars and end double-digit inflation.

In contrast, Scioli plans to maintain Fernandez’s hefty social spending and making only gradual reforms to address the economy’s structural imbalances.

Macri’s support levels fell after a prominent party ally was embroiled in a graft scandal, undermining his promise to end endemic corruption.

He has also had limited success in connecting with the poor . His open-market reforms are a tough sell outside the urban middle class in a country where Peronist leaders have long protected national industry and worker rights.

Macri has rowed back on his criticism of nationalizations under Fernandez, but his opponents play up voter fears that he will put investors’ interests ahead of people’s needs and they mock his recent efforts to woo moderate Peronists.

“‘Let’s Change’ chose its name well, because it spends all its time changing according to what suits most at that moment,” quipped Marcelo Corti, a Massa ally running for Congress.

4. FACTBOX: ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES (Reuters News)
16 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentines vote on Oct. 25 for a new president to replace Cristina Fernandez whose two terms have been characterized by generous welfare benefits, state intervention in the economy and a debt default.

The three leading candidates all pledge to lure investment and boost the competitiveness of domestic industries. They differ, however, on the pace and depth of reforms to unwind state controls in Latin America’s No.3 economy.

Daniel Scioli, the ruling Front for Victory’s candidate, is ahead in the presidential race but is not sure of an outright win in the first round and could be vulnerable if it goes to a runoff.

Mauricio Macri, the center-right leader of the opposition PRO party, is running second. In third is Sergio Massa, who defected from the ruling party in 2013 to form the Renewal Front, still under the broad umbrella of the Peronist movement.

Below is a description of these three candidates and summary of their policy proposals:

DANIEL SCIOLI

* Scioli, a 58-year-old former businessman and ex powerboat champion who lost an arm in a crash in 1989, is the two-time governor of Argentina’s most populous province Buenos Aires.

He is a moderate Peronist who praises Fernandez’ leftist populism model but advocates “gradual change” and pro-business solutions to stimulate the sluggish economy.

* Scioli says that settling a legal battle with U.S. hedge funds suing over unpaid debt is not a priority. He says he will negotiate “with tenacity” for a just outcome. Fernandez refused to offer the funds better terms than those handed to creditors who accepted steep writedowns after the 2002 default.

Scioli’s advisors acknowledge a deal is needed to ensure access to international financing and say Scioli would “negotiate in good faith” with holdouts.

* He defends the central bank’s management of the exchange rate and has ruled out a sharp devaluation. He favors gradual reforms toward open markets over shock therapy and rejects spending cuts.

* Scioli has pledged to bring $30 billion in investment per year to Argentina and bring inflation down to single digits within his four-year term.

* He would review quotas and export taxes on grains and soy that have outraged farmers, but has not committed to cuts.

MAURICIO MACRI

* Macri, 56, is mayor of Buenos Aires and leader of the non-Peronist PRO opposition party. He heads the broader “Let’s Change” alliance. Before entering politics, he climbed through the ranks of his father’s holding company and was president of Boca Juniors, one of Argentina’s most popular clubs.

He has campaigned on a platform for change and is favored by financial markets for promising to open up the economy. His opponents slam him as a neoliberal who would neglect the poor.

* Macri criticized the government’s failure to settle with the U.S. “holdout” creditors. A deal would be a priority, his advisors say, although he would haggle hard.

* He promises to begin removing capital controls on day 1 in office, with a view to allowing the peso currency to float freely and lifting restrictions on access to dollars. He would call for central bank president, Alejandro Vanoli, to resign.

* He pledges to bring inflation down to single digits within two years – faster than the other candidates.

* Macri promises to abolish quotas and taxes on wheat and corn exports, and to reduce the 35 percent export tax soybeans.

* He vows to root out corruption from public institutions but his campaign has been dented by graft allegations against a close ally political.

SERGIO MASSA

* Massa is a 43-year-old lawyer and career politician, who pitches himself as a middle way between Scioli’s gradual change and Macri’s shock therapy.

Massa served briefly as Fernandez’s cabinet chief before his defection dealt her a severe blow in the 2013 mid-term elections and scuppered her hopes to rewrite the constitution and stand for a third term.

* Massa has made fighting crime a pillar of his campaign, pledging to deploy the military to fight drug traffickers, create an Anti Drugs Agency and reform the penitentiary.

* Massa says he would return Argentina to global debt markets before negotiating with all holdouts, not just those suing the country, to avoid “extortion”.

* He promises to end currency controls within 100 days in office and haul inflation down to 4-5 percent by the end of a first term.

* He would gradually eliminate export curbs and reduce duties levied on the shipment of grains and soybeans.

* Massa says improving the credibility of government statistics and ensuring the autonomy of the central bank and judiciary are key for restoring investor confidence.

5. ARGENTINA PUBLISHES OFFICIAL INFLATION RATE BELOW PRIVATE-SECTOR ESTIMATES IN SEPTEMBER (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)
By Paula Diosquez-Rice
16 October 2015

Inflation rate expectations are on the rise, but we do not expect that to be reflected in the official data in the short term. Click through for more analysis and data.

According to Argentina’s National Statistical Office (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos: INDEC), consumer inflation remained at 1.2% month on month (m/m) and 14.4% year on year (y/y) in September.

The category of other goods and services posted the quickest increase, up by 2.5% m/m, followed by the health and medical services sector, up by 1.6% m/m, and the equipment and household maintenance category, up by 1.5% m/m.

Inflation figures presented by the opposition in Congress point to a rise of 1.92% m/m and 25.9% y/y, contrasting with INDEC’s figures. With regards to inflation expectations for the next 12 months, Torcuato di Tella University reports a rise of 8 percentage points, placing it at 30%, according to the median, while average expected inflation in annual terms rose to 30.7%.

The price control scheme for selected products is expected to continue until early January 2016 thus reducing even more the chances of official data moving closer to private-sector estimates.

Argentina’s economic distortions are a result of the government’s interventionist approach to economic policy. Import barriers, currency exchange controls, wage ceilings, and red tape for companies were aimed at reducing capital flight, but have severely compromised the country’s economic flexibility and, therefore, a readjustment of the productive sector.

An adjustment of the official exchange rate is almost unavoidable for the next government and will prove more difficult than dismantling some of economic distortions currently in place and will be immediately reflected in observed prices even if not in the official inflation data.

6. WATCHDOG SURPRISES BY REJECTING TELECOM ARGENTINA SALE (Business News Americas)
16 October 2015

Argentina’s telecoms regulator Aftic has rejected the acquisition of Sofora Telecomunicaciones’ 68% stake in Telecom Argentina by investment firm Fintech Telecom after a two-year wait for a decision that has raised some suspicions about the political interests that lie behind it.

Aftic said that New York-based Fintech lacked sufficient experience in managing telecoms companies, which is a prerequisite under decrees 62/90 and 764/2000 and that it could not guarantee that Telecom Argentina would function as normal.

In a statement Aftic pointed out that Fintech Telecom LLC was incorporated in Delaware less than a month before Telecom Italia accepted the purchase offer.

“The board considers that [Fintech] is not in a position to operate and take control of Telecom Argentina’s services and infrastructure. Fintech has demonstrated neither experience nor expertise [in the area].”

In November, 2013, Telecom Italia agreed to sell its 68% controlling stake in Sofora Telecomunicaciones for US$960mn. Sofora in turn has a 51% stake in Nortel Inversora, the investment company that holds 55% of Telecom Argentina.

In October last year, Telecom Italia said it had amended the agreement and would only sell a 17% minority interest in Sofora, while awaiting regulatory approval in Argentina for the sale of the whole stake. The new agreement included an option to acquire the other 51% once the sale was approved.

Enrique Carrier, director of consultancy Carrier y Asociados, said in a research note that while it may be true that Fintech does not have experience in the telecoms sector, Telecom Argentina as a company clearly has.

“Telecom Argentina has been operating for 25 years, which would give its management the sufficient knowledge to operate the company,” Carrier said.

The analyst added that the two years that the government had taken to reach a decision was “excessive.”

As is common in Argentina’s telecoms sector, the decision may be politically driven. Last month, Aftic rejected Argentine multimedia giant Clarín’s proposed purchase of a 49% stake in mobile operator Nextel, arguing that such an acquisition requires prior approval from authorities.

However, market observers suspect that the decision was politically motivated due to Clarín’s ongoing seven-year feud with President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, whose term is due to end when a new government takes office on December 10.

However, the resolution may come as a surprise considering that Mexican businessman David Martínez, head of Fintech, was seen as having a good relationship with President Fernández and supported her in the country’s battle against holdout creditors.

Carrier added that many have speculated that the reason for the long delay in rejecting the sale was due to the fear that Fintech’s purchase was “nothing more than a Trojan Horse” for Grupo Clarín to move into Argentina’s second largest operator via the back door.

The analyst also questioned why the decision was made public just a week before presidential elections are held on October 25 and two months before a new government takes office.

He suggested that Aftic’s decision will be contested in the courts to keep the issue alive and that, given the traditional blurred lines between politics and business in Argentina, some Aftic members might change their minds at a later stage. Aftic’s board will remain unchanged with the change in government.

Aftic’s decision was unanimous, but newspaper The Buenos Aires Herald quoted an Aftic board member as saying that he could change his vote if the investment fund files new evidence that would prove Fintech’s ability to manage a telecoms operator.

7. U.S. BIOFUEL MAKERS ASK D.C. CIRCUIT TO BLOCK IMPORTS OF BIODIESEL FOR RFS (Inside EPA Weekly Report)
By Stuart Parker
16 October 2015

U.S. biodiesel producers are asking a federal appeals court to scrap EPA’s approval of imports of biodiesel from Argentina used as a qualifying renewable biomass fuel under the agency’s renewable fuel standard (RFS), claiming EPA failed to undertake necessary public comment on what they call a flawed tracking system for the biodiesel.

EPA Jan. 27 issued an approval of a tracking system designed to show that biodiesel from Argentina meets the criteria to be considered “renewable biomass” under the renewable fuel standard (RFS). The approval, in the form of a letter to the Argentine Chamber of Biofuels (CARBIO), constitutes a judicial reviewable “final agency action,” says an Oct. 8 opening brief filed in appellate court by the National Biodiesel Board (NBB). The brief is available on InsideEPA.com. See page 2 for details. (Doc. ID: 185601)

NBB, representing U.S. biofuel producers, says the decision approves a flawed system that allows access to the U.S. market for biodiesel produced from Argentinian soybeans, and CARBIO’s tracking system cannot ensure that the imported fuel is truly renewable.

NBB says the decision should have been open to public notice and comment, and is also asking the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to vacate a separate agency action — a letter from the agency refusing their request to seeking public input on the plan.

Further, NBB says EPA’s approval of what the board sees as an inadequate tracking system alters the underlying RFS regulations governing biodiesel, and reopens them to judicial review. The board therefore also asks for remand of those regulations to EPA to address the shortcomings that allow the imports at issue.

“EPA failed to provide any notice of the CARBIO proposal it purports provides sufficient quality assurance to ensure that soybean oil from Argentina, a country that has seen a rapid expansion of agricultural lands, came from lands that were in production prior to December 19, 2007. Public comments were necessary for the first plan of its kind,” says the brief.

NBB, representing U.S. biofuel producers, says that the CARBIO tracking system relies on the identification of “go areas,” which are shown by satellite imagery to have been agricultural in 2007 and not newly cultivated areas that have been recently cleared of forest. However, it is unclear how CARBIO will define such areas, and EPA lacks the means to check that they are correctly identified, the brief says.

“EPA’s review of the CARBIO proposal was arbitrary and capricious in that it did not comply with its own regulations. There was no explanation or analysis to support the identification of ‘go areas’ as ‘existing agricultural lands,’ to ensure feedstock producers, handlers or importers are in compliance, or to even understand the scope of the program,” the filing says. “Indeed, EPA appears to have handed its authority over to third parties, one of which has clear conflicts of interest,” the group says referring to CARBIO. “Thus, EPA could not have ensured that the CARBIO proposal provides the adequate level of quality assurance in clear contravention of its regulations.”

8. MAR DEL PLATA FILM FEST UNVEILS FULL LINEUP (Hollywood Reporter)
By Agustin Mango
15 October 2015

The only A class festival in Latin America, Mar del Plata announced its main competition line up and special programs Wednesday night in a press conference held in Buenos Aires, led by festival president and veteran filmmaker Jose Martinez Suárez, artistic director Fernando Martin Peña, and Lucrecia Cardoso, head of the country’s Film Institute (INCAA).

Main entries in the festival’s international and LatAm competitions include Mexico, Colombia and Chile’s Oscar bids (Gabriel Ripstein’s 600 miles, Ciro Guerra’s Embrace of the Serpent and Pablo Larrain’s The Club, respectively), Federico Veiroj’s San Sebastian winner The Apostate, Venezuela’s Golden Lion winner at Venice From Afar, and Pablo Agüero’s Eva Doesn’t Sleep, a dream-like take on the fate of Eva Peron’s cadaver after it was kidnapped and hidden in the 1950s, starring Gael Garcia Bernal.

Mar del Plata’s guest list includes Hong Kong’s action kingpin Johnnie To, who will be presenting its musical Office, France’s Arnaud Desplechin (The Golden Days), and US cult director Trent Harris (Beaver Trilogy, recently featured in the Sundance doc Beaver Trilogy Part IV), as well as international distributors, producers and sales agents attending the festival’s new co-production meeting LoboLab.

With film historian Fernando Martin Peña returning to the driver seat for the festival’s 30th anniversary, Mar del Plata’s 380 films program draws heavily from the past, with a world premiere of the definitive restoration of David W. Griffith’s landmark Birth of a Nation, and a new 35mm print of Native Son, the adaptation of Richard Wright’s classic 1940 novel, which was shot in Argentina under director Pierre Chenal, featuring the author himself in the role of Bigger Thomas. At the time of its release in the US, the film was partially censored, causing the near absolute disappearance of its complete version, which only survived in a single and fragile 16mm print.

Hollywood censorship in the 1940s will also be the focus of the Pre-Hays Hollywood section, which will screen films from directors such as Michael Curtiz, Raoul Walsh and George Cukor, made during a short period (1929 to 1934) during which US film production was freed from the studios’ self-imposed censorship following the so-called Production Code established by 1930s US Postmaster General Will H. Hays.

The Mar del Plata International Film Festival runs Oct. 30 – Nov. 9.

The competitions line up is listed below.

International Competition

Eva Doesn’t Sleep (Argentina / France / Spain) – Pablo Agüero
Incident Life (Argentina / Uruguay / France) – Ariel Rotter
Popular Mechanics (Argentina) – Alejandro Agresti
Remember (Canada) – Atom Egoyan
The Club (Chile) – Pablo Larraín
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia / Venezuela / Argentina) – Ciro Guerra
Koza (Slovakia / Czech Republic) – Ivan Ostrochovský
The Apostate (Spain / France / Uruguay) – Federico Veiroj
O futebol (Spain) – Sergio Oksman
The Island of Wind (Spain) – Manuel Menchón Romero
Tangerine (USA) – Sean Baker
The Measure of a Man (France) – Stéphane Brizé

Latin American competition

Samuray-S (Argentina) – Raúl Perrone
Campo Grande (Brazil / France) – Sandra Kogut
Beyond My Grandfather Allende (Chile / Mexico) – Marcia Tambutti Allende
The Monument Hunter (Chile) – Jerónimo Rodríguez
600 miles (Mexico) – Gabriel Ripstein
What We Never Said (Mexico / Argentina) – Sebastián Sánchez Amunátegui
Evilness (Mexico) – Joshua Gil
Santa Teresa & Other Stories (Mexico / Dominican Republic / USA) – Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias
I Promise You Anarchy (Mexico / Germany) – Julio Hernández Cordón
Suspended Time (Mexico) – Natalia Bruschtein
From Afar (Venezuela / Mexico) – Lorenzo Vigas

Argentine competition

The Spider’s Lullaby (Argentina) – José Celestino Campusano
Road to La Paz (Argentina / Netherlands / Germany / Qatar) – Francisco Varone
How Most Things Work (Argentina) – Fernando Salem
Docile Bodies (Argentina) – Matías Scarvaci and Diego Gachassin
Easy Ball (Argentina) – Juan Fernández Gebauer and Nicolás Suárez
Hortensia (Argentina) – Diego Lublinsky and Alvaro Urtizberea
Kryptonite (Argentina) – Nicanor Loreti
El Movimiento (Argentina / South Korea) – Benjamin Naishtat
Paula (Argentina / Spain) – Eugenio Canevari
Pequeño diccionario ilustrado de la electricidad (Argentina) – Carolina Rimini and Gustavo Galuppo
The Football Boys (Argentina) – Jorge Leandro Colás
Our Last Tango (Argentina / Germany) – Germán Kral

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ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 15, 2015

20 octubre, 2015

1. BELLO: THE PERSISTENCE OF PERONISM (The Economist)

2. ARGENTINA REJECTS FINTECH’S BID TO BUY TELECOM ITALIA UNIT (Bloomberg News)

3. ARGENTINA’S SCIOLI CHOOSES `GOOD GREEK’ AS ECONOMY MINISTER (Bloomberg News)

4. ARGENTINA REGULATOR BLOCKS SALE OF TELECOM ITALIA UNIT (Reuters News)

5. ARGENTINA’S CARMAKERS MUST CONQUER NEW MARKETS: FIAT UNIT’S CHIEF (Reuters News)

6. ARGENTINA CANDIDATE SCIOLI TOUTS BATAKIS AS ECONOMY MINISTER (Reuters News)

7. ARGENTINA SAYS SEPT INFLATION 1.2 PCT, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS (Reuters News)

8. ARGENTINA’S TELECOM REGULATOR DENIES TELECOM ITALIA’S DEAL TO SELL SOFORA (Nasdaq)

9. FINTECH TO APPEAL REGULATOR’S REJECTION OF TELECOM ARGENTINA DEAL, SAYS TELECOM ITALIA (Dow Jones Institutional News)

10. ARGENTINA REJECTS FINTECH’S ATTEMPT TO BUY TELECOM ARGENTINA (Dow Jones Institutional News)

11. CHINA’S SINOPEC SAYS LABOR CONFLICT HITS ARGENTINA OUTPUT (Platts Commodity News)

1. BELLO: THE PERSISTENCE OF PERONISM (The Economist)
17 October 2015

Argentina’s dominant political brand is defined by power, not ideology

IF YOU can’t beat them, join them. That seems to be the thinking of Mauricio Macri. On October 8th he unveiled a statue of Juan Perón, the army colonel who gave his name to what remains, more than four decades after his death, Argentina’s dominant political movement. What made this ceremony remarkable was that, of the three main presidential candidates in the election on October 25th, Mr Macri is the only one who is not a Peronist.

Argentina finds it hard to live without Peronism. Of the presidential elections since 1946 in which Peronists were permitted to run, they won nine, losing only two. They have governed for the past 12 years, under Cristina Fernández de Kirchner since 2007 and before that under Néstor Kirchner, her late husband. Ms Fernández’s candidate, Daniel Scioli, leads the opinion polls; Mr Macri trails by about ten percentage points.

Peronism is a brand rather than a party. Its official vehicle is called the Justicialist Party (PJ). To the extent that it has an ideology it is a vague blend of nationalism and labourism, expressed in the PJ’s founding “three banners” of political sovereignty, economic independence and social justice.

This has not prevented Peronist presidents swerving between radically opposed policies. Perón himself, when in power from 1946 to 1955, gained the lasting gratitude of Argentine workers by granting wage rises and paid holidays. But he also helped industrialists. He forged a coalition of labour unions, conservative provincial political bosses and nationalist army officers. It was the closest to fascism–of the corporatist, Mediterranean variety rather than the German version–that Latin America ever saw. Re-elected in 1973 after exile in Franco’s Spain, Perón tolerated violence as a political tactic, which contributed to a renewed breakdown of democracy and a bloodier military dictatorship in 1976.

In the 1990s Carlos Menem, another Peronist, pursued a very different course, opening the economy, privatising state companies and aligning Argentina with the United States. The Kirchners returned to economic nationalism and near-autarky, and extended welfare benefits to those thrown out of work by Argentina’s economic collapse in 2001.

Rather than ideas, Peronism embodies a consistent set of political emotions and practices. Perón declared in 1951: “The masses don’t think, the masses feel and they have more or less intuitive and organised reactions. Who produces those reactions? Their leader.” His second wife, Eva Duarte, touched the hearts of the masses. Ms Fernández has proved to be an accomplished disciple: she has ruthlessly pursued popularity by postponing inevitable economic belt-tightening, by exploiting her widowhood and by associating herself with Pope Francis, an Argentine who has Peronist roots.

Sergio Berensztein, a political scientist, says that today Peronism is “a conception of politics–the idea of power as an end in itself”. That makes it like Mexico’s PRI or Brazil’s PMDB, the permanent holder of the balance of power in Brasília. Its exercise of power is characterised by the strong leader and by control of the Argentine street. Almost all Peronist presidents have concentrated power in their own hands, brooking no internal rivals. Mr Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province, has often had to bite his tongue to keep the backing of Ms Fernández. But nobody will be surprised if he breaks with her and many of her policies if he reaches the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace.

This exclusionary leadership, together with the ideological shifts, has contributed to Argentina’s notorious political and economic instability. It has also meant that Peronism itself has become increasingly fragmented. This is the fourth consecutive election that has seen two or three Peronist candidates. If that has not mattered, it is partly because the Peronists’ historical rivals, the Radicals, have all but disappeared, but mainly because the Kirchners had the good fortune to exercise power when high world prices for Argentina’s farm exports led to rapid economic growth, rising wages and a boom in middle-class consumption.

But now the economy has stalled. Whoever wins will have to devalue and cut subsidies. Mr Scioli seems tantalisingly close to the 40% and ten-point lead he needs to avoid a run-off. He is the favourite. But he is finding it hard to woo the middle class, which has fallen out of love with Ms Fernández. Mr Macri may have a chance, if he can only poach votes from the third candidate, Sergio Massa, a dissident Peronist. The Casa Rosada, it seems, is worth a statue to the founder of the most protean of political movements.

2. ARGENTINA REJECTS FINTECH’S BID TO BUY TELECOM ITALIA UNIT (Bloomberg News)
By Pablo Rosendo Gonzalez and Daniele Lepido
October 16, 2015

*Regulators rejected deal in unanimous decision by board
*Telecom Italia says it has `wide time margin, guarantees’

Argentine regulators rejected a bid by Mexican financier David Martinez to buy a controlling stake in Telecom Argentina SA from Telecom Italia SpA, arguing that his Fintech Group isn’t qualified to run a telecommunications business in the South American nation.

The Aftic regulator unanimously rejected the proposal for Fintech to buy a 68 percent holding in Sofora Telecomunicaciones, the company Telecom Italia uses to control Telecom Argentina. Fintech, an investment fund, couldn’t guarantee the normal functioning of a telecommunications company, according to the regulator.

“Fintech Telecom LLC was incorporated in Delaware less than a month before Telecom Italia accepted the bid,” Aftic said in its statement on Thursday. “It lacks expertise and qualifications to run the company.”

Telecom Italia struck the deal in November 2013 on the Argentine sale. After failing to win regulatory approval, Telecom Italia agreed in October 2014 to give Martinez 30 months to complete the purchase, at the same time transferring a 17 percent holding in Sofora to Fintech. The original deal was valued at about $960 million.

Martinez and a local representative of Fintech in Argentina didn’t reply to calls and e-mails seeking comment. In a statement, Telecom Italia said it has “wide time margin and guarantees” in the deal. If the sale of a controlling stake in Sofora to Fintech cannot be completed by April 29, 2017, Telecom Italia can seek another buyer, it said.

Telecom Argentina is one of the divestments sought by Telecom Italia Chief Executive Officer Marco Patuano in his strategic plan to cut debt and to restore the carrier’s investment grade. More recently, Telecom Italia is working with Deutsche Bank AG to sell its 1.6 billion-euro ($1.8 billion) stake in wireless-tower unit Inwit SpA, people familiar with the matter said last week. Telecom Italia had almost 27 billion euros in net debt at the end of June. French media company Vivendi SA this year became its largest shareholder.

Telecom Italia shares traded 0.5 percent higher at 1.06 euros as of 9:04 a.m. in Milan.

Martinez, 58, helped restructure corporate debt after Argentina’s 2001 economic crisis and currently owns a minority stake in Argentine cable television operator Cablevision SA as well as interests in the energy industry. He has also filed briefs in support of the Argentine government’s position in a battle with holdout creditors.

3. ARGENTINA’S SCIOLI CHOOSES `GOOD GREEK’ AS ECONOMY MINISTER (Bloomberg News)
By Charlie Devereux
October 15, 2015

*Batakis chosen after heading economy in Buenos Aires province
*Batakis returned province to fiscal surplus in 2013 and 2014

Daniel Scioli, the ruling party candidate and front runner ahead of presidential elections on Oct. 25, said today he would name Silvina Batakis as his economy minister if he wins.

Batakis has served as economy minister for Buenos Aires province under Scioli’s governorship since 2011, managing to post a surplus in 2013 and 2014 after several years of deficits by carrying out a tax reform. Scioli frequently lauds her achievements, calling her the “Good Greek,” in reference to her cultural roots.

“Silvina has done a formidable job because the province of Buenos Aires seemed impossible, unviable,” Scioli said in an interview alongside Batakis on local TV station Channel 13.

Batakis, 46, studied economics at La Plata university and has a master in environmental economics from the University of York in the U.K.

Scioli, of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s political alliance, leads opposition candidates Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa in polls ahead of the Oct. 25 vote. Scioli had 38.4 percent of intended votes against 28.8 percent for Macri and 20.5 percent for Massa, according to a poll of 1,200 people carried out by OPSM Sept. 25-Oct. 8.

4. ARGENTINA REGULATOR BLOCKS SALE OF TELECOM ITALIA UNIT (Reuters News)
By Nicolas Misculin and Valentina Za
October 16, 2015

Oct 16 (Reuters) – Argentina’s telecoms regulator has blocked the sale of Telecom Italia’s local business to investment firm Fintech, halting a $960 million deal that could help the Italian phone group cut its large debt.

Regulator AFTIC said late on Thursday that Fintech was “not in a position to operate and take control” of Telecom Argentina .

“Fintech has demonstrated neither experience nor expertise,” AFTIC said.

Telecom Italia said on Friday that Fintech had indicated it planned to appeal against the decision.

Shares in Telecom Italia shrugged off the news and were up 0.6 percent by 0724 GMT in line with Italy’s blue-chip stock index.

“In our view this represents a slight setback in Telecom Italia’s efforts to sell assets and raise cash in order to reduce debt,” Haitong Research said in a note.

The former Italian telecoms monopoly had 27 billion euros ($30.7 billion) in net debt at mid-year.

Telecom Italia agreed in November 2013 to sell its controlling stake in Telecom Argentina’s holding company Sofora to Fintech, the investment vehicle of Mexican financier David Martinez, for $960 million.

A 17 percent stake in Sofora was transferred to Fintech in October last year for $216 million, while the remaining 51 percent was to be sold after a green light from the regulator.

Under the terms of the accord, Telecom Italia and Fintech have until the end of April 2017 to close the sale.

If they fail to do so, Telecom has a six-month option to buy back the 17 percent already sold and attempt to sell the remaining 51 percent to a third party. Fintech had guaranteed Telecom must pocket at least $630.6 million for the deal.

If a sale to a different investor is not completed by the end of October 2019, Fintech will have to pay Telecom Italia $175 million. Telecom will still have six months to buy back the minority stake.

“Clearly the best option would be the transaction with Fintech as initially agreed,” Haitong said.

“That seems now a tougher scenario to materialize and although we expect Telecom Italia to give Fintech more time to try to convince local authorities over its capacity to acquire the asset, one could not exclude the possibility of TI trying to find other potential bidders for the asset.”

Telecom Italia’s board meets on Friday to discuss possible investments to develop a fibre-optic network.

5. ARGENTINA’S CARMAKERS MUST CONQUER NEW MARKETS: FIAT UNIT’S CHIEF (Reuters News)
By Jorge Otaola
October 15, 2015

Argentina’s automobile industry must improve its competitiveness in the wake of Brazil’s currency devaluation and look for new markets in Europe and the Pacific, the president of Fiat Argentina Cristiano Rattazzi said on Thursday.

Argentina and Brazil have made policy agreements over bilateral car trade in the last few years but the devaluation of the real has nevertheless hurt demand for Argentine products in Brazil and made Brazilian exports cheaper in other markets.

“We are in a situation similar to the end of the 1990s when Brazil devalued violently and we ended up totally lacking competitiveness with respect not only to Brazil but also to other countries,” Rattazzi told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference hosted by IDEA, Argentina’s Business Development Institute.

“Clearly we need to re-examine our competitiveness, because we likely cannot live with it as it is. We need to return to the world, and strike a deal with the Pacific area or Europe or both,” he said.

Argentine car production dropped 8.3 percent in September compared with the same month a year ago due to a 27.3 percent plunge in exports, the ADEFA automobile association said.

Brazilian demand for Argentine cars is down more than 30 percent in 2015 compared with the previous year, ADEFA said.

Rattazzi said Argentina’s car industry was also struggling with high inflation. Economists estimate that consumer prices are rising about 25 percent annually.

“Inflation is a drug in the system and we have to battle it hard to end it,” he said.

Meanwhile, a drop in production means car factories are likely to continue to suspend workers, Rattazzi said.

“The suspensions at carmakers will depend on the relationship with Brazil but there will certainly be some (new) suspensions,” he said.

Argentina holds a presidential election on Oct. 25, after eight years of interventionist policies by incumbent Cristina Fernandez that have sparked rampant inflation.

6. ARGENTINA CANDIDATE SCIOLI TOUTS BATAKIS AS ECONOMY MINISTER (Reuters News)
By Richard Lough
October 15, 2015

Argentina’s ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli said on Thursday he would appoint his trusted economy minister in the province of Buenos Aires to take the same role on a national level if he wins the Oct. 25 presidential election.

The next government will inherit a sovereign debt default, an acute dollar shortage, double-digit inflation and a gaping fiscal deficit. Analysts said Scioli’s comments would be viewed positively by financial markets.

Silvina Batakis, largely unknown outside of Argentina, took the helm of Buenos Aires province economy ministry in December 2011 and last year turned its chronic fiscal deficit into surplus, partly via tax reform.

“Silvina has done wonderful job,” Scioli said in an interview on local TV station Channel 13.

At stake in this month’s vote is the pace and depth of reforms to liberalize Latin America’s No. 3 economy and smooth its return to global credit markets after President Cristina Fernandez’s government defaulted last year.

Scioli, a moderate from the broad Peronist movement, talks of “gradual change”, promising pro-business policies to spur growth. But he rejects dismantling social welfare policies and worker rights measures that are popular with Fernandez’s core supporters.

Macri says investment and foreign financing will not flow into Argentina until currency and trade controls are dismantled, and promises swift reforms.

“We know there are things to correct,” Batakis said on a local television show on Wednesday night, adding it was clear Argentina needed to undertake structural reforms.

Echoing Scioli, she stressed that shock measures like devaluing the peso were not the solution. She said she would allow the central bank to continue managing the exchange rate rather than letting it float.

“We want competitiveness, and for this we need to resolve the structural problems, thinking in the medium and long term.”

Argentina’s fiscal deficit will widen sharply to 4.2 percent of gross domestic product this year from 2.5 percent in 2014 as spending outpaces revenue during the election year, according to a forecast by Jefferies.

“The fact she conducted a fiscal adjustment in the province so that it now has a surplus should be a positive from a market perspective,” said Ignacio Labaqui at consultancy Medley Global Advisors.

7. ARGENTINA SAYS SEPT INFLATION 1.2 PCT, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS (Reuters News)
By Hugh Bronstein
October 15, 2015

Oct 15 (Reuters) – Argentine consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in September, official data showed on Thursday, a figure in line with market expectations for the report.

In the 12 months through September, Argentine inflation was 14.4 percent, the government said in a statement. So far in 2015, consumer prices are up 10.7 percent, it said.

Private economists say official inflation data is routinely underestimated. They see actual inflation running at over 25 percent annually.

8. ARGENTINA’S TELECOM REGULATOR DENIES TELECOM ITALIA’S DEAL TO SELL SOFORA (Nasdaq)
October 15, 2015

(RTTNews.com) – Telecom Italia’s ([TIAOF.PK, TI) deal to sell its Sofora Telecomunicaciones business under Telecom Argentina to Fintech Telecom LLC was blocked on Friday by Argentia’s telecom regulator saying that Fintech lacks experience and expertise.

The deal was originally signed in November 2013 for $960 million, with an expected closing in April 2017. Fintech, an investment vehicle financed by David Martinez, a Mexican businessman, was planning to acquire 68 percent of Sofora.

The regulatory board noted that Fintech was incorporated in the Delaware on October 18, 2013, less than a month before Telecom Italia accepted the offer. In its decision, the Board said if the deal is approved the control of licenses of Telecom Argentina will be in the hands of investment companies.

9. FINTECH TO APPEAL REGULATOR’S REJECTION OF TELECOM ARGENTINA DEAL, SAYS TELECOM ITALIA (Dow Jones Institutional News)
By Manuela Mesco
16 October 2015

MILAN–Investment firm Fintech Advisory will appeal the decision by Argentina’s telecommunications regulator to reject its plan to buy Telecom Argentina from Telecom Italia, the Italian operator said Friday.

The sale, worth $960 million, was first announced in 2013.

Fintech wasn’t immediately available for comment.

Telecom Italia said under the terms of its agreement with Fintech it could look for another buyer if the sale wasn’t finalized by April 2017. In such a case, according to the terms, Telecom Italia would be guaranteed to receive at least $630.6 million in proceeds from any future sale to another buyer.

If Telecom Italia is unable to find another buyer, it would get $175 million from Fintech and the agreement would be terminated, the Italian operator added. It would also have the chance to buy back a 17% stake in the holding company that controls Telecom Argentina, Sofora Telecomunicaciones SA, which it sold to Fintech earlier as part of the deal.

In November 2013, Fintech agreed to pay $859.5 million for Telecom Italia’s 68% stake in Sofora. Under the agreement, Fintech said it also would pay $100.5 million for Telecom Italia to provide technical support to Telecom Argentina and other services for up to three years, among other conditions.

The sale was part of Telecom Italia’s effort to raise about EUR4 billion ($4.57 billion) by 2016 to bring down its EUR27 billion of debt.

Argentina’s regulator said on Thursday it had rejected the deal. It said that Fintech lacked experience in the telecommunications industry and that approving the deal would have left Telecom Argentina “in the hands of a company comprised merely of investors.”

10. ARGENTINA REJECTS FINTECH’S ATTEMPT TO BUY TELECOM ARGENTINA (Dow Jones Institutional News)
By Taos Turner
15 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES–Argentina’s government on Thursday rejected plans by the investment group Fintech Advisory to buy Telecom Argentina from Telecom Italia for $960 million.

The decision comes nearly two years after the offer was made by Fintech, which is run by Mexican investor and distressed-asset specialist David Martinez.

Argentina’s federal communications agency said in a statement that Fintech lacked experience in the telecommunications industry and that approving the deal would have left Telecom Argentina “in the hands of a company comprised merely of investors.”

Neither Telecom Italia nor Mr. Martinez could be reached immediately for comment.

In an interview in 2013, Mr. Martinez described Argentina as a country of “incredible long-term growth opportunities.” He also said investing in an emerging market like Argentina entailed risk. Overcoming regulatory issues and other challenges “involves talking to the government and negotiating,” he said. “These environments are difficult and challenging but that doesn’t mean those bottlenecks can’t be overcome. I’m quite confident they will.”

Argentine officials did not respond to a request for comment and it was unclear why they took so long to reject the deal. “The fact that it took two years to make this decision raises questions,” said Enrique Carrier, a Buenos Aires-based telecommunications analyst. “This is taking place two months before a new government comes into power.”

Faced with term limits, Argentine President Cristina Kirchner is leaving office in December. Mr. Carrier said the deal could end up being litigated in court and eventually decided by an incoming administration.

Mr. Martinez holds a 40% stake in Argentine cable-TV operator Cablevision, a unit majority-owned by Grupo Clarin, Argentina’s biggest multimedia company. Mrs. Kirchner, who has longed accused the group of “coup-mongering,” approved a law in 2009 aimed at dismantling the group and reducing its influence.

11. CHINA’S SINOPEC SAYS LABOR CONFLICT HITS ARGENTINA OUTPUT (Platts Commodity News)
By Charles Newbery
15 October 2015

Buenos Aires (Platts)–15Oct2015/926 pm EDT/126 GMT China’s Sinopec has halted some of its oil and natural gas production in southern Argentina as union workers stop operations at a field.

The Sinopec Argentina Exploration unit said the workers took control of its Las Heras 3 field and related facilities in the province of Santa Cruz.

“This is affecting the production of oil and gas,” it said in a statement late Wednesday.

Sinopec said the conflict started October 8, led by Ruben Uribe, a director of the Union of Private Oil and Gas Workers in Santa Cruz.

The company said the conflict has started to cut its oil production by about 7,000 b/d and gas by 190,000 cu m/d due to a lack of storage capacity.

The union could not be reached for comment.

Sinopec produces 28,800 b/d of crude in Argentina, or 5.4% of the 536,000 b/d national total, and 2.2 million cu m/d of gas, or 1.8% of the 118 million cu m/d national total. Most of its production is in the south.

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ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA – Oct 8, 2015

10 octubre, 2015

theguardian.com
Pinochet directly ordered killing on US soil of Chilean diplomat, papers reveal

by Jonathan Franklin
Oct. 8, 2015
2 min read
original
General Augusto Pinochet was so concerned about covering up his involvement in the assassination that he considered murdering his own spy chief, Manuel Contreras.
General Augusto Pinochet was so concerned about covering up his involvement in the assassination that he considered murdering his own spy chief, Manuel Contreras. Photograph: Roberto Candia/AP

General Augusto Pinochet directly ordered the 1976 assassination of a Chilean diplomat who was killed in a car bomb in Washington DC, according top secret US intelligence documents declassified by the Obama administration.

The documents, which were handed to the Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet, on Tuesday in Santiago by the US secretary of state, John Kerry, also show that the former dictator was so concerned with covering up his role in the murder that he planned to assassinate his own head of intelligence, General Manuel Contreras.
Orlando Letelier, a former defence and foreign minister under President Salvador Allende, was tortured and incarcerated after Pinochet’s 1973 coup. He later fled to the US and worked at the Institute of Policy Studies in Washington DC.

Letelier, who had once been Chile’s ambassador to the US, was murdered on 21 September 1976 by a car bomb planted under the driver’s seat of his vehicle just a mile from the White House.

Ronni Moffitt, an American colleague, was also killed in the blast. Her husband Michael survived but was badly wounded.

Letelier’s son, Senator Juan Pablo Letelier, confirmed to the Guardian that he had received copies of the newly released documents, which are understood to include papers from the CIA.

Letelier described reading the declassified documents and discovering a memo from George Shultz, who served as secretary of state in the 1980s, to President Ronald Reagan.

“[Shultz] informs [the president] that there is a conclusive document from the CIA that shows Pinochet ordered the murder of my father. This is concrete information about how Pinochet covered up his responsibility,” he said.

According to Letelier, who is among the first to have read the newly released documents, they also included evidence that the dictator intended to have his own spy chief murdered to cover up his role in the assassination.

“In his [Pinochet’s] predisposition to defend his position he planned to eliminate Manuel Contreras to keep him from talking,” said Senator Letelier in an interview with the Mesa Central programme on Tele13 Radio. Asked to clarify, Letelier said “physically eliminate”.

Peter Kornbluh, author of The Pinochet File: A Declassified Dossier of Atrocity and Accountability, said the documents “help provide historical accountability in the killing of these two wonderful people” and called them “the missing documents” in the ongoing efforts to unravel one of the most notorious acts of international terrorism in the US capital.

Kornbluh, a senior analyst at the National Security Archives, called for the full release of all the intelligence documents on Pinochet’s role in the Letelier-Moffitt bombing.

Investigators in the US and Chile are poring through the records searching for evidence that CIA officials had forewarning but did not stop the assassination plan.

Speculation that the CIA was aware of the plot to kill Letelier is based on previously declassified records showing that Manuel Contreras was paid by the CIA before the bombing and was in regular contact with top officials at the spy agency.

The US eventually sought to extradite Contreras of the murder, but Chile’s supreme court blocked the extradition.

Pinochet removed Contreras from his post under US pressure and dismantled and replaced the Dina spy agency he had once run. After Chile returned to democracy in 1990 Contreras was indicted in the Letelier case and eventually served seven years for the assassination.

Contreras, who died in August, always denied responsibility and blamed the CIA for the bombing

“It is very important that these documents have been declassified,” said the Chilean foreign minister, Heraldo Muñoz. “It helps us to clarify a painful historical moment for our country.”
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PRESS CLIPS – THURSDAY..

1. YPF WON’T OVERPAY FOR PETROBRAS ARGENTINA ASSETS, CFO SAYS (Bloomberg News)

2. ARGENTINA SAYS FUGITIVE SPY CHIEF FLEW TO U.S. AFTER PROSECUTOR’S DEATH (Reuters News)

3. ARGENTINA SAYS OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION VENTURE IN FALKLANDS ILLEGAL (Fox News)

4. ENGINEER RAISED ON RANCH IN ARGENTINA GUIDES SPACECRAFT’S DESCENT TO MARS (Fox News)

5. ARGENTINA RISK: RISK OVERVIEW (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)

6. ARGENTINA RISK: ALERT – RISK SCENARIO WATCHLIST (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)

7. S&P AFFIRMS ‘CCC-‘ RATINGS ON PROVINCE OF CORDOBA (Dow Jones Institutional News)

8. 36 HOURS IN BUENOS AIRES (NYTimes.com Feed)

1. YPF WON’T OVERPAY FOR PETROBRAS ARGENTINA ASSETS, CFO SAYS (Bloomberg News)
By Rakteem Katakey and Daniel Cancel
October 7, 2015

*Company knows `real value’ of unit, price must meet criteria
*CFO declines to confirm or deny report that YPF dropped bid

YPF SA, Argentina’s largest company, knows the fair value of Petroleo Brasileiro SA’s local assets and will only proceed with an acquisition if the price meets its criteria, Chief Financial Officer Daniel Gonzalez said.

The executive declined to confirm or deny an article published Wednesday in La Nacion newspaper that said YPF abandoned a bid after Petrobras Argentina asked it to raise its reported $900 million offer for a 67 percent stake.

“We know what the real value is and we’re very disciplined about what price we will pay,” Gonzalez said in an interview at the Oil & Money conference in London.

Petrobras Argentina, which has a market value of $1.2 billion, is focusing mostly on unconventional exploration and production and has started drilling at the vast Vaca Muerta shale gas and oil deposit in Neuquen province, where YPF has sunk 400 wells.

YPF, which last year purchased natural-gas assets from Apache Corp. for $800 million, is concentrating on gas projects, Gonzalez said at the conference. Petrobras Argentina has pumped about 6.5 percent of the country’s total gas output this year, according to the Energy Secretariat.

Petrobras’s press department didn’t immediately reply to an e-mailed request for comment.
Petrobras sold more than 20 oil and gas fields to Argentine energy producer Cia. General de Combustibles in March for $101 million.

YPF’s American depositary receipts rose 7.5 percent to $19.03 at 3:20 p.m. in New York, boosting the company’s market value to $7.5 billion. Petrobras Argentina’s ADRs fell 1 percent to $5.45.

2. ARGENTINA SAYS FUGITIVE SPY CHIEF FLEW TO U.S. AFTER PROSECUTOR’S DEATH (Reuters News)
By Richard Lough
October 7, 2015

A fugitive former spy chief accused by the Argentine government of involvement in the murky death of a federal prosecutor in January flew from Brazil to the United States a month later, Argentina’s security ministry said on Tuesday.

The ministry said Interpol in Brazil provided the information on Antonio Stiuso, one-time operations chief of the now disbanded Intelligence Secretariat, after a “blue notice” seeking details on Stiuso’s location was issued last month.

Argentina suspects Stiuso is seeking refuge in the United States and has criticized Washington for failing to answer repeated enquiries about the spy master’s whereabouts.

“A similar report is required from Interpol in Washington,” the Security Ministry said in a statement.

Stiuso flew from Porto Alegre to Miami on Feb. 19 using an Italian passport, Argentina said, citing the report. Interpol declined to comment.

Relations between Argentina have the United States have soured under President Cristina Fernandez, who frequently rails against imperialist powers and gluttonous financial markets in the West.

Analysts say the latest rise in diplomatic tensions is a headache for the ruling party’s presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli, who is said by advisors to favor improving Argentina’s foreign relations. Argentina votes on Oct. 25

State prosecutor Alberto Nisman was found with a single bullet to the head days after accusing Fernandez of trying to cover up Iran’s alleged role in the 1994 truck-bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires.

Fernandez and her ministers say Stiuso tricked Nisman into fabricating baseless allegations to destabilize the government and then needed him dead, and have previously questioned whether the spy chief was working for the United States.

The attack on the AMIA center killed 85 people, the deadliest in Argentine history. Iran has repeatedly denied any link to the bombing and an Argentine judge tossed out Nisman’s accusations.

3. ARGENTINA SAYS OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION VENTURE IN FALKLANDS ILLEGAL (Fox News)
October 7, 2015

The oil and gas exploration activities being undertaken by Noble Energy Falklands Limited in an area near the disputed Falkland Islands are “illegal” and “clandestine,” the Argentine government said.

Argentina claims sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, which Latin Americans call the Malvinas and are under British control.

The Energy Ministry said in a resolution published on Tuesday in the Official Bulletin that it notified the Foreign Ministry and prosecutors of the decision to outlaw Noble’s operations “to allow them to take the legal actions they consider necessary in their areas of jurisdiction.”

Federal Judge Lilian Herraez, who is based in the city of Rio Grande, ordered the seizure of $156.4 million worth of assets, as well as the impounding of ships and confiscation of other property, belonging to oil companies that operate illegally in Falklands waters.

Noble Energy Falklands Limited is not registered with the Energy Secretariat, which sent a strongly worded statement to the company via the Foreign Ministry in October 2014, the government said.

The oil company did not respond to the statement and the government declared its operations illegal, officials said.

In August 2013, the government barred four British oil companies carrying out exploration work in waters near the Falkland Islands from operating in Argentina.

The measure targeted Borders & Southern Petroleum, Desire Petroleum, Argos Resources and Falkland Oil and Gas.

In May 2012, Argentina’s Energy Secretariat declared the companies’ activities in waters near the disputed islands to be “illegal and clandestine.”

The South Atlantic archipelago was the object of a brief war in the early 1980s pitting Argentina against Britain.

Argentine troops invaded the Falklands on April 2, 1982, at the order of the military junta then in power in Buenos Aires.

Full-fledged fighting officially began on May 1, 1982, with the arrival of a British task force, and ended 45 days later with the surrender of the Argentines.

The conflict claimed nearly 1,000 lives – some 700 Argentines and 255 British soldiers and sailors.

Buenos Aires demands that Britain comply with a 1965 United Nations resolution describing London’s control of the Falklands – which dates from 1833 – as colonialism and calling on the parties to resolve the dispute through dialogue.

London has refused to discuss the question of sovereignty and says the Falklanders should decide their own future.

4. ENGINEER RAISED ON RANCH IN ARGENTINA GUIDES SPACECRAFT’S DESCENT TO MARS (Fox News)
October 07, 2015

Miguel San Martin developed a passion for space exploration as a child, when he heard about missions to the moon and Mars while living on a ranch in Argentina, leading him to become an engineer who now works for NASA and specializes in navigation and robot descents on the Red Planet.

“I was part of the team that developed this new method for landing a vehicle on Mars,” the MIT graduate told EFE.

The 56-year-old San Martin is chief engineer for systems to guide and control spacecraft from the U.S. space agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

“The system is comprised of a set of propulsion engines and ropes that kept the robotic vehicle Curiosity hanging as if it was a hovering crane,” the Argentine-born engineer said.

Curiosity landed on Mars in August 2012 with the mission of finding water and signs of microbial life, among other tasks.

To land the nearly one-ton rover, engineers had to innovate and “instead of having a helicopter hovering, we used propulsion rockets,” San Martin said.

When he arrived at JPL in 1985, San Martin said he felt “it was a dream come true.”

“I had been following the Viking mission, the first craft to reach Mars (in 1976),” San Martin said, adding that the Apollo 11 moon landing in July 1969 also made an impression on him as a boy.

San Martin worked on the Pathfinder mission, whose Sojourner rover landed on Mars in July 1997, cushioned by airbags “that bounced without control until they settled down and deflated.”

“Because of that experience, I was hired to work on Spirit and Opportunity,” San Martin said, referring to other robots that landed on Mars using the airbag system.

The idea for a soft landing by Curiosity using a crane, called Skycrane, and ropes emerged in casual talks around coffee with colleagues, San Martin said.

The engineer has worked on all of the robots now on Mars, and he created the algorithms to program the spacecraft’s computers, a job that he admitted was done while listening to jazz and tango music.

“Since I was a child, I liked toys with batteries and movement,” San Martin said, recalling a time when his heroes were inventors like Thomas Edison and German rocket scientist Wernher von Braun.

“My father was also my inspiration since he had plenty of patience to explain how things worked to me,” San Martin said. “He is a civil engineer and encouraged me to come study in the United States.”

The expert on Mars landings said high schools should orient academic courses toward engineering careers, since there are plenty of jobs in the fields.

“At NASA, we need more Hispanics, and here the accent in your speech doesn’t matter if you do good work,” San Martin said.

5. ARGENTINA RISK: RISK OVERVIEW (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)
7 October 2015

RISK RATINGS Current Current Previous Previous
Rating Score Rating Score
Overall assessment D 64 D 65
Security risk C 43 C 43
Political stability risk C 50 C 50
Government effectiveness risk D 61 D 61
Legal & regulatory risk D 72 D 75
Macroeconomic risk E 100 E 100
Foreign trade & payments risk D 75 D 75
Financial risk D 62 D 62
Tax policy risk D 69 D 69
Labour market risk D 64 D 64
Infrastructure risk C 47 C 47

Note: E=most risky; 100 = most risky. The risk ratings model is run once a quarter.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Argentina remains D-rated. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner faces many challenges in the form of rampant inflation and persistent pressure for peso devaluation, which has prompted the authorities to introduce stringent controls. Policy adjustments under a new administration from December 2015 will increase the risk of social unrest, keeping political stability risk high. Legislative gridlock will impair political effectiveness. Interventionism in response to economic distortions may decline in the medium term, but legal and regulatory risk remain high. Financial risk will also remain high, reflecting high market risk, weak confidence in banks and a recent history of sovereign default. Strong unions, frequent strikes and inflexible labour rules will heighten labour market risk, while a lack of investment in utilities will weaken infrastructure.

Security risk

Security risk is less of a concern than in much of Latin America, but the perception that the security environment is deteriorating is rising. Crime rose sharply during the 2001 crisis and has not come down since. Despite recent reforms, the police are still regarded as ineffective, or occasionally complicit in some crimes. On the hard left, foreign capital and the banking system are still demonised for the part they played in the historic 2001 crisis. But the risk of direct action against representatives of these groups has faded. The illegal drugs trade generally does not pose a direct threat to businesses but is a source of violence and corruption. Argentina’s large Jewish population makes it a potential target of terrorism perpetrated by Islamic extremists.

Political stability risk

Argentina continues to grapple with a high risk of violent social unrest, and fraught relations between the government and major political and economic actors (including the opposition, businesses and the media). President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was re-elected by a record margin in October 2011 but her popularity has fallen rapidly since then as the economy has weakened and inflation has accelerated. Even after a new administration takes office in December 2015, risks to political stability will persist, given the likelihood of difficult austerity measures intended to rein in inflation and a polarised political environment. In this climate, frequent confrontations and halting progress on the legislative agenda are likely.

Government effectiveness risk

Weak institutions are a shortcoming of the political system. One by-product of a strong presidential system, reinforced by the dominance of the Peronist party, is weak congressional oversight of the executive. There is a long history of political interference with the judiciary, although in a recent positive development, the Supreme Court ruled a controversial reform-seen as an attempt by the administration of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to exert greater control over the court system-unconstitutional. Ample budget resources have given the government the upper hand in managing relations with the provinces, although these have the potential to be disruptive in Argentina’s federal political system. The low quality of the bureaucracy is expected to persist, assuming a long-awaited public-sector reform is delayed indefinitely, and could hinder implementation of government policies. Increases in investment spending have been poorly targeted, as political considerations take precedence.

Legal & regulatory risk

Confidence in the rules of the game remains weak after almost a decade of populist policies intended to maximise voter support at the expense of trust in contract rights. A fresh sovereign default in July 2014 complicated the government’s efforts to make amends with creditors and investors in order to attract fresh inflows of much-needed dollars. Moreover, the government has not dismantled the distortionary controls implemented over the course of recent years. Price controls in the form of compulsory price agreements persist, as do risks of expropriation of foreign assets amid ongoing financing problems, although this risk seems likely to subside gradually, assuming a more business-friendly administration takes office in December 2015. Government regulation of private businesses in “strategic” sectors will remain intensive, at least in the short term.

Macroeconomic risk

Several years of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have taken their toll in the form of rampant inflation, which has in turn caused sustained real peso appreciation, a deterioration in the current account, devaluation speculation and a fall in foreign reserves. Following a moderate peso adjustment in January 2014, we assume further substantial depreciation from 2016. This should allow the peso to weaken in real terms, and begin to provide a boost to export competitiveness and the current account. But without a commitment to macroeconomic-policy tightening, rampant inflation would rapidly erode any competitiveness benefits brought about by the adjustment of the peso. We expect such policy measures to start when a new administration takes office in December 2015, but the process will be a difficult one and the risk of currency crisis, which would prompt a deep recession, will persist in the short term.

Foreign trade & payments risk

Unpredictable and distortionary trade measures will persist in the short term as the Fernandez government resorts to protectionism to prop up the external accounts and maximise fiscal revenue from exports. A deterioration of the balance of payments-which apart from an increasingly overvalued peso, reflects persistently low foreign direct investment, negative portfolio flows and high levels of capital flight-heightens the risk of tighter foreign-exchange and capital controls being imposed. There is likely to be some improvement in the next administration, which takes office in December 2015, resulting in some reduction in distortionary trade measures and controls. But liberalisation will take time and will be vulnerable to setbacks.

Financial risk

Access to financing remains a weakness, as an history of crisis has reduced confidence in the domestic financial system dramatically and there is little prospect of an improvement in the forecast period. Regulation and supervision have been strengthened since the 2001-02 crisis, with weaknesses, including a high level of exposure to public-sector debt and a high level of dollar-lending not backed by dollar revenue streams, having been addressed. But this has not produced a recovery in longer-term deposits that would lead to growth in longer-term finance. This is against a background of adverse policy decisions (such as the 2008 nationalisation of the private pension funds), growing political uncertainty and a deterioration of the public finances. The latter makes crowding-out by the public sector a likely problem, at least until public-sector external financing constraints are removed via a negotiated settlement with holdout creditors.

Tax policy risk

Despite moderate marginal corporate tax rates, the tax system has serious deficiencies and is unduly complex. There is also an overdependence on consumption taxes (VAT, value-added tax), which makes tax collection highly procyclical. The introduction of a levy on financial transactions and on export taxes since 2002 has worsened structural distortions in the public finances. The government is reluctant to scale back export taxes, because they are partly exempt from the requirement to share revenues with the provinces. However, were these taxes to be eliminated, the government would need to find alternative sources of finance. A wholesale reform of the public sector and the tax system, including the fiscal relationship between the central and local administrations, has been delayed for years and the government appears to have no plans to address these issues. The revenue-sharing reform, in particular, is politically sensitive.

Labour market risk

Labour market strengths include a relatively well-educated, productive and flexible workforce, but they must be set against strong unions, relatively frequent strikes and rising real wages. Falling unemployment, and close political ties between the government and trade-union leaders have led to a full recovery in real wages over the course of the past six years. The incidence of strikes and protests, which has increased in recent years, will remain high, driven by politically powerful trade-union leaders and by workers seeking to bolster real incomes amid relatively severe inflation. As unemployment levels fall, skills shortages will become more of a problem for businesses, compounded by a lack of effective training programmes in both the public and private sectors. There seems little chance of reforms to improve labour market flexibility.

Infrastructure risk

Argentina’s strengths include a well-developed telecommunications and information technology network, and relatively low property rental costs, but the gains from upgrading physical infrastructure during the 1990s are being eroded. A long-standing failure to adjust a plethora of tariffs frozen during the 2001-02 economic crisis has discouraged private investment, and although the government has taken a more active role in public works, this has been insufficient to prevent bottlenecks from emerging, especially in energy. The 2010 sovereign debt restructuring notwithstanding, external financing constraints seem unlikely to ease anytime soon. This will delay improvements until towards the end of the forecast period, raising the prospect that infrastructure bottlenecks become a constraint on growth for the next few years.

6. ARGENTINA RISK: ALERT – RISK SCENARIO WATCHLIST (Economist Intelligence Unit – Risk Briefing)
7 October 2015

Scenario Category Probability Impact Intensity

Election-related violence erupts around the general election Security High Moderate 12

Social unrest increases amid government corruption allegations Political stability Low Very high 10
The Supreme Court becomes politicised
after new appointments are made Government effectiveness Moderate High 12
Government fails to secure negotiated settlement
with holdout creditors, leading to continued concerns
over rule of law and contract rights Legal & regulatory Moderate Moderate 9
Interventionism persists in institutions controlled
by Ms Fernandez and her allies Legal & regulatory Moderate High 12

Failure to tighten macroeconomic policy pushes
the economy into crisis Macroeconomic High Very high 20

Dollars are not made available for debt-servicing
amid tight controls Foreign trade & payments Moderate Very high 15

New barriers to trade are imposed to prop up
the current account Foreign trade & payments Very hig h High 20

The peso is devalued Financial Very high Very high 25

Corporate taxes are raised to help bolster the public finances Tax policy Moderate High 12

Deterioration of provincial finances forces further ad hoc
revenue-raising measures Tax policy High Moderate 12

Strike activity in the increasingly atomised union movement increases Labour market Very high Moderate 15

Businesses are hit by skills shortages Labour market Moderate Moderate 9

Intensity colour key: 1 to 4 5 to 8 9 to 12 13 to 16 17 to 25

Note: Intensity is a product of the probability and impact ratings, where ‘Very low’ scores 1 and ‘Very high’ scores 5.

SECURITY

Election-related violence erupts around the general election
High probability; Moderate impact; Risk intensity = 12

Local elections held on August 23rd in Tucumán province were marred by several serious incidents, including the burning of ballot boxes and a violent police response to protesters who claimed that the vote was tainted by fraud. Given allegations of widespread irregularities, opposition leaders refused to acknowledge their defeat (the candidate for the ruling Frente para la Victoria, FV, Juan Manzur, won the election) and called for a protest, held on August 24th and attended by around 10,000 people. José Cano, the candidate for the Acuerdo para el Bicentenario, a coalition of the main opposition parties (Unión Cívica Radical, Propuesta Republicana and Frente Renovador), took his argument to the courts in an effort to nullify the ballots and call a repeat election. The provincial Supreme Court rejected this appeal, arguing that irregularities did not amount to fraud. However, the ongoing scandal has stirred tension over the fairness and legitimacy of Argentina’s electoral system, even if it has been propelled at least in part by an opposition strategy of seeking to invalidate a probable victory in the October 25th presidential election for Daniel Scioli, the FV’s presidential candidate. The ruling has also shone a spotlight on problematic elements of Argentina’s democracy, including the outdated electoral processes of some provinces, political pressure on judges and prosecutors, and the resorting to clientelism—chiefly by Peronists—in the poor north of the country and the Buenos Aires conurbation. It also underscored the tense political climate, highlighting the possibility of unrest surrounding the national elections in October. Events in Tucuman suggest that violent social unrest surrounding what will be a relatively close general election (closer than any during the Kirchner administrations) remains a risk.

POLITICAL STABILITY

Social unrest increases amid government corruption allegations
Low probability; Very high impact; Risk intensity = 10

The lingering effects of a scandal that shocked the political establishment earlier this year present a risk to political stability. The scandal surrounded the death in January of Alberto Nisman, a federal prosecutor, in mysterious circumstances days after formally accusing the president of conspiring with Iran to cover up the latter’s involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in the capital, Buenos Aires—the country’s largest ever terrorist attack. Investigations have still not established whether Mr Nisman committed suicide or was murdered, but opinion polls suggest that a majority of the public believes that the latter is the case, highlighting a clear lack of faith in government and state institutions. Ms Fernández’s opinion poll ratings have started to recover after falling sharply in the immediate aftermath of the scandal, aided by a court decision to dismiss Mr Nisman’s accusations. Nonetheless, public frustration over a lack of answers regarding Mr Nisman’s death—as well as the continued failure to bring the perpetrators of the 1994 bombing to justice—will heighten the risk of social unrest. Even before the Nisman affair, the political outlook had been clouded by the state of the economy. Devaluation pressure has persisted and wage demands have skyrocketed amid rampant inflation. In this context—and given the country’s strong tradition of protest and powerful unions—risks to political stability will be high in the run-up to the October 2015 presidential poll. Argentina does have a relatively recent history of messy political transitions (most recently during the 2001-02 economic crisis, which saw four presidents in the space of a few months), and the threat of further triggers for social unrest impeding the October 2015 presidential election cannot be discounted altogether.

GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS

The Supreme Court becomes politicised after new appointments are made
Moderate probability; High impact; Risk intensity = 12

Carlos Fayt, a Supreme Court judge, announced in September 2015 that he would step down in December, leaving the next government to replace both him and another recently retired judge. The news has stoked debate about whether the court can remain free of political influence, but the backdrop to Mr Fayt’s resignation suggests that its independence is not under threat in the short to medium term. Mr Fayt, 97, has been a Supreme Court judge since Argentina’s return to democratic rule in 1983. Earlier this year, supporters of Ms Fernández sought to impeach Mr Fayt, accusing him of being mentally and physically incapable of the job. (Judges must retire when they reach 75 or seek legislative approval for a five-year extension. However, Mr Fayt’s situation represented a grey area because he was already 75 when the constitutional rule was introduced in 1994.) The attack was largely seen as a manoeuvre to oust Mr Fayt and substitute him for a government-friendly judge, particularly with Ms Fernández seeking to exert influence beyond her presidency. The government had already moved to replace Raúl Zaffaroni—a recent retiree of the Supreme Court, which comprises five judges—with Roberto Carlés. However, Mr Carlés was rejected by the opposition in Congress, which perceived him to be a political puppet of the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FV, a faction of the Partido Justicialista, or the Peronists), and the government placed his candidacy on hold. By deciding to retire on December 11th, a day after the new government takes office, Mr Fayt is widely viewed to have overcome the onslaught of Ms Fernández and her political supporters. The president has sought to protect herself and her political legacy by entrusting public institutions to her allies. However, the Supreme Court would seem to be beyond the president’s grasp. It is her successor who will now have to propose candidates to replace Mr Fayt and Mr Zaffaroni. Throughout Ms Fernández’s time in office, the Supreme Court has resisted government pressure and is viewed as largely impartial despite a broader politicisation of public institutions, including lower levels of the judiciary. Signals from the main presidential candidates suggest that upcoming Supreme Court appointments should be less politically motivated. Mr Carlés was proposed by the current administration with no cross-party consultation, but Daniel Scioli, the FV’s presidential candidate, has highlighted his preference for dialogue and consensus. Mauricio Macri, the presidential front-runner for the centre-right opposition Propuesta Republicana party, has also made institutional reforms and the separation of powers cornerstones of his election manifesto. In any case, the two-thirds majority approval of candidates required in the Senate (the upper house of Congress) is an effective check on politically motivated appointments to the Supreme Court. In this context, we do not view Mr Fayt’s resignation as capable of significantly increasing the risk of a weaker, less independent Supreme Court. However, any broader meaningful reform of the judiciary under Mr Scioli, who we expect to prevail in the upcoming presidential election, remains unlikely because of an historic tendency for executive-branch overreach among Peronists. As a consequence, the problems of corruption and inefficiency in the judicial branch as a whole will persist.

LEGAL & REGULATORY

Government fails to secure negotiated settlement with holdout creditors, leading to continued concerns over rule of law and contract rights
Moderate probability; Moderate impact; Risk intensity = 9

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Nuevo avance K contra la Magistratura

9 octubre, 2015

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1834822-el-kirchnerismo-en-la-magistratura-desplazo-a-funcionarios-del-cuerpo-de-auditores-del-poder-judicial

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 5, 2015

5 octubre, 2015

1. ARGENTINA’S SCIOLI URGED BY ALLY TO PURSUE ACCORD WITH CREDITORS (Bloomberg News)

2. BOFA BANKER LEADING ARGENTINA BOND DEALS SEES MORE SALES IN 2015 (Bloomberg News)

3. RIVALS BLAST ABSENT SCIOLI IN ARGENTINA’S FIRST PRESIDENTIAL VOTE DEBATE (Reuters News)

4. ARGENTINE FRONT-RUNNER SCIOLI SAYS HOLDOUTS NOT A PRIORITY (Reuters News)

5. ARGENTINE RULING PARTY EXTENDS PRESIDENTIAL VOTE LEAD – POLL (Reuters News)

6. ARGENTINA PLANS NEW DEBT ISSUE AFTER $5.9 BILLION BOND PAYMENT (Reuters News)

7. IN ARGENTINA, WHERE CULTURE IS ‘A RIGHT,’ A FREE NEW ARTS CENTER OPENS (NPR.org)

8. ARGENTINA PROPOSES A 100-YEAR-PLUS COPYRIGHT EXTENSION ON PHOTOGRAPHY (EFF.org)

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1. ARGENTINA’S SCIOLI URGED BY ALLY TO PURSUE ACCORD WITH CREDITORS (Bloomberg News)
By Katia Porzecanski
October 2, 2015

*Governor of Salta province says Argentina needs investment
*Argentina should reveal inflation methodology, Urtubey says

Daniel Scioli, the ruling party candidate and frontrunner in Argentina’s presidential elections later this month, should hold talks with holdout creditors from the nation’s 2001 default as soon as he takes power, said ally Juan Manuel Urtubey.

Urtubey, the governor of Argentina’s Salta province, told reporters in New York that resolving the decade-long legal battle will allow the nation to regain access to overseas capital, which is crucial for improving its competitiveness. Only with the funding can Argentina develop the infrastructure required to make local producers competitive, he said. It’s also the key to reducing subsidies that have widened the fiscal gap, he said.

“Because of what settling with the holdouts means in terms of financing for Argentina, you’re in a position where you’re losing money if you don’t do it,” Urtubey told reporters at the Council of the Americas in New York. “We need financing to grow.”

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s refusal to negotiate with the holdouts, who won a U.S. court ruling requiring the nation to pay their repudiated debt when making payments on other bonds, pushed Argentina into default last year for a second time in 13 years. Still, prices on the nations notes have surged on speculation the her successor will resolve the dispute and unwind policies that fueled inflation and slowed the economy.

Scioli said last month that he would try to meet obligations with Argentina’s creditors under “fair, equal and legal” terms. Urtubey said Scioli is aware of investors’ expectations for the next administration.
“Our biggest challenge is getting things done on time so that those expectations can transform into reality and investment in Argentina,” he said.

The nation’s statistics agency, which unveiled a new consumer price index last year after being censured by the International Monetary Fund for misreporting economic data including inflation, should once again revise its methodology, Urtubey said. Because official figures have continued to diverge from private estimates, there is no reference point to guide public policy or anchor inflation expectations, he said.

Regarding investors’ concerns that Fernandez will remain influential during the next administration, Urtubey said that the decisions will be made by the government in power.

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2. BOFA BANKER LEADING ARGENTINA BOND DEALS SEES MORE SALES IN 2015 (Bloomberg News)
By Carolina Millan
October 2, 2015

*Three or four bond deals may price before end of year
*IPO market may restart in 2016 led by the financial sector

Bank of America Corp. has surged to the top of Argentina league tables for bond sales this year, advising on the biggest deals from the Province of Buenos Aires to state-run energy company YPF SA.

Sebastian Loketek, head of Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment banking for Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, said the best year for Argentine issuance since 2011 may not be over yet. Three or four provincial and corporate debt sales may price before the end of the year for between $300 and $600 million each depending on market conditions, he said in an interview.

After a busy first half, issuance has slowed on increased volatility ahead of Oct. 25 elections and instability from the global selloff in commodities spilling over into Argentina.

“There will be market windows to price these deals,” he said. “We are recommending issuers to be ready so they can go as soon as they open. It’s going to be a volatile market from now until the end of the year and elections could be a differentiating catalyst for Argentina.”

BAML’s ranking among bond underwriters has jumped nine levels from last year after doing $2.5 billion of deals this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Loketek said there’s been increased interest from so-called “real-money accounts,” long-term investors such as mutual funds and pensions, in entering Argentina both through debt markets and mergers and acquisitions.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch rose 9 ranks in bond underwriting from the previous year.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch rose 9 ranks in bond underwriting from the previous year.
With Argentina bracing for regime change as president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner finishes her second term in December, Loketek says the market will start issuing on a larger scale once the government reforms regulations that restrict companies from repatriating profits and when the country reaches a resolution to the decade-long dispute with holdout creditors. The debt market in Argentina could pick up as soon as the second or third quarters of 2016, he added.

While ruling party candidate and front-runner Daniel Scioli is leading opinion polls to replace Fernandez, he has said he would focus his economic plan on promoting more investment and to provide predictability to policy. Opposition candidates Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa have promised to lift currency controls within the first 100 days.

All three leading candidates have acknowledged the need to settle litigation with hedge funds led by billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management in order to regain access to international capital markets.
“A resolution with the hold-outs will have an immediate effect on rates,” Loketek, 44, said. “I am convinced that the situation can be resolved.”

This year, the bank also advised Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Apco Oil & Gas International Inc. on its $427 million sale to Argentina’s Pluspetrol SA and worked with Caxias Do Sul, Brazil-based Lupatech SA on the sale of its Argentine assets to Sophia Capital for $22 million. In July, BAML also advised Colombia-based Almacenes Exito SA on the purchase of grocery chain Libertad as part of a $1.8 billion deal with Casino Guichard Perrachon SA.

Loketek also sees the market for initial public offerings recovering in the year ahead, with the most potential for companies in the financial industry followed by infrastructure and energy. There hasn’t been an Argentine IPO since technology company Globant SA went public in July 2014.

“It’s key that the IPO market starts out strong, with the right companies — those of a reasonable size and leaders in their industry,” he said. “There are some companies in Argentina that have the ability to open the market, we believe they will generate significant investor interest and we’re encouraging them to go.”

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3. RIVALS BLAST ABSENT SCIOLI IN ARGENTINA’S FIRST PRESIDENTIAL VOTE DEBATE (Reuters News)
By Richard Lough
October 5, 2015

Argentina’s presidential hopefuls sidestepped some of the most pressing economic issues facing the Latin American country in its first-ever presidential debate on Sunday, taking aim instead at the absence of ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli.

Scioli, the frontrunner in opinion polls to replace outgoing President Cristina Fernandez, said earlier on Sunday he would not take part because debates “often take an aggressive tone that goes against what the people are hoping for.”

Leading opposition candidate Mauricio Macri played up the concerns of some voters that Scioli would be a Fernandez puppet and not deliver the gradual change toward more open markets that he promises.

“I regret that Scioli is not here but it is clear that the (ruling party) is having trouble defining who will govern in the event it wins,” said Macri, who trails Scioli in polls by about 10 points.

Dissident Peronist Sergio Massa, placed third in the presidential race, said Scioli’s “silence is mocking society” and then left the remainder of his allotted time for the answer hanging in silence.

It was not immediately clear if Scioli’s empty debate stand would hurt his support. Opinion polls ahead of the Oct. 25 election have shown Scioli widening his lead over Macri and edging closer to the backing needed for a first round win.

There were few testy exchanges in a rigidly structured debate that saw each of the five candidates talk unchallenged on four subjects – economic development, education, security and strengthening democracy – and face one question from another candidate on each.

The candidates steered clear of Argentina’s debt default, capital controls imposed by outgoing President Cristina Fernandez and low foreign reserves.

Massa offered the most detailed economic policy platform, promising economic growth of 5 percent, credit for first time home buyers and the scrapping of export quotas on grains. He said he would also abolish income tax for workers.

Market-favorite Macri vowed to create jobs through infrastructure investment and lower inflation to single digits.

The other candidates, Margarita Stolbizer, Nicolas del Cano and Adolfo Rodriguez Saa are collectively polling less than 10 percent of voter backing.

Scioli’s absence dampened the fizz of the country’s first presidential debate, but still marked an important democratic step forward, analysts said.

“The debates should be institutionalized. They are one of many reforms like electronic voting that are needed to improve the quality of democracy in Argentina,” said Mariel Fornoni, director of the polling consultancy Management & Fit.

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4. ARGENTINE FRONT-RUNNER SCIOLI SAYS HOLDOUTS NOT A PRIORITY (Reuters News)
By Sarah Marsh
3 October 2015

* Scioli says offering better deal to creditors not high on agenda
* Poll shows could win Oct 25. election in first round

VILLA LA ÑATA, Argentina, Oct 3 (Reuters) – Argentina’s presidential front-runner Daniel Scioli said improving an offer to creditors suing the country over defaulted bonds would not be a priority if he wins an Oct. 25 election.

Whoever succeeds outgoing President Cristina Fernandez will inherit Argentina’s long battle with “holdout” investors who rejected its debt restructuring following a 2002 default to seek full repayment in the courts instead.

Under the outspoken leftist Fernandez, Argentina has refused to offer better terms to the litigating hedge funds it calls “vultures” than it did to those creditors who accepted steep writedowns in bond swaps.

“Argentina has shown willingness to pay and the capacity to do so, so we have to see now if they have the willingness to adapt themselves to what the world and Argentina is proposing,” ruling party candidate Scioli said late on Friday on the sidelines of a boxing tournament in the sporting club he built near his home in Villa la Ñata.

An opinion poll published on Friday showed he may be able to win in the first round, after widening his lead over his closest rival Mauricio Macri.

Economists say whoever wins will need to seek a swift settlement with the holdouts in order to obtain cheaper financing. Yet all the leading candidates have been tight-lipped on the subject as to admit this would be politically dangerous.

Asked if he would improve Argentina’s offer to the holdouts, Scioli said “it’s not a priority of my work agenda. Argentina’s proposal is clear, so let’s see what happens.”

The Buenos Aires Province governor, who has pledged to attract $30 billion of investment per year over the next four years, said he had met earlier on Friday with 70 foreign investors in areas such as energy and tourism.

“I see growing interest in Argentina and will personally get involved in looking for these investors,” he said.

Scioli, a former power boat champion who lost his right arm in a crash in 1989, regularly plays soccer in the Villa la Ñata sports club where the walls are festooned with campaign posters.

Sporting an orange baseball cap emblazoned with “Scioli for president”, he said it was sport that had given him the “inner force to do best and continue moving forwards” after the accident and he said he would make space for it in his agenda if he won the presidency.

“We’re going to win on Oct. 25, we’re going to deal Macri a knockout,” he said as he chatted with boxers in the dressing rooms before they went into the ring.

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5. ARGENTINE RULING PARTY EXTENDS PRESIDENTIAL VOTE LEAD – POLL (Reuters News)
4 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES, Oct 4 (Reuters) – Daniel Scioli, the ruling party’s candidate for Argentina’s presidential election, has extended his lead but cannot yet be sure of an outright win in this month’s first round, a poll showed on Sunday.

Scioli, from President Cristina Fernandez’s Front for Victory party, was drawing 38.6 percent support among those who have decided their vote, according to a Management & Fit poll.

That was up from 36.7 percent a month ago, and takes him closer to the 40 percent threshold he needs for an outright win on Oct. 25.

Scioli has made new investment a cornerstone of his campaign platform, but has given few clues on the changes he would make to state controls on the economy imposed by Fernandez, often defending her policies instead.

Backing for second-placed Mauricio Macri, a market-friendly businessman, is crumbling, down to 27.9 percent from 29.2 percent last month. His support is being eaten away both by Scioli’s rise and a surge in support for dissident Peronist Sergio Massa, up from around 12 percent in July to 21.5 percent in Sunday’s poll.

Macri is campaigning on a platform to reduce the state’s role in the economy and an end to the broad-based Peronist movement’s domination of Argentine politics, but has struggled to close the gap on Scioli.

Spending on social welfare programs has given the government a bedrock of support, especially among the poor, and many Argentinians say they want gradual or partial change and fear Macri would move too fast.

If no candidate wins 45 percent of valid votes or achieves 40 percent with a 10 point margin in the first round, the election will go to a run-off on Nov. 22.

The poll, which does not include undecided voters, was conducted between Sept 23 and Sept 29. It surveyed 2,400 people with an error margin of 2 percentage points.

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6. ARGENTINA PLANS NEW DEBT ISSUE AFTER $5.9 BILLION BOND PAYMENT (Reuters News)
By Sarah Marsh and Jorge Otaola
2 October 2015

BUENOS AIRES, Oct 2 (Reuters) – Argentina will on Monday pay the $5.9 billion maturity due for its Boden 15 bonds in cash and issue new debt the following day, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said on Friday.

The South American country, which is in default on some debt because of a legal fight with bondholders in the United States, targets raising $500 million in the auction of notes under Argentine law, Kicillof told a news conference.

The new Bonar 20 bonds will carry an 8 percent coupon, said the minister who added the final amount to be sold would depend on market appetite.

Investors would likely demand costly double-digit yields, said Jorge Piedrahita, CEO at broker Torino Capital, in the global context of china’s slowdown, volatility in emerging markets including neighboring Brazil and uncertainty over the timing of a U.S. interest rate hike.

Argentina’s public institutions, like the pension funds, which hold Boden 15 notes, may offer softer terms for the new debt.

“It has to yield double digits for investors to “voluntarily” buy it,” said Piedrahita.

The Boden 15 capital and interest payment on Monday is set to take a large chunk out of foreign reserves that stand at $32.453 billion. Argentina uses those reserves to pay debt, finance imports and prop up its currency.

Net foreign reserves, which exclude Argentina’s currency swap with China and reserve requirements for private banks, are estimated by economists to be much lower – between $14 to 16 billion and less than three months imports cover.

The Boden 15 payout means net reserves could drop as low as $8 billion.

Piedrahita said the dollar-strapped government whose mandate ends in December may be willing to pay a high price to shore up those low foreign reserves. President Cristina Fernandez’s government has also printed new pesos to finance extra spending ahead of the October 25 election.

Fernandez “is leaving a financial bomb for the next president,” said Piedrahita.

Whoever wins the presidency will have to resolve the decade-long legal-battle with “holdout” bondholders who rejected the restructuring terms after Argentina’s record default in 2002 in order to improve the government’s financing options.

A deal would spark a huge bond rally, meaning there may still be demand for the Bonar 2020 despite the international outlook.

“The rate anticipated represents a good opportunity given an incoming government will plan on resolving the debt fight to reduce its financing costs,” said Marcos Wentzel, director of local investment bank Puente.

7. IN ARGENTINA, WHERE CULTURE IS ‘A RIGHT,’ A FREE NEW ARTS CENTER OPENS (NPR.org)
By Bob Mondello
October 03, 2015

A new tourist attraction in Argentina — The Centro Cultural Kirchner in downtown Buenos Aires — has been posting some impressive numbers since it opened in mid-May. As many as 10,000 patrons a day are trooping through an ornate, turn-of-the-last-century building that has been converted into what’s said to be the fourth-largest cultural center in the world. Remarkably, everything in it is free, from video installations to comedy acts to symphony concerts.

They call the main concert hall La Ballena Azul, “The Blue Whale,” and it swims inside a grand Beaux Arts palace where, for most of the last century, folks in Buenos Aires mailed letters: the former Central Post Office. The Blue Whale auditorium — blimp-shaped, three stories high, holding 1,750 people — floats in what used to be the package-sorting area.

Why “floats”? Because the subway runs nearby, says guide Federico Baggio. “So the vibrations would not enter the symphony hall. It ended up having a whale shape, so that’s why they named it like that, but the purpose is acoustics.”

The Blue Whale is the most eye-catching attraction in the new Kirchner Cultural Center, but even it can’t upstage its surroundings. The Palacio de Correos, literally the “Postal Palace” — commissioned in 1889 and completed almost 30 years later — was the largest public building in Argentina when it opened in 1928. It’s eight stories tall, occupies a full city block behind a French Second Empire facade, and contains almost 1 million square feet of marble hallways, stained-glass ceilings and windows. You can also find traces of original post office fixtures, such as mailboxes and grand marble counters where you could finish and address your letters.

When the new architects changed things, to add, say, elevators, or a boxy, chandelier-like structure above the Blue Whale that’s big enough to mount exhibits in, they purposely used different materials: frosted glass, stainless steel. That way you never lose sight of the the ornate beauty of the original building — beauty that enticed President Juan Peron to move his presidential offices here in the 1940s from the nearby Casa Rosada.

And the grandest room — a spectacular vaulted space the size of a banquet hall that had been the office of the postal service director — became the headquarters for the Eva Peron Foundation, which dispensed charity and gifts to impoverished Argentine citizens. That space has been restored as a sort of museum exhibit, with everything from Eva Peron’s desk to bottles of champagne, letters piled all the way to the 20-foot ceiling in one corner, dozens of toys, go-carts, and other gifts of the sort she dispensed.

Approaching the desk, you hear recordings of actors’ voices re-creating what went on there — children excited over Christmas toys, or asking first lady “Evita” for something for their grandparents. It’s a scene some older visitors can remember from real life, and occasionally prompts tears.

These historic details resonated with the late President Nestor Kirchner, for whom the cultural center is now named, and for his widow, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who succeeded him as president. They’re from the Peronist party, and like Juan and Eva Peron, who founded that party, as well as such cultural institutions as the Argentine National Symphony, the arts are baked into their worldview, says Culture Minister Teresa Parodi.

“Culture is an investment for this government, not an expense,” she says.

So when Kirchner saw this abandoned building, the thought was “not to turn it into a shopping mall, or” — as happened to Washington, D.C.’s Old Post Office — “a grand hotel. Instead, they pictured a cultural space — an enormous workshop where people can be developers of their own culture.”

Parodi is herself a well-known singer/songwriter in Latin America, and when she accepted the Cabinet-level position of minister of culture, launching the new Kirchner Center became her responsibility.

At its debut on May 21, it was a work in progress, and even months later, there is work going on. Performance halls are complete, and six floors of art galleries are getting there, many devoted to what you might call art that’s “gone postal”: stamps in collages, a town’s response when every citizen received a letter with a different story, performance art video installations about mail that aggravates and inflames.

The public sector in Argentina, says Parodi, operates on the assumption that the arts belong to everyone.

“We consider culture to be a right,” she says.

That’s why the Culture Ministry stages concerts and workshops for the homeless in shantytowns, and why, at the Kirchner Center, everything is currently free. There will eventually be a “symbolic payment,” she says, noting that the building needs to be kept up, and artists paid for their work. But she says corporations will be invited to sponsor events and keep prices low and seats and galleries full, as they are now.

During his tour, Baggio notes that whenever the audience fills the building, Thursday to Sunday, it regains the feeling of all those people rushing to deliver mail, moving everywhere with this rhythm of rush hour.

That rhythm is clearly benefiting the artists who play here. Especially the Argentine National Symphony. The Perons may have founded it in 1948, but they didn’t provide it with a home, and it has wandered, homeless for 67 years, from opera house to concert hall to auditorium.

Now, to the evident delight of the public, it has taken up permanent residency at the Kirchner Center. In July, the symphony hosted Argentina’s own Martha Argerich, one of the world’s great classical pianists. Parodi says 1.2 million people tried to access the ticket website (they collapsed it) for an auditorium that holds fewer than 2,000. “She was bigger than the Rolling Stones,” Parodi marvels, “which speaks well for a country that is very cultured.”

In keeping with the building’s origins, that symphony concert also included music from the movie The Postman, conducted by its Argentine composer Luis Enriquez Bacalov, as well as tango selections. And in keeping with the idea that culture should belong to everyone — and that 1.2 million people had wanted to hear Argerich — it was simulcast nationally on radio and TV.

Parodi seems so personally devoted to the ideas espoused by the Culture Ministry that I asked her whether she’d ever written a song that reflects the work she’s doing there. She explained that that’s not how songwriting works. But I said: Look, I’m doing a radio piece — I need a song to go out on.

She laughed, and pointed me to a song titled “La Canción es Urgente” (“The Song Is Urgent”), which she wrote about the role of popular song in the story of a people. She says it’s about her dreams for her people, which makes it a love song. And she cites a lyric about the power of a song:

That your voice lifts it
That it releases it in the wind
And that it sounds of victory
When it breaks down the silence.

Parodi says while in her career as a singer it has been moving to be onstage, in the case of the Kirchner Center, she’s also moved to be part of the audience, and part of the process of creating a cultural center — “doing all the things necessary so all of this can keep going.”

8. ARGENTINA PROPOSES A 100-YEAR-PLUS COPYRIGHT EXTENSION ON PHOTOGRAPHY (EFF.org)
By Maira Sutton
October 2, 2015

A new front has opened in publishers’ global war on the public domain. Lawmakers of Argentina’s ruling party are proposing a vast extension of copyright terms on photography—from 20 years after publication to 70 years after the photographer’s death. That means that the term of restriction of photographic works would be extended by an average 120 years.

The law would extend copyrights on works retroactively, so a lifetime of photos that are already in the public domain would be re-captured by copyright. That would bring about a huge amount of legal uncertainty over works that have already been shared, remixed, sold, and modified in innumerable ways. If this bill passes, many tens of thousands of photographs that have been uploaded into cultural archives, including Wikipedia, may have to be erased from the Internet or else they could face civil, or even criminal prosecution failing to do so.

This is why Argentinian digital rights organization, Fundación Via Libre has launched a campaign to fight back against this destructive term extension. They sent a letter to Argentinian lawmakers earlier this week, urging them to conduct proper, public-interest impact assessment and open it to public debate before moving forward with a bill that would have such sweeping impacts on the cultural commons. Now, EFF is one of 38 digital rights and access to knowledge groups urging Argentinian lawmakers to drop this proposal. The letter states (translated from Spanish):

Among the entities affected by the draft bill are museums, archives, and public libraries, as more and more of them digitize their collections and make them publicly available on the Internet. Projects such as the National Library’s Trapalanda digital library, and digitization efforts made by the General Archives of the Nation of Argentina will be severely affected by the measure, and will lead to the removal of large amounts of photographs that are openly and publicly accessible on the Internet.

Another harmed initiative would be Wikipedia, the online and community non-profit encyclopedia which currently provides free and open access to knowledge. Thousands of photographs that illustrates Argentina’s encyclopedic articles of great importance would be eliminated, critically affecting users who use Wikipedia every day for access to knowledge and learning.This is part of a long disturbing trend towards lengthening the international “norm” of copyright lengths to life of the author plus 70 years—two decades beyond what is required by international law as established by the Berne Convention. The Berne Convention requires life plus 50 years of protection for most works, but for photographs only 25 years from when they were taken, in a rare recognition of the qualitative differences between different classes of copyright work. Admittedly, this points towards an obligation to extend the term of protection for photographs—but only for 5 years, not 120.

This bill comes as we fight 20-year copyright term extensions in six of the 12 countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), where Hollywood has taken advantage of opaque trade negotiations to lengthen and ratchet up restrictions on cultural works behind closed doors.

Big publishers are working with policymakers to make these extensions seem like an imperative that must not be questioned for the sake of “protecting” artists’ interests. But it’s critical that we push back against this seeming inevitability that more and more culture will become locked up behind longer, ever more extreme restrictions.

If you’re in Argentina, support Fundación Vía Libre and their fight against excessive terms on photography.

If you’re in the United States, or in the handful of other TPP nations that is under threat from copyright term extensions, visit our TPP Copyright Trap page to find out how you can take action.

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Cuando soldaditos formoseños frenaron a los Montoneros

4 octubre, 2015

http://www.infobae.com/2015/10/04/1759869-cuando-los-soldaditos-formosenos-frenaron-montoneros

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Sep 29, 2015

29 septiembre, 2015

GONE .. Argentine General Mario Menéndez

What is omitted is his butchery in the Cordoba Region during the dirty war.. An evil ruthless man..

Mario Menéndez

Menéndez in the Falklands during the Argentine occupation in 1982
Epa

Menéndez in the Falklands during the Argentine occupation in 1982 Epa
Last updated at 12:01AM, September 26 2015 – Times (UK)
Army officer who was briefly governor of the Falklands after the Argentine invasion in 1982 but failed to mount an effective defence against British forces
Described by President Leopoldo Galtieri as “the best general in the Argentine army”, Mario Menéndez probably owed his appointment as governor of the Malvinas, otherwise known as the Falklands Islands, more to his record of providing his head of state with advice that he wished to hear than either to his military experience or his judgment.
Brigadier-General Menéndez arrived at Port Stanley, the capital, five days after the occupation of the Falklands. One of his tasks was to meet the British governor, Sir Rex Hunt, who was wearing a formal uniform, including a plumed hat, and arrived at the town hall in his offical car, which was a converted London taxi. “There was this rather miserable little general, sallow faced, coming towards me with a fixed smile,” said Hunt, who was ordered to leave the islands.
Menéndez was not expecting to have to fight for the retention of the islands and, it is said, his confidence never recovered from hearing that a British task force had left for the South Atlantic.
By his own account, Menéndez was previously a member of the military committee in Buenos Aires, reporting weekly to Galtieri on foreign policy, military readiness, training and the budget. With the country’s economy in decline, Menéndez would have needed flashes of imagination almost every week to keep the president happy, but seemingly not enough to dissuade the military junta from deciding on the classic political trick of generating a foreign policy crisis to distract attention from troubles at home.
His two commanders on the Falklands were senior to him as brigadier-generals, so his orders would have been subject to debate before compliance. Much of his 11,300-man force were conscripts with scant appetite for battle. The defensive campaign he conducted reflected nagging doubts about whether his men would stand and fight. Yet, when the crunch came, they fought competently and resolutely at Goose Green against 2nd Battalion The Parachute Regiment and initially against all of Major-General Jeremy Moore’s force in defence of Stanley. Throughout the campaign, Menéndez’s uncertainty dissipated what resolve his subordinate commanders were able to muster in terms of offensive spirit.
As a graduate of the national military college, Menéndez would have recognised that an amphibious force is vulnerable during a landing and in its immediate aftermath. In tune with military pundits worldwide, he expected the British landing to be close to Port Stanley. When the belt of seaweed off the coast precluded that option, and the task force began to disembark at San Carlos Water, 50 miles away on the opposite coast, he at first dismissed the report as a diversion intended to draw his forces away from the capital.
The capture of Goose Green by the 2nd Parachute Battalion at the end of May left him and his immediate staff in a despondent mood. In one of the few initiatives taken during the campaign, Menéndez assembled his staff to issue orders “to plant a screen from north to south of East Falkland to ambush the British troops as they advanced towards Stanley and cut their line of communications behind them”.
He had some tough, experienced special forces capable of putting at least part of such a plan into practice, but not enough; one group was ambushed by an SAS patrol on Mount Kent and another by the Royal Marines Arctic Warfare detachment on Mount Simon. Worse, as the bulk of the air force’s ground-attack aircraft were based on the mainland, and therefore not under his command, they sought targets of opportunity rather than systematically attacking 3 Commando during its long march eastwards. From the moment that the two British brigades were ashore, Menéndez knew he faced defeat. The proportion of professional soldiers in his force was just too small for it to prevail against the professional forces the UK had fielded against him. His aim then was to hold out for long enough that he could claim “surrender with honour”.In the first week of June, he was urged by Galtieri to mount a counteroffensive against the Fitzroy Settlement at Bluff Cove to the southwest of Stanley, which was occupied by troops of the British 5th Infantry Brigade. Such a venture might possibly have delayed the outcome, but, yet again, Menéndez hesitated, and his two subordinate brigadiers began plotting to remove him.
Such was his lack of confidence in the ability of his troops to hold the range of hills surrounding the capital that he even considered withdrawing to the airport, but he was dissuaded from doing so. By then, his troops were cold, hungry and demoralised. Despite the well-prepared positions in the hills, their minefields, and the observation points from which their medium guns could fire, the Argentine defence of Stanley was neither sufficiently sustained nor resolute to allow any claim to be made of “surrender with honour”. They were beaten by better men, who were better led and highly motivated.
Mario Benjamin Menéndez was born in Buenos Aires into a military family. An uncle had led an unsuccessful coup against President Juan Perón in 1951, while his cousin, Luciano, was another politically inspired general who became involved in the so-called “Dirty War” against domestic insurgents in the late 1970s and early 1980s. After graduation from military college, he made steady progress, commanding the 5th Infantry Brigade in Operation Independencia, a counter-insurgency campaign against Trotskyist guerrillas operating in Tucumán province, and later commanded the 6th Mountain Brigade in Neuquén province.
A month after the surrender of Port Stanley, he was stripped of all military authority and in October 1983 arrested and confined to a base away from Buenos Aires. According to his mother, Hilda Villarino de Menéndez, his arrest was due to a book he had published criticising the Falklands campaign; he said the idea for the invasion came from the Argentine navy. Almost 30 years later, he was also charged with human rights abuses committed before the Falklands campaign.
He is survived by his wife, Susana, whom he married in 1955; their son, also named Mario, who followed him into the army and served with him during the Falklands campaign; and two daughters. Marta Julia is a nursery teacher and Maria José is an employee of the Bank of Italy in Buenos Aires.
Tired, disillusioned and discredited, Menéndez spent his 30-year retirement reflecting on the penalties of being described by the disgraced former president, Galtieri, as the country’s best general, which was certainly not an assessment borne out by his performance during the Falklands conflict of 1982.
Brigadier-General Mario Menéndez, Argentine army officer, was born on April 3, 1930. He died on September 18, 2015, aged 85

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