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UN MISTERIO PARCIAL

23 octubre, 2014

Originalmente publicado en ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA:

— El jue 9-dic-10, Rodolfo_Vila escribió: De: Rodolfo_Vila Asunto: Fw: BORGES Y EL ARGENTINISMO UN MISTERIO PARCIAL.doc Para: “Hugo Carassai” Fecha: jueves, 9 de diciembre de 2010, 10:45

                                                                             UN MISTERIO PARCIAL

 “Admitida una función compensatoria del tango, queda un breve misterio por resolver. La independencia de América fue, en buena parte, una empresa argentina; hombres argentinos pelearon en lejanas batallas del continente, en Maipú, en Ayacucho, en Junín. Después hubo las guerras civiles, la guerra del Brasil, las campañas contra Rosas y Urquiza, la guerra del Paraguay, la guerra de frontera contra los indios…Nuestro pasado militar es copioso, pero lo indiscutible es que el argentino, en trance de pensarse valiente, no se identifica con él (pese a la preferencia que en las escuelas se da al estudio de la historia) sino con las vastas figuras genéricas del Gaucho y del Compadre. Si no me engaño, este rasgo instintivo y paradójico…

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ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 22, 2014

23 octubre, 2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1. HEDGE FUNDS EXPOSE ARGENTINA TO $14 BILLION PAYMENT RISK (Bloomberg News)
By Katia Porzecanski
Oct 23, 2014
The relative calm in Argentina’s debt markets since its default in July may be shattered as the risk increases that holders of $14 billion in bonds will ask for their money back immediately, according to Bank of America Corp.
After a grace period expires next week, investors in Argentina’s so-called Par bonds can demand full repayment of principal originally due in 2038 as well as interest, according to the debt contracts. The out performance of the Pars, which have returned 1.2 percent in the past three months versus losses of 5.5 percent for notes due 2033, is a signal to Bank of America that more bondholders are considering acceleration.
While Argentina’s unwillingness to negotiate with unpaid creditors from its 2001 default pushed the country into its current predicament, bondholders have thus far refrained from asserting their own claims and escalating the crisis. That may now change. Because the Pars are Argentina’s lowest-priced bonds and trade at 53.4 cents on the dollar, speculators such as distressed debt funds have an incentive to organize and try to force the nation into repaying in full.
“The par bonds have outperformed because distressed hedge funds have been the primary buyers, some of whom see the acceleration option as having some value,” Jane Brauer, a New York-based strategist at Bank of America, said by phone.
‘Derail Negotiations’

 

While Argentina deposited $161 million to pay interest on the dollar-denominated Pars last month, a U.S. court order prevents bondholders from getting their money until the government resolves its more-than-decade-old unpaid debts with creditors who refused to participate in 2005 and 2010 restructurings.

 

That ruling caused the nation to default for the second time in 13 years in July. The interest payments, which Argentina says it has been paying all along, are sitting in a state-run bank in Buenos Aires.

 

 
Jesica Rey, an economy ministry spokeswoman, didn’t respond to messages seeking comment on the risk of acceleration.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner hasn’t said whether she’d be willing to negotiate with the holdouts in January when a key bond clause expires.
The government cited the so-called Rufo clause as a reason why they can’t pay holdouts led by billionaire hedge-fund manager Paul Singer more than the 30 cents on the dollar that restructured bondholders received.
Discount Bonds
Cross-default provisions that govern the Pars have been in place since Argentina’s so-called Discount bonds due 2033 went unpaid in July. After Oct. 30, the Pars will also be in default in their own right, which some investors may be waiting for, according to Brauer. She also said there was “extensive” interest in the risk of acceleration among investors at a Bank of America conference held during the International Monetary Fund’s meetings in Washington this month.
“Investors may accelerate prematurely and derail potential negotiations before they start,” Brauer said.
As South America’s second-biggest economy slows and reserves hover close to eight-year lows, the government risks losing its ability to pay anybody and having to renegotiate all of its debt obligations.
The Par bonds are the cheapest of Argentina’s overseas bonds because they pay the lowest interest rate. The dollar notes pay 2.5 percent annually, while the euro-denominated bonds pay 2.26 percent. Yen-denominated pars, with only about $205 million outstanding, pay annual interest of 0.45 percent.
Resume Payments
Tom Mullen, a partner at Westport, Connecticut-based hedge fund TWM Capital LP, says it’s too costly and logistically challenging for investors to try to seek full repayment before January, when the Rufo clause expires and it will be possible for Fernandez to settle with the holdouts and resume bond payments.
“From a practical standpoint, trying to get bondholders organized in any of these bonds — and we’ve tried it before — is very, very time consuming,” Mullen, who oversees about $200 million, said by telephone from La Jolla, California.
Alejo Czerwonko, a New York-based strategist at UBS Wealth Management’s chief investment office, says it doesn’t make sense for his firm to accelerate their par bond holdings.
“It is highly unclear what terms those who accelerate will be offered, and it makes exiting this holdout mess even more complicated,” he said.
With about $5.4 billion outstanding, the dollar-denominated Pars require holders of 25 percent, or $1.4 billion, to demand immediate payment of principal and past due interest. It will take holders of $2.2 billion of bonds to trigger an acceleration of $8.9 billion of euro-denominated Par securities, which cost 48.4 cents on the dollar.
“It would not be a massive surprise” for holders to opt for acceleration, Fernando Losada, a Latin America economist at AllianceBernstein LP, said by e-mail. He declined to comment on the firm’s holdings of Pars.
2. ARGENTINA APPEAL OF BNY RULING IN BONDS CASE IS DISMISSED (Bloomberg News)
By Bob Van Voris
Oct 22, 2014
Argentina’s appeal of a ruling that Bank of New York Mellon Corp. acted properly when it refused to pass along a $539 million payment to holders of the nation’s sovereign debt was thrown out.
Argentina made the payment into a BNY Mellon account in June, in an attempt to pay holders of its restructured debt without also paying $1.5 billion to a group of hedge funds holding the country’s defaulted bonds, as a judge had ordered. BNY Mellon held onto the payment, triggering a default when bondholders weren’t paid by July 30.
U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa, who blocked Argentina’s payment, ruled in August that the country had violated his order, that BNY Mellon’s actions were proper and that the bank couldn’t be held liable for refusing to forward the money to bondholders.
The U.S. Court of Appeals in New York today threw out Argentina’s challenge to Griesa’s decision, ruling that the judge’s August order didn’t modify the earlier order and couldn’t be appealed.
Argentina defaulted on a record $95 billion in 2001, roiling international markets and limiting the nation’s access to credit. Argentina exchanged 92 percent of its defaulted bonds for new ones, at a sharp discount, in restructurings in 2005 and 2010. A group led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. hedge fund is trying to receive full payment for their defaulted bonds.
Griesa on Sept. 29 found Argentina in contempt of court for attempting to dump BNY Mellon as bond trustee in a plan to pay bondholders outside his court’s jurisdiction. The defaulted bondholders have asked him to fine Argentina $50,000 per day until it complies. Griesa hasn’t said when he will rule.
The case is NML Capital Ltd. v. Republic of Argentina, 08-cv-06978, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
3. U.S. COURT TOSSES ARGENTINA APPEAL OVER FUNDS HELD BY BNY MELLON (Reuters News)
By Nate Raymond
Wed, Oct 22 2014
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A U.S. appeals court on Wednesday dismissed Argentina’s appeal of an order directing Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to hold onto $539 million the country deposited for its restructured bondholders.
The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York in a brief order said it lacked jurisdiction over the appeal as the August ruling by U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa was a clarification rather than modification of his earlier rulings on the matter.
Griesa had ruled that the $539 million that Argentina deposited in June with BNY Mellon for bondholders who participated in two sovereign debt restructurings was “illegal,” and in an August order, directed the bank to retain the funds.
The judge, in his August ruling, also said BNY Mellon’s retention of the funds would not violate his prior orders or subject it to liability.
A spokesman for BNY Mellon did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did a U.S. lawyer for Argentina.
Argentina defaulted in July after refusing to honor court orders to pay $1.33 billion plus interest to U.S. hedge funds suing for full payment on bonds following its earlier 2002 default.
The hedge funds, led by NML and Aurelius Capital Management, had spurned the country’s 2005 and 2010 debt restructurings, which resulted in exchanges for about 92 percent of the country’s defaulted debt.
Investors who exchanged bonds were paid less than 30 cents on the dollar.
The country’s most recent default came after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear Argentina’s appeal of a ruling that it must pay the holdouts when it paid holders of the exchanged bonds.
Griesa subsequently blocked BNY Mellon from processing a $539 million interest payment on what the country says is over $28 billion in debt.
The order sent Argentina on a course to default after no settlement was reached.
A later order, the one Argentina appealed, set out BNY Mellon’s responsibilities to hold onto the money.
BNY Mellon, which filed a brief in the case, said Griesa’s order helped protect it from liability, as “nearly every economic stakeholder in this litigation has either sued or threatened to sue” the bank, including Argentina.
4. ARGENTINA’S SEPTEMBER TRADE BALANCE $404 MLN VS $716 MLN (Dow Jones Institutional News)
22 October 2014
BUENOS AIRES–Argentina’s trade surplus fell almost 44% on the year to $404 million in September as exports of commodities, fuel and manufactured goods slipped from the same month a year ago.
Exports fell 12% on the year, mostly because Argentina sold fewer goods abroad but also because the value of those goods was down.
In September 2013, Argentina posted a $716 million trade surplus. The surplus totaled $5.79 billion in the first nine months of 2014, down from $6.61 billion a year earlier, the national statistics agency, Indec, said on Wednesday.
Locked out of global credit markets, Argentina’s government has become exceptionally dependent on its trade surplus to supply it with U.S. dollars needed to pay down its debt and fund imports of fuel and other goods. As the surplus declines, the government faces increasing pressure to obtain dollars from other sources. In recent years, it has made it harder for businesses to import goods while also severely limiting the sale of dollars to people and companies.
Argentina imported 12% fewer goods in September than a year ago, largely because people bought fewer vehicles. Passenger vehicle imports plunged 45% on the year.
Argentina’s economy is mired in recession and weaker demand for imported cars has taken a toll on Brazil, which produces many of the vehicles and auto parts imported into Argentina.
The lower trade surplus does not bode well for Argentina’s central bank, which has seen its international currency reserves dwindle to $27.3 billion from $52.6 billion in early 2011. Those reserves are key for paying down Argentina’s debt, paying for critical fuel imports and funding social programs.
5. ARGENTINA APPROVES EXPORT OF MORE 2013-14 WHEAT, CORN (Reuters News)
23 October 2014
BUENOS AIRES, Oct 22 (Reuters) – Grains powerhouse Argentina has authorized the export of an additional 400,000 tonnes of wheat and 500,000 tonnes of corn from the 2013-14 season, the Economy Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.
Argentina restricts exports of wheat and corn to ensure ample and cheap domestic food supplies.
Growers say the curbs keep them guessing about how much wheat or corn to plant and some have shifted to alternative crops that can be exported freely. Such as soy and beer barley.
Two sources in the agricultural sector had told Reuters earlier on Wednesday that the government would approve new export permits for wheat this week, on top of the 1.5 million tonnes already authorized.
“This week they will authorize some from the old season and next week some of the new,” a source familiar with the situation said. “Some 400,000 (tonnes) of the old (2013-14) season and 2 million of the new (2014-15) one.”
President Cristina Fernandez has increased the government’s role in Latin America’s third-biggest economy, often putting her at odds with farmers who say her policies are chasing off investment and keeping the country from meeting its full agricultural potential at a time of rising world food demand.
6. ARGENTINA’S LOWER HOUSE LIKELY TO VOTE ON OIL REFORM OCTOBER 29 (Platts Commodity News)
By Charles Newbery
22 October 2014
Buenos Aires (Platts)–22Oct2014/1019 am EDT/1419 GMT   The lower house of Argentina’s National Congress is poised to approve in committee a reform of the oil sector this week, sending the bill for a floor vote October 29, a source in the Energy and Fuels Committee said Wednesday.
“The bill will almost certainly go to the floor for a vote next week,” the source said on the condition of not being named.
He said there will be a final round of speakers to appear Thursday before the Chamber of Deputies’ committees on energy, budget and treasury, and constitutional affairs. After that, the bill will be sent to the floor, the source said.
In a first round of speakers Tuesday, Planning Minister Julio De Vido, the country’s chief energy strategist, defended the bill, which has already gained approval in the Senate.
“This bill is a fundamental tool for achieving hydrocarbon sovereignty,” he said, according to a transcript of his comments.
For self-sufficiency to happen, Argentina needs to attract investment to develop its huge shale resources as well as offshore resources to reduce energy imports, now equivalent to 10% of total imports, De Vido said.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s administration drafted the bill to make it easier for companies to develop conventional, offshore and shale resources to help turn around a 20% decline in oil and gas production over the past decade.
The decline has pushed the energy trade deficit to a government-estimated $10 billion this year on falling exports and rising imports of crude, diesel, fuel oil and gas. This is chipping away at the overall trade surplus, cutting dollar supplies and widening a fiscal deficit now at 4% of GDP.
The reform is designed to even out tax rates on exploration and production, scrap some taxes, extend field licenses, provide fiscal incentives and nationalize the tender process for bidding rounds. Licenses, for example, would be extended to 35 years for shale development and offshore to 30 years, up from a current 25 years for conventional fields. Oil companies would be allowed to export up to 20% of their production from approved projects without paying the 33% withholding tax after the fifth year. Exploration permits also would be quicker to obtain on projects of more than $250 million.
Argentina needs investment to put into production shale resources estimated by the US Energy Information Administration as among the world’s largest.
Most of the focus is on Vaca Muerta, a southwestern play where YPF in partnership with Chevron is producing the first shale oil and gas, at 25,000 b/d of oil equivalent, from the Loma Campana block.
De Vido said that with three projects like Loma Campana, Argentina could achieve an energy trade balance while with five such projects it can “return to exporting energy.”
He said more than $10 billion is being invested in six new pilot projects for shale development in Neuquen, where Vaca Muerta is located.
He said these include a partnership between YPF and Malaysia’s Petronas in La Amarga Chica, Germany’s Wintershall in Aguada Federal in partnership with Neuquen’s state-owned Gas y Petroleo del Neuquen, as well as Shell in Sierras Blancas and Cruz Lorena, Total in Aguada Pichana and ExxonMobil in Bajo del Choy.
7. ARGENTINA CUTS OIL EXPORT TAXES TO SPUR SHALE INVESTMENT (Platts Commodity News)
By Charles Newbery
22 October 2014
(Platts)–22Oct2014/1113 am EDT/1513 GMT  Argentina’s Economy Ministry said Wednesday it has authorized a reduction in export taxes on oil and derivatives to encourage investment in developing the country’s large shale resources even if international crude prices drop.
The ministry said the 33% withholding tax on exports will drop to 13% if the international price of oil drops below $80/barrel, to 11.5% if the price drops below $75/b and to 10% if less than $70/b.
The cuts will protect exporters from fluctuations in international prices that could deter investment, the ministry said in a resolution in the Official Bulletin, the government’s newspaper of record.
The measure is designed “to ensure the current profit levels of the sector, with the aim of maintaining investment targets aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in hydrocarbons,” the ministry added.
Argentina needs capital to develop its huge shale resources to help turn around a 20% decline in oil and gas production over the past decade that has pushed up energy imports to a government-estimated $10 billion this year, or about 10% of total imports.
A main focus for the turnaround is on developing Vaca Muerta, a southwestern play where YPF, in partnership with Chevron, is producing the first shale oil and gas, at 25,000 b/d of oil equivalent.
Planning Minister Julio De Vido, the country’s chief energy strategist, said Tuesday that more than $10 billion has been earmarked for six pilot production projects in Vaca Muerta by YPF in partnership with Malaysia’s Petronas, as well as others to be carried out by ExxonMobil, Shell, Total and Wintershall.
Even so, YPF CEO Miguel Galuccio warned Tuesday in an address before Congress that if the price of oil is $84-85/b, then profits will be “marginal” for output from Vaca Muerta.
West Texas Intermediate, the international reference price followed in Argentina, has dropped more than 20% to $83/b from a $110/b high in June.
Galuccio said that at $84-85/b or lower, YPF and other companies will need to pursue economies of scale to “reduce the costs of production.”
8. BRAZIL, ARGENTINA TO STRENGHTEN AEROSPACE COOPERATION; TALK GRIPEN DEAL (UPI)
By Richard Tomkins
October 22, 2014
GAVIAO PEIXOTO, Brazil, Oct. 22 (UPI) –GAVIAO PEIXOTO, Brazil, Oct. 22 (UPI) — Brazil and Argentina are to begin negotiations over the purchase of Swedish-designed Gripen fighters to be manufactured in Brazil.
The decision was announced in Brazil by visiting Argentine Defense Minister Agustín Rossi.
Brazil’s Ministry of Defense said the talks over the possible purchase of 24 Brazil-produced Gripens would include not only the conditions of purchase but also Argentina’s participation in the production of the Saab-designed aircraft.
“Our willingness to cooperate with Argentina, our neighbor and ally, is total,” said Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim.
Brazil and Argentina already cooperate on a number of defense projects and during the Argentine minster’s visit signed a new cooperative agreement to strengthen ties between their defense industries.
Brazil is expected to sign an agreement with Sweden later this year for the procurement of as many as three dozen Saab-made Gripen multi-role fighter aircraft, with provisions for technology transfer and local manufacturing.
9. SAAB CLOSES IN ON GRIPEN DEAL IN BRAZIL OPENING UP LATIN AMERICA (BusinessWeek)
By Chris Jasper and Niclas Rolander
October 23, 2014
Saab AB (SAABB) said it’s close to sealing a contract with Brazil that will secure 36 export orders valued at $4.5 billion for the Swedish company’s Gripen jet-fighter while establishing production in the South American country.
Negotiations on the deal are moving forward according to plan and the ambition is to reach an agreement “in the near future,” Saab said today in a statement.
Saab signed a memorandum of understanding with Embraer SA (EMBR3) in July granting the Brazilian planemaker a leading role in Gripen production tied to the signing of an order. According to that deal, Embraer will share joint responsibility for developing a two-seat version of the latest upgrade of the jet and lead marketing efforts to sell it in Latin America.
Partnering with Brazil could give the Gripen a new lease of life after the program suffered a blow in May when Swiss voters rejected a 3.1 billion franc ($3.3 billion) order for 22 fighters that had been awarded 2 1/2 years previously.
Saab, where third-quarter operating profit of 258 million kronor ($35 million) fell short of the 300 million kronor expected by analysts, is pushing the Gripen against rival offerings from companies including Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT:US), the No. 1 defense contractor, just as tighter military spending makes U.S. and European orders harder to come by.
Argentina Interest
A bridgehead in Brazil, where local firms may build as much as 80 percent of the Gripen E model and take on the bulk of development on the two-seat Gripen F, could open up sales to markets where defense budgets are under less pressure. A carrier version of the plane may be an option for Brazil, with Argentina, Ecuador and Mexico among possible export targets.
Brazil is already poised to discuss a possible deal to sell the Gripen to Argentina as part of a plan to boost aerospace cooperation, the defense ministry said this week, adding that terms could include some production component for its neighbor. Brazil’s own contract should be signed by December, it said.
Saab was chosen to fill Brazil’s F-X2 fighter requirement last December, fending off the Boeing Co. (BA:US) F/A-18 Super Hornet after allegations that the U.S. spied on President Dilma Rousseff. Paris-based Dassault Aviation SA (AM)’s Rafale also lost.
Saab said today it’s working on efficient integration of the marine defense unit of Germany’s ThyssenKrupp AG after the 340 million kronor purchase closed in July.
The deal brings the Karlskrona shipyard 200 miles south of Stockholm under Swedish control as the country seeks to upgrade submarine capabilities amid increasing tension with Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Saab already has Swedish contracts worth 11.7 billion kronor for two new subs and upgrades of two more.
The company is also exploring submarine export deals with a “handful” of countries including Australia, Chief Executive Officer Hakan Buskhe said in a phone interview.
Sweden said yesterday it’s hunting a suspected foreign vessel in its waters amid local speculation that the alert concerns a Russian submarine. The search follows airspace violations by Russian jets in Sweden, Finland and Baltic states.
Saab said that after years of declines there’s now “an ongoing discussion” about boosting defense budgets, especially in the European Union, though no decisions have been made.
10. THE EIGHTH DEFAULT OF ARGENTINA: FROM INDEPENDENCE TO ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT (ValueWalk Online)
By Confluence Investment Management
October 22, 2014
The Eighth Default of Argentina by Kaisa Stucke, Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management
Very few countries have seen as spectacular of a decline in its economic standing over the past 100 years as Argentina has.  The country started the 20th century as one of the richest in the world, but has fallen behind as a result of its turbulent political history and inconsistent economic policies.
Argentina has been in the international headlines recently due to its sovereign debt default.  This default is the eighth default in the history of the country.  Additionally, Argentina is facing capital flight, rising inflation and dwindling dollar reserves.  The government’s response has been to tighten its grip on the economy, instituting trade barriers to protect its domestic industries and restricting capital outflows to support its official currency peg.  While this is a serious issue for Argentina and a possible concern in the general trade policy for Latin America, we do not believe that this situation will persist in the rest of emerging markets.  More than anything, Argentina’s extensive government interventions and resulting economic calamities might serve as a cautionary tale for other countries that may be considering deglobalization.
This week we will look at Argentina, its long history of economic booms and busts, its political background, and its extensive chronicle of sovereign debt defaults.  As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
Brief History
Before Europeans reached the Argentine area of South America, the region was scarcely populated.  Spain colonized the country in the 16th century and instituted a strong central government.  A sizeable railroad system was built under Spanish rule, which helped transport the country’s agricultural products to the coast for shipping.  The economy grew via strong export expansion.  As the Spanish kingdom weakened due to constant wars in Europe and abroad, a military junta took control of Argentina.  The country declared its independence in 1816 and a bitter internal struggle between different military factions ensued.
Argentine economic growth in the 19th century was primarily driven by the development of large farms.  The fertile land and availability of cheap labor allowed the country to produce and export large amounts of grain and meat products.  Additionally, Argentina is extremely commodity reliant.  The country is rich in resources, but has failed to invest sufficiently in educating its
population, which is necessary in order to make its manufacturing internationally competitive.  Argentina became the “land of opportunity” as it was a destination for many European immigrants.  Prior to WWI, Argentina was the 10th wealthiest country in the world in terms of GDP per capita.
WWI took a large toll on the economy and the Great Depression in the U.S. further weakened the country as global economic growth slowed, leading to increased unemployment and social unrest in Argentina.  This also marked the beginning of a long period of political instability in the country.  The military took power in 1930, instituting import substitution to achieve self-sufficiency, turning the country insular.  For the rest of the 20th century, 14 generals and 11 elected civilian presidents would run the country.  In fact, between 1930 and 1983, presidents averaged only two years in office.
In 1952, Juan Domingo Peron was elected president on the back of increasing social fragmentation.  Peron promised to redistribute wealth and power to the large urban working class, and away from the bourgeois land owners.  Peron nationalized several private and foreign-owned companies, leading to large capital outflows as foreign investors became increasingly nervous.  Capital flight, combined with falling commodity prices, caused severe economic turmoil, while labor and trade restrictions pushed inflation to 40% annually.  Peron kept social unrest at bay through increased social spending.  In many ways, Peron shaped the economic development path that Argentina has followed.  The economic calamity and the death of Peron’s wildly popular first lady, Eva “Evita” Peron, caused extensive discontent and, once again, the military took over.  A series of military and civilian presidents followed, but the economy suffered as inflation reached record highs and unemployment surged.
The 1990s were a period of free trade and economic growth for Argentina under a more economically liberal president, Carlos Menem.  The country cultivated foreign investment, slashed trade barriers and tariffs, and privatized state enterprises.  It also stabilized its currency, the peso, by pegging it to the U.S. dollar via a currency board.[1]  This currency peg stabilized the economy and eased inflation, leading to large capital inflows into the country.  However, corruption was rampant.  For example, in 1989, only 30,000 out of 30 million Argentinians paid any income taxes.
The 1997-99 Asian financial crisis affected Argentina as international capital flows reversed, with investors pulling funds out of emerging markets at a rapid pace.  The currency board proved unsustainable as growth faltered.  This led to the government’s inability to make payments on its loans in 2001, leading to the world’s largest sovereign debt default of $100 bn.
In terms of trade, throughout its history Argentina has been out of sync with the rest of the world.  Argentina supported free trade at the beginning of the 20th century, when the rest of the world was insular.  By the time world trade started to open up, the military had taken control of Argentina and established trade restrictions.  Argentina has also relied on foreign investment for growth, which has often exaggerated economic volatility.
Default History
Argentina has defaulted on its international debt seven times and on its domestic debt five times since its independence in 1816.  The first sovereign default came only 11 years after independence.  Argentina, along with other Latin American countries, issued bonds in London to fund its transition to independence.  When the Bank of England hiked its interest rates in 1825, Argentina struggled to make payments on the loans and defaulted in 1827.  The country did not make payments on its defaulted bonds until 1857.
Later in the 19th century, Argentina had borrowed heavily to build infrastructure, and to transform its capital, Buenos Aires, to the “Paris of South America.”  Rising commodity prices and borrowing led the country into a speculative financial bubble, which ended in a yet another default.
In 1956, the country was at the brink of default after the populist president Peron was ousted by the military.  Argentina was able to avoid a new default by reaching a restructuring deal.  A portion of these bonds were paid back as late as this year.  Another default followed in 1989 in the midst of emerging market bond calamities.
In 2001, Argentina defaulted again.  The roots of this default lay in the heavy borrowing during the 1990s to finance the unsustainable fiscal deficits that the government had been running for several years.  Argentina desperately wanted to avoid another default, so it initiated a debt exchange.  To avoid a default, the exchange had to be voluntary.  During two rounds of exchanges, the government offered untenable coupon payment rates to attract more bond holders to exchange their holdings.  The debt exchange failed as the government was pushed further into insolvency.
Current Default
On July 30th, 2014, Argentina entered into default again when it failed to make payments on its bonds.  The 2001 default sowed the seeds for the current default.  Argentina renegotiated the terms of its portfolio when it defaulted in 2001.  Most of its creditors exchanged their defaulted debt in the two restructurings that took place in 2005 and 2010.  However, there were a few investors who saw an arbitrage opportunity in buying up the defaulted debt.  Since the debt was issued under New York legal framework, these investors decided to pursue the full principal amount, plus interest, via American courts. These bond holders, called “the holdouts,” were led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management.
Argentina was held in contempt of court by a New York judge, ruling that Argentina could not make bond payments on the restructured bonds without paying all the holdouts first.  Furthermore, any U.S. financial institution that would help Argentina make bond payments on these bonds would also be in violation of this court order.  A bond payment was due on July 30th, for which Argentina transferred money to its U.S. financial intermediary, Bank of New York Mellon.  However, the court order blocked the funds from being transferred to the bond holders, and since the country did not make a payment, it entered default.
Argentina’s president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner claims that the default is immaterial.  Argentina, in general, is ignoring the ruling, with politicians saying that the ruling is “baseless” and that it would not have any “practical effect” on the economy.  It is true that the country had already been effectively cut off from international borrowing after its 2001 default, so the current default does not have any immediate effect on the country.  As the frequent default history shows, Argentina is used to operating in the state of default.  However, the longer the default goes, the harder it will be for the country to grow.  The country’s foreign reserves are dwindling, and maintaining its exchange rate peg is likely to become impossible, leading to devaluation.  The boost the country got from the decade of rising commodity prices is unlikely to be repeated.  Thus, the country needs access to international debt markets to grow.
The terms that keep Argentina from making any payments on its defaulted bonds will expire in the beginning of 2015, at which time Argentina can enter into negotiations with its bondholders.  The fear is that before reaching an agreement, the country would have to print money to finance its deficit, spurring inflation and deepening the economic contraction already seen this year.
Ramifications
Simon Kuznets, a Nobel-laureate economist, remarked, “There are four kinds of countries in the world: developed countries, undeveloped countries, Japan and Argentina.”  Argentina does indeed have its own kind of a mess to deal with, and serves as a cautionary tale for countries that are considering government intervention in their economies.
The global economic slow-down is affecting all emerging markets.  The Argentine economy has suffered as end-market demand for its commodities has slowed, but also due to the large capital outflows following its interventionist policies and defaults.  The recent Argentine default was expected, and has not had a significant impact on Latin America or emerging markets in general.
One of the more immediate market ramifications is a possibility of more volatility in the soybean market.  Argentina is the third largest soybean producer in the world.  Due to the most recent devaluation of the peso and the concern that another devaluation may be forthcoming, Argentine farmers have withheld soybean sales.  This is significant for Argentina, since falling exports and capital outflows have left the government with too few dollars.  Too few dollars are a problem, since the government needs dollars to pay interest on dollar-denominated bonds and to support the official exchange rate.  Given that agricultural products are the largest export product for the country and the government needs dollars, it is possible that the government could force the farmers to sell their soy in the international markets.  If this happens, the already depressed soybean prices could be pressured further by the increased supply.
Another more immediate outcome could be a further anti-globalization of all of Latin America.  Argentina is the second largest economy of the Latin American trade union Mercosur.  Mercosur generally governs the trade agreements of its members, including free trade between its member countries, while regulating trade agreements with other countries.  Since a new trade agreement or an amendment requires approval by all member states, it is likely that Argentina’s desire to protect its industries with increasing trade barriers could also reduce trade for the rest of the Mercosur members.  We have already seen a new Brazil-backed trade agreement with the EU blocked by Argentina.
Argentina’s inflation is likely to stay high; it is estimated to come in at 40%.  If the country establishes further trade restrictions or capital controls, inflation will likely increase.  Unemployment has picked up.  The current government has avoided civil unrest via government spending and social welfare programs, but with the government’s reserves dwindling, the continuation of these programs is uncertain.  If social spending is cut, increasing inflation and high unemployment are likely to lead to more social disorder.
Kaisa Stucke and Bill O’Grady
October 20, 2014
This report was prepared by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management LLC and reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
[1] A currency board is a monetary authority which is required to maintain a fixed exchange rate with a foreign currency. This policy objective requires the conventional objectives of a central bank to be subordinated to the exchange rate target.
Confluence Investment Management LLC
Confluence Investment Management LLC is an independent, SEC Registered Investment Advisor located in St. Louis, Missouri.  The firm provides professional portfolio management and advisory services to institutional and individual clients.  Confluence’s investment philosophy is based upon independent, fundamental research that integrates the firm’s evaluation of market cycles, macroeconomics and geopolitical analysis with a value-driven, fundamental company-specific approach.  The firm’s portfolio management philosophy begins by assessing risk, and follows through by positioning client portfolios to achieve stated income and growth objectives.  The Confluence team is comprised of experienced investment professionals who are dedicated to an exceptional level of client service and communication.
11. GOLF PRODIGY BEGAN BY SWINGING A BROKEN BROOMSTICK (The Washington Post)
By Paul Byrne
October 22, 2014
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Dylan Reales started learning to play golf by swinging a broken broomstick at fruit and vegetables discarded at a temporary market in front of his house in one of the poorest neighborhoods in Buenos Aires.
Tomatoes, onions and even crushed cigarette packages were his first make-believe golf balls.
“I began hitting everything I came across on the street,” he said.
He’s only 11, but’s he’s progressed in giant steps in just a few years, establishing himself as a regular on the local junior golf circuit.
Dylan still lives in a shantytown known as Villa 31, where the game is unheard of and often confused with polo — another sport largely restricted to the wealthy in Argentina.
He draws attention when he pushes his three-wheeled golf cart through the tough neighborhood, where it’s not unusual to see young men being handcuffed and taken away by police. Then he heads to the subway and a round at Campo de Golf de La Ciudad, where he often plays.
“The very first thing I would like to do with any money I get through playing golf is to get my family out of the shantytown,” he said. “More than anything else, that is what I want. It is my first goal.”
This week he is playing a pro-am event with Angel Cabrera, Argentina’s top player. Cabrera has won two of golf’s most important tournaments, the Masters and the U.S. Open.
Dylan says his idol is Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland, the world’s top-ranked player and winner of the U.S. Open, British Open and twice the PGA Championship.
He said watching McIlroy play on television drew him to the game.
“I really liked it,” Dylan said. “How they strike the ball, the landscape, the peace. Everything about it.”

from Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom:“We must face the matter squarely that where there is something wrong in how we govern ourselves … the fault is not in our stars but in ourselves.”

La mentira del 17 de Octubre

22 octubre, 2014


Buenos Aires

16 de Octubre del año 2014 – 1295


LA MENTIRA DEL 17 DE OCTUBRE

El 17 de Octubre de 1945 se escenificó uno de los dramas más nefastos de la historia argentina. El año que viene van a cumplirse 70 años de esa farsa y desde entonces, la mentira ha prevalecido sobre la verdad, la vileza sobre la honorabilidad, la injusticia sobre la equidad, los ladrones sobre los honrados, los demagogos sobre los verdaderos patriotas, el caos social sobre la paz, en fin, toda la hez de la sociedad afloró para adueñarse del poder y conservarlo sin mengua, a pesar de aparentes y momentáneos eclipses.

En este día en que se cumplen 69 años de esa torpeza incalificable, quisiera dejar constancia de mi repudio total al peronismo y de mi expresa súplica al Dios de los Ejércitos para que termine para siempre con esa lepra nacional que es el peronismo. Esa fue la intención de mis oraciones en la misa a la que asistí hoy.

Pero además de rezar, quisiera dejar constancia en este periódico independiente de todo poder masónico, pero absolutamente sumiso a la Verdad y a la Justicia, de cual es la verdadera historia de ese perverso que fue Perón, de cómo se fraguó su toma del poder y cual ha sido su herencia destructora.

* * *

Empecemos por el golpe militar de 1943. Hoy todos los peronistas y sus imitadores (que son todos los políticos) execran los golpes militares, aunque cada vez  menos, porque las FFAA no son ya las mismas de hace 60 años y tal vez porque ahora esperan que sean la guardia pretoriana del régimen neo-comunista hacia el cual apuntan.

El golpe de 1943 fue inventado por el GOU, logia masónica militar dirigida por Perón. Se tiñó con algunos colores tradicionales, como la ley de enseñanza religiosa que redactó Gustavo Martinez Zuviría (“Hugo Wast”) pero su esencia era ambigua y se prestaba para todo. Como que se prestó para que Perón hiciera de ella su pedestal para asaltar el poder y quedarse, él y sus partidarios, durante estos 69 años.

Perón se hizo nombrar Director Nacional de Trabajo, con acumulación de sus cargos de Ministro de Ejército y vicepresidente de la Nación. Desde el cargo laboral, hizo demagogia con los dirigentes obreros consiguiendo que éstos lo apoyaran para la realización de sus planes políticos. Entre ellos estaba Cipriano Reyes.

El 9 de Octubre de 1945, el gral. Avalos, jefe de Campo de Mayo y Ministro de Guerra, exigió la renuncia de Perón y lo mandó encarcelar en la isla Martín García. Poco duró esa prisión porque Perón, probablemente fingiendo una enfermedad, se hizo trasladar al Hospital Militar en Buenos Aires.

Entretanto, el Presidente Edelmiro J. Farrell, pidió a la Corte Suprema que le propusiera una lista de Ministros para formar un gobierno provisorio hasta las elecciones.

La Corte Suprema, presidida por Roberto Repetto, terminó de preparar su propuesta el 17 de Octubre de 1945 a la tarde, y la mandó a la Procuración General para su revisión y envío a Farrell. El Procurador General le encargó a mi tío Juan Carlos Beccar Varela, uno de los funcionarios a su cargo, que llevara la nota a la Casa Rosada. Me contó mi tío que llegó a la Casa de gobierno cuando ya atardecía y que dentro de ella reinaba una gran agitación. Farrell recibió el papel de la Corte Suprema pero dijo: “Es demasiado tarde”. Poco después irrumpía allí Perón y aparecía en el famoso balcón para dirigirse a una escasa multitud que no llenaba ni de cerca la Plaza de Mayo.

Perón había dudado mucho antes de abandonar el Hospital Militar para dirigirse a la Plaza. Sus cómplices le aseguraban que no había ningún peligro pero él dudaba porque era un cobarde. Finalmente, Evita por poco lo lleva de las orejas y es así como el demagogo inició su camino hacia el poder.

Cipriano Reyes, dirigente del gremio de la carne, había traído a la Plaza de Mayo a unos cuantos cientos de obreros en las famosas “bañaderas”, que eran una especie de omnibus recortados y sin techo. Otros gremialistas aportaron también concurrentes, pero en total, según las fotos que he visto de la Plaza tomadas ese día a la hora en que Perón hablaba desde la Casa Rosada, no eran más de 10.000 personas allí presentes. Sé lo que digo porque en la Plaza, llena de bote en bote, caben unas 40.000 personas, calculando que unas 4 personas pueden instalarse, apretadamente, en un metro cuadrado. Descontando el espacio de los monumentos y los jardines, la Plaza tiene unos 10.000 metros cuadrados y ese día a esa hora, la gente apenas llegaba hasta la pirámide de Mayo y estaba dispersa, de manera que el cálculo matemático indica una asistencia de unas 10.000 personas. Si alguien quiere discutir esa cifra (que he mencionado con amplia generosidad para los manifestantes, porque tal vez eran menos) le desafío a que muestre la foto de la Plaza a la hora que Perón hablaba y verá que digo la verdad.

Pues bien, eso, y nada más que eso, fue el famoso “día de la lealtad” del 17 de Octubre del 1945 y con base en esa falsa leyenda se construyó el poder de Perón.

El gral. Avalos que había ordenado la detención de Perón, renunció al Ministerio de Guerra y desde ese día en adelante el Presidente Farrell no hizo otra cosa que preparar el dudoso triunfo electoral de Perón en Febrero de 1946.

Ese “triunfo” fue una combinación del poder militar en manos de Perón, del apoyo sindical propiciado por Cipriano Reyes, la estupidez de la oposición que formó una “Unión Democrática” integrada por el partido comunista aborrecido por los argentinos y el espaldarazo que el Episcopado le dió a Perón. Además de todo eso, el Embajador de los EEUU, Spruille Braden, tuvo la imprudencia de mostrar su oposición a Perón, cosa que éste aprovechó para crear el famoso “slogan”: “¡Braden o Perón!”.

Desde que Perón subió al poder en Junio de 1946 se dedicó a formar un partido que le sirviera de instrumento, usando su propio nombre para su designación. Se llamó “partido peronista”, dejando de lado al partido laborista que lo había llevado de candidato en la elección de Febrero y encarcelando a su jefe, Cipriano Reyes en un acto de cinismo y de desagradecimiento que fue el comienzo del terror que inspiraba a sus seguidores, todos ellos conscientes de que si “caían en desgracia” podían ir a parar a la cárcel, como Reyes.

El “gobierno” de Perón fue tiránico, deshonesto, demagógico y ruinoso. De un gran país hizo una republiqueta deleznable.  Se rodeó de gente como él, o sea, de individuos de pocos escrúpulos y baja condición. La más importante fue su mujer, Eva Duarte, alias “Evita”. Había sido artista de cine y de radio, entre otras cosas, y estaba poseída de una furia política desusada. No tenía inconveniente en blasfemar en su desatada idolatría de Perón. Una vez la oí decir en un discurso: “¡Yo no concibo el cielo sin Perón!”. Es decir, el cielo era para ella, Perón. Dios era como un “personaje” secundario.

Sus colaboradores o sirvientes, como quiera llamárselos, eran tan deshonestos como el mismo Perón, cuya fortuna personal creció durante la presidencia, tan es así que cuando fue derrocado vivió como un rey durante los 18 años de exilio. Su última residencia fue una importante casa en el exclusivo barrio de “Puerta de Hierro”, en las afueras de Madrid.

Su derrocamiento por la Revolución Libertadora en Septiembre de 1955 fue fruto de un clamor popular. Nunca ví una multitud más grande que la que recibió al gral. Lonardi cuando llegó triunfante desde Córdoba a Buenos Aires. Ocupaba todas las avenidas desde el Aeroparque hasta la Plaza de Mayo y ésta por completo con todas sus calles accesorias.

Lamentablemente Lonardi fue derrocado por la masonería liberal encabezada por la “Junta Consultiva” integrada por los políticos y el gral Aramburu, de la misma filiación, ocupó la presidencia de facto.

Los errores cometidos por Aramburu, entre ellos, el de no impedir que Frondizi fuera elegido Presidente en 1958 mediante un pacto con Perón, permitieron que el peronismo se convirtiera en un virus nacional que penetró en todos los partidos y en todas las instituciones, incluyendo el clero y la Fuerzas Armadas.

El peronismo más que un partido político pasó a ser una mentalidad constituida por una dosis poderosa de resentimiento social igualitario, otra dosis de estatismo prepotente y otra de latrocinio. La política se convirtió en un negocio de rufianes al servicio de una ideología de contenido marxista puesto que incluye la lucha de clases, el desprecio de la propiedad privada (de los sometidos) y la supresión de las garantía individuales. Los rufianes son la “nomenklatura” de ese movimiento, como lo eran los jefes de la URSS y lo son hoy en Rusia o en Cuba, que viven como reyes del fruto de su rapiña, pero sin dejar de aspirar a una sociedad sin clases y a la dictadura del proletariado.

Y así hemos llegado al momento actual en que nadie es dueño del nombre “peronista”, pero casi todos tienen mentalidad peronista, es decir, son proto-marxistas con creciente simpatía por el bloque neo-comunista del mundo y de Iberoamérica en especial.

Mientras esa situación no acabe, no hay salida para el país, a no ser por una rampa inclinada que conduce al comunismo. Quienes nos oponemos a ese descenso siniestro, quedamos aislados como extranjeros en su propia tierra, hablando un idioma que nadie entiende, el idioma del catolicismo, de la lógica, del trabajo y el de la honradez intelectual y económica.

El monopolio político del peronismo tiene al clero como uno de sus más eficientes apoyos. Los primeros que contribuyen a consolidar el dominio de la mentalidad peronista y al aislamiento de los resistentes, son los clérigos, inclusive los de más alta jerarquía, como ha podido verse por la inusitada “amabilidad” con que la usurpadora presidencial es tratada nada menos que por el Papa. Y eso a pesar de que Perón quemó varias de las más importantes iglesias de Buenos Aires y profanó sus Sagrarios.

En este nuevo aniversario del ominoso y falso “día de la lealtad”, inventado en todas sus partes, dejo constancia de mi repudio al peronismo y rezo para que la Virgen de Luján, Patrona de la Argentina, acabe con esa peste antes de que ésta acabe con nuestra Patria.

Cosme Beccar Varela

e-mail: correo@labotellaalmar.com

ESPAÑA y Argentina durante Videla

21 octubre, 2014

http://www.clarin.com/politica/Documentos-probarian-Espana-dictadura-argentina_0_1233476842.html

muestra como España defendía los intereses de España y Videla  aceptaba   reclamos económicos

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Oct 20, 2014

20 octubre, 2014
 
 
 2. ARGENTINE TOWN FACES GHOSTS OF ITS DIRTY WAR (The Washington Post)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1. ARGENTINA PLANS TO SELL UP TO $1 BILLION IN DOLLAR-LINKED BONDS (The Wall Street Journal)
By Ken Parks
20 October 2014
 
BUENOS AIRES — Argentina’s government said it would sell up to $1 billion in local U.S. dollar-linked bonds later this month as it continues to tap local institutional investors such as banks and insurers for financing.
 
The two-year, dollar-denominated bonds carry an annual interest rate of 1.75% and pay investors in Argentine pesos at the official exchange rate, the Economy Ministry said Friday night.
 
The government will receive offers for the bonds on Thursday, with final settlement Oct. 28.
 
“Selling bonds linked to the exchange rate is a normal and widespread recipe in emerging markets when fears of a devaluation are rising on the market and [a government] wants to send signals that it won’t devalue,” said Pedro Rabasa, a former chief economist at the central bank.
 
The peso closed little changed at 8.4760 a dollar Friday on the regulated foreign-exchange market. On the black market, where some Argentines go to skirt currency controls that limit the number of dollars they can legally purchase, the peso sold for 14.70 a dollar.
 
The gap between exchange rates is fueling speculation the government eventually might devalue the official exchange rate, something central-bank chief Alejandro Vanoli ruled out last week. In January, the government let the peso slide 20% to stop a run on the country’s hard-currency reserves in the biggest devaluation since 2002.
 
Mr. Rabasa thinks it isn’t a question of if the authorities will devalue the peso, rather when and by how much.
 
“The longer the central bank takes to move the exchange rate, the greater the risk that this ends in an uncontrolled devaluation,” he said.
 
Thursday’s bond issuance will mark the third time that President Cristina Kirchner has tapped domestic debt markets for financing this year as a dispute with creditors in the U.S. prevents her administration from selling bonds overseas.
 
Last month, the government sold 10 billion pesos ($1.17 billion) in two-year peso bonds. In March, it sold 5.5 billion pesos in three-year bonds, the first time in several years it raised funds from domestic investors.
 
The peso bond sales allowed the government to reduce its reliance on money printing to cover spending deficits, while at the same time helping the monetary authority contain inflation by taking pesos out of the economy, analysts say.
 
The government’s funding strategy still relies to a large degree on borrowings from the national pension agency and the central bank. Analysts point to money printing by the central bank to finance the federal government as a significant contributor to inflation of around 40%.
 
Argentina hasn’t sold bonds offshore since it defaulted on about $100 billion in 2001 amid a deep economic crisis. The governments of Mrs. Kirchner and her husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, managed to swap about 93% of the defaulted debt that was eligible to be restructured for heavily discounted new bonds.
 
However, some creditors demanded to be paid in full and have hounded Argentina in courts across the globe. Earlier this year, Argentina defaulted on some of its restructured bonds after a judge barred payments unless the Kirchner administration also pays holdout creditors that have won $1.6 billion in court awards.
 
The dispute with holdouts is seen as the main impediment to Argentina borrowing abroad to relieve dollar shortages that have led it to restrict imports at the expense of economic growth.
 
 
2. ARGENTINE TOWN FACES GHOSTS OF ITS DIRTY WAR (The Washington Post)
October 20, 2014
 
OLAVARRIA, Argentina — Shade trees hide the crumbling farm house outside of Olavarria. Hidden at the end of a dirt path, the white plaster coating is falling away from the brick foundation like scabs peeling off an unhealed wound.
 
Araceli Gutierrez guards the memories of this place like a fragile keepsake. A voluntary caretaker, the 61-year-old with faded blonde curls watches over the house known as Monte Peloni where, as a young woman, she was tortured and raped by her military captors.
 
“This is a faithful reflection of the memory,” she says, walking through the decaying rooms, her expression lost in time. “If it collapsed, it would be as if the most important part of my life were to collapse.”
 
The events that took place in 1977 now are coming to light, forcing residents of this pastoral community to examine their role in Argentina’s Dirty War against those who challenged the military regime.
 
One secret unearthed this summer already cracked Olavarria’s facade of quiet rural life.
 
In August, residents learned an Olavarria music teacher named Ignacio Hurban was, in fact, Guido Montoya Carlotto, the lost grandson of Estela de Carlotta, whose Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo group searches for children taken by the regime.
 
Now, Olavarria is learning about the secrets of Monte Peloni. Gutierrez is among the witnesses testifying before a judicial panel investigating the detentions of 21 people taken there by military officials.
 
A hearing set for next year will uncover abuses allegedly committed against 40 other people at Monte Peloni by 70 defendants, including former police officers, prison officials and town leaders who served as advisers to the regime that ruled Argentina from 1976 to 1983.
 
“With this tribunal, plus the appearance of Guido,” Gutierrez said, “Olavarria has wwked up.”
 
But it has been a difficult awakening. Olavarria, some 220 miles (350 kilometers) southwest of Buenos Aires, is a prosperous farming and industrial town that holds onto tradition. The afternoon siesta is still a part of life for many of the 90,000 residents. The twin steeples of the Catholic church stand over Olavarria’s tree-lined central square, right next to city hall.
 
The process is exposing secrets long buried by Olavarria, where victims and the accused share the same streets and know the same people.
 
Four aging military men could be sent to prison for life as a result of the tribunal that opened Sept. 22 and is expected to conclude before the close of the year.
 
The four defendants are Omar “Pajaro” Ferreyra, 64, an army sergeant who went on to serve as Olavarria’s director of urban control; retired Gen. Ignacio Verdura, 82, who commanded the regiment that controlled the region; former Capt. Walter Grosse, 69; and former Lt. Horacio Leite, 64.
 
Townspeople old and young crowd into a room at the local state university, or gather outside at the windows, to hear recollections of kidnapping and torture, of being taken to the bathroom of the old farmhouse, where the most sensitive parts of one’s body were fastened to electrical cables and shocked.
 
Tales of Monte Peloni, named for the Swiss family who built the home in the 1800s, long passed from one resident to another like ghost stories.
 
“I had one friend who would tell us that it scared him to walk by there at night,” said Facundo Carlucho, an industrial engineering student in Olavarria.
 
“I think it’s good that justice is being done for what happened in this country. I didn’t live through that time but, from what my parents told me, I know enough.”
 
Other communities in Argentina launched investigations into their Dirty War-era abuses years ago, but in Olavarria, there was “resistance” by longstanding social groups that continue to hold influence, according to Walter Romero, the prosecutor leading the Monte Peloni tribunal.
 
“It’s a small town with a conservative profile,” said Rafael Curtoni, dean of social science faculty at Central University of Buenos Aires province.
 
Curtoni said Olavarria continues to guard “certain secrets of the business sector and of people in power” who cooperated with the dictatorship.
 
“We all know who they are and where they are,” he said.
 
Many in Olavarria were stunned by the story of Hurban, who learned his true identity after volunteering to have his DNA tested. Shortly after his birth in 1978, he was taken from his mother, who died in military captivity, and given to a couple who raised him on a local farm.
 
Hurban has said his adoptive parents are “an extraordinary couple” who cared for him “with the greatest of love.” The Plaza de Mayo group opposes any effort by authorities to question the couple, concerned such an interrogation would discourage other lost children from coming forward.
 
As many are realizing, examination of the past is a delicate endeavor.
 
Carmelo Vinci, a former Monte Peloni detainee who now heads the Commission for the Memory of Olavarria, says local business owners participated in the repression of dissidents, noting that the people they employed in local factories were among the first to be detained. The tribunal has said it will investigate allegations that local Rotary Club members were given advance knowledge of who the military intended to pick up.
 
But Oscar Unzaga, president of the city’s main Rotary Club, denied that any such collusion occurred.
 
After consulting with the club’s oldest members, he told The Associated Press, “we decided not to say anything (about the charge) because that would give importance to an embittered testimony that does not deserve a response.”
 
The whole process of the tribunal, he said, is “a circus where the result is already decided.” All of the charges should be dismissed, he said, “because we are suffering attacks” perpetrated by guerrillas.
 
The airing of Olavarria’s secrets has made for uncomfortable encounters, said Vinci, who owns a printing shop in town.
 
A former military officer connected to the regime occasionally passes his store, he said. “Before, he would greet me very cordially. … But since the hearings began, he is not so friendly.”
 
A confrontation Gutierrez had with Ferreyra while he led the city’s urban control department some years ago was recorded by a television program and broadcast nationwide. The camera recorded Gutierrez as she chased him down the corridor of city hall shouting, “Come and tell me that you don’t know me.”
 
Ferreyra simply walked away, leaving her demand to hang in silence.
 
 
3. ARGENTINA LEADER ORDERED TO REST FOR 48 HOURS (The Washington Post)
October 17, 2014
 
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Doctors told Argentine President Cristina Fernandez on Friday to rest for 48 hours in order to recover from a sore throat.
 
Argentina’s presidency said in a statement that the 61-year-old leader is suffering from pharyngitis and had to suspend a public event scheduled for later in the day in order to get some rest.
 
It’s the latest health issue to sideline Fernandez.
 
In January, she was treated for hip pain and sciatica, and in July she missed Independence Day celebrations to continue recovering from an acute throat infection. Last year, she underwent head surgery to remove a blood clot. A 40-day period between December and January when Fernandez went silent from public comments caused concern over her condition.
 
Fernandez was last seen in public Thursday night after the launching of Argentina’s first domestically built communications satellite.
 
 
 
4. ARGENTINA PLANNING $1 BILLION DOLLAR-LINKED BOND SALE (Bloomberg News)
By Katia Porzecanski
Oct 19, 2014
 
Argentina plans to sell as much as $1 billion of dollar-linked bonds this month, the first sale of its kind by the sovereign in at least a decade.
 
The country, which hasn’t sold debt in international markets since defaulting on a record $95 billion in 2001, will take offers on the two-year local securities beginning Oct. 23, the Economy Ministry said in a statement Oct. 17. The bonds will be denominated in dollars and pay holders in pesos at the official exchange rate, with an annual interest rate of 1.75 percent. The sale will close Oct. 28.
 
The securities offer protection against a peso devaluation and are being sold as the government tightens controls on informal currency markets. Argentines who can’t or don’t want to get government permission to access U.S. currency pay as much as 73 percent more for dollars in the black market.
 
“Despite the capital gains in pesos you’d get with a dollar-linked bond in the medium term from the inevitable correction in the real exchange rate, the price and yield for dollar debt is still superior,”Daniel Marx, a former finance secretary who runs Buenos Aires consulting company Quantum Finanzas, wrote in a report Oct. 17.
 
The sale will compensate insurance companies that were told by government officials to sell their dollar-denominated bond holdings to relieve pressure on the informal exchange rate, Buenos Aires-based newspaper Ambito Financiero reported last week, without saying where it got the information.
 
Jesica Rey, a spokeswoman for the Economy Ministry, didn’t immediately reply to a message sent after normal business hours seeking comment on the objective of the sale.
 
Dollar Access
Central bank President Alejandro Vanoli met with the nation’s banking association last week and reiterated a devaluation shouldn’t be expected, the monetary authority said in an Oct. 16 statement. Vanoli discussed measures to stimulate savings in pesos, the statement said.
 
Since her re-election in 2011, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has restricted access to dollars as surging inflation spurred capital flight and a plunge in central-bank reserves. Prices rose 40.3 percent in September from a year earlier, according to the City of Buenos Aires.
 
Argentine companies and provinces have issued about $5 billion in dollar-linked securities as funding costs abroad jumped and speculation the peso would be devalued fueled domestic demand for the instruments, according to data compiled by the Argentine Institute of Capital Markets.
 
The nation devalued the peso 19 percent in January, and 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the currency to fall an additional 26 percent by the second quarter of next year to 11.4 per dollar.
 
This is Argentina’s third bond issuance in local markets this year. The nation sold 10 billion pesos ($1.2 billion) of two-year bonds last month and 5.5 billion pesos of three-year bonds in March.
 
 
5. MONSANTO SEEKING TO CURB WEED-KILLER MISUSE IN ARGENTINA (Bloomberg News)
By Charlie Devereux and Pablo Gonzalez
Oct 17, 2014
 
Monsanto Co. (MON), the world’s largest seed company, is planning to restrict sales of its herbicides in Argentina to certified buyers in a bid to reduce incidents of incorrect spraying that pose health risks.
 
The St Louis, Missouri-based company is working to create a register of herbicide users, Fernando Giannoni, director of corporate affairs for southern Latin America, said in an interview yesterday in Buenos Aires.
 
“We hope in the future to only sell our product to certified appliers,” Giannoni said. “Of course we don’t recommend that it’s applied near urban populations, nor schools or rivers. I don’t rule out that in the future we could sue farmers that apply our product incorrectly.”
 
He denied a report by Argentina’s National University of Rio Cuarto in Cordoba that links glyphosate, used in Monsanto’s weed killers, with cancer and blamed any side effects on farmers misusing the chemical. Giannoni said that while he hasn’t seen the Rio Cuarto paper, other reports have always ended up being disproved when sent up for peer review by the international scientific community.
 
Monsanto will seek to work with provinces or the national government to establish norms for the application of herbicides, Giannoni said. Argentina accounted for 7.5 percent of Monsanto’s sales last year, up from 5.9 percent in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
 
“What’s happening is that there’s 5 percent of people that are using our product irresponsibly and this causes damage that applies to all farmers,” Giannoni said. “As an industry we need to close ranks so that everyone applies the product responsibly and expose those who don’t.”
 
 
 
6. ARGENTINA SAYS TO LAUNCH NEW TWO-YEAR BOND ISSUE UP TO $1 BLN (Reuters News)
17 October 2014
 
BUENOS AIRES, Oct 17 (Reuters) – Argentina will launch a new two-year sovereign bond on Oct. 23 for up to $1 billion, denominated in U.S. dollars and paid in the local peso currency, the Economy Ministry said in a statement on Friday.
 
The new bond will have an annual coupon of 1.75 percent, the statement said, adding that the minimum amount to be launched on Thursday will be $500 million.
 
The obligations will be paid at the country’s official exchange rate, it said.
 
“This bond is exclusively for the domestic market. The buyers will be local insurance companies and other institutional investors,” said Alejo Costa, chief strategist at local investment bank Puente.
 
“The government is trying to show it can issue at a low rate. It is also trying to mop up some excess liquidity,” he added. “The bond is denominated in dollars but the government will receive pesos and pay out in pesos, according to the exchange rate.”
 
The issue comes at a difficult time for Latin America’s No. 3 economy. The government defaulted on it global bonds in July after spurning a U.S. court decision ordering full repayment to “holdout” hedge funds that declined to participate in a pair of restructurings that followed Argentina’s 2002 debt crisis.
 
Investors who exchanged bonds in 2005 and 2010 were paid less than 30 cents on the dollar.
 
Inflation is expected by private economists to end this year at about 40 percent, one of the world’s highest rates, while heavy currency and trade controls weigh on economic activity.
 
 
 
7. CHINESE LOAN TO ARGENTINA EXPECTED IN NOVEMBER  (Reuters News)
19 October 2014
 
BUENOS AIRES, Oct 19 (Reuters) – A multibillion-dollar currency swap between Argentina and China will launch in November, bolstering the South American country’s diminished foreign reserves, the central bank chief was quoted as saying in a local paper on Sunday.
 
The swap will permit Argentina to either pay for Chinese imports with the yuan currency or reinforce its hard currency reserves, which have fallen by more than 30 percent this year.
 
It is part of a loan worth a total $11 billion signed by Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez and her Chinese counterpart in July, shortly before the Latin American nation defaulted on its debt for the second time in 12 years.
 
“The swap with the People’s Bank of China … we estimate that it will become operative in November,” local newspaper Pagina/12 reported Alejandro Vanoli said in an interview.
 
The newspaper, which has close ties with the Fernandez government, did not report additional details on the exchange.
 
No government or central bank officials were immediately available for comment.
 
Sources have previously told Reuters that Argentina will receive an initial installment of Chinese yuan worth about $700-$800 million before year’s end.
 
Argentina has relied on its reserves to pay for government expenses and has struggled to replenish them without access to global capital markets since its default.
 
“Reserves are for being used,” Vanoli told Pagina/12. “The government is not afraid, in a situation as special as this one is, to pay off its debt with reserves.”
 
Vanoli took over as the head of the central bank earlier this month after his predecessor quit in a dispute with the government.
 
Vanoli told Pagina/12 that he expects Argentina to end the year with a stock of reserves close to the current level.
 
Argentina’s international reserves now stand at $27.3 billion, according to central bank figures updated on Friday.
 
The economy ministry said on Friday that it plans to launch a new two-year sovereign bond for up to $1 billion this month.
 
Vanoli also said in the interview that Argentina’s dispute with the holdout owners of its defaulted debt will not likely be easily solved upon the expiration of a bond clause at the end of the year.
 
Argentina contends the so-called Rights Under First Offer, or RUFO, clause prohibits it from offering better terms to creditors who refused to take part in past debt restructurings.
 
“With respect to the RUFO clause … this idea has emerged that on January 2 everything will be fixed. And the answer is that on January 2 nothing is going to happen,” Vanoli was quoted saying in Pagina/12.
 
Vanoli said the hedge funds that have sued Argentina for full payment on its defaulted bonds must be more flexible with their demands.
 
 
8. ARGENTINIAN AUTHOR’S BOOK BASED ON JOURNEY OF ALUM, OTHER TEACHERS IN 19TH CENTURY (The MetroWest Daily News)
By Scott O’Connell
17 October 2014
 
Gloria Casañas’s best-selling novel is based on a group of American teachers who traveled halfway across the globe to teach students in Argentina in the late 19th century.
 
Casañas, a native of the South American country, now can relate.
 
The author, lawyer and professor has made a similar trek this fall to Framingham State University, where she is currently serving as the school’s first visiting lecturer.
 
“In a way, I think I’m having the same experience those teachers had when they went to Argentina,” Casañas said, pointing out that similar to those educators, who had to learn Spanish after they arrived, she is adjusting to English, the weakest of her three languages.
 
While this is her first trip to Massachusetts, Casañas is familiar with Framingham State, however. One of the historical figures of her book, “La Maestra de la Laguna,” is based on is Jennie Howard, an 1866 graduate of the school who was part of the contingent of teachers invited by President Domingo Faustino Sarmiento to set up teacher schools like Framingham State in Argentina.
 
Their story is in many ways a significant part of Argentine history, said Emilce Cordeiro, another native of the country and chairwoman of Framingham State’s world languages department, where Casañas is teaching this semester.
 
“(Casañas) wanted to emphasize the kind of education system Argentina had because of these teachers,” she said. “It was the best in Latin America at the time.”
 
But despite having the support of Sarmiento, the teachers faced adversity in the form of the Catholic Church, which ran the country’s educational system at the time and wasn’t welcoming of a group of American Protestants, as well as a prevailing belief that women only needed to learn to cook and sew, Casañas said. They also did much of their work out in Argentina’s distant provinces – “they were sent to the middle of nowhere,” Cordeiro said.
 
Casañas didn’t have it quite so bad when she came to Framingham State in August. The school set up an on-campus apartment for her to live in, for example, and instead of having to build an entire network of teachers colleges, her main responsibilities as a visiting lecturer are to teach an undergraduate and graduate course – in her native Spanish – in the world languages department. Both classes focus primarily on the Argentine normal school movement featured in her book.
 
Planning lessons based on her novel has been a challenge, though, according to Casañas.
 
“It was very difficult” just doing research for the book, she said. “There wasn’t a lot of information about this specific topic.”
 
Cordeiro said university officials had been planning to invite a visiting lecturer for more than a year, and found Casañas to be a good inaugural candidate given her book’s subject matter and the university’s 175th anniversary this year as America’s first public normal school. Framingham State plans to invite more visiting lecturers over the next few years as part of a new emphasis on global education.
 
“The majority of students in our major, they want to be teachers, so they’re very interested in this idea, that a group of teachers from this area decided to do this trip,” Cordeiro said.
 
Casañas, who will be giving public presentations on campus about her novel and its historical subject matter on Oct. 23 and Oct. 29, has also enjoyed the experience so far.
 
“I think it’s going to be a shock to go back to Argentina,” she said. “I’m going to remember this as a dream.”
 

MALVINAS (versión británica)

20 octubre, 2014

Originalmente publicado en ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYZJ6oXo_3I&sns=em
 
Es tarde… estoy cansado y la mando sin corregir typos y errores o no sale

HOLA SUE y  GERMAN   (Con copia a TEX

 

Cuando hace dos años (a 30 años de Malvinas) y  en plena propaganda a favor o en contra de Argentina, yo sostuve que “La historia no es tan cierta ni para un lado ni para el otro y que yo mismo fui testigo de que la entrega de las islas a Argentina era una cosa planeada y en vías de concretarse…”

Entonces  ustedes no me creyeron, es mas,  me sentí bastante incomodo y hasta mal tratado,  al punto que (de a poco) nos fuimos separando y terminamos dividiendo el blog que hicimos juntos…” y terminamos cada uno con el suyo… me refiero a:

www.argentinasalvajizada.wordpress.com  y

www.argentinasalvajiza2.wordpress.com

El canciller prusiano Bismark decía: “Nunca se miente tanto como durante una guerra, antes de las elecciones o después de…

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DESGOBIERNA CRISTINA K.

19 octubre, 2014

http://www.infobae.com/2014/10/19/1602757-mario-vargas-llosa-el-desgobierno-ha-conducido-la-argentina-la-caida-libre

nuevamente el peronismo ha engañado con falsas promesas y dadivas de dinero publico inflacionario, y Argentina s

SCHOCK SHOKLENDER

16 octubre, 2014

Originalmente publicado en ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA:

—– Mensaje reenviado —–
De: Daniel Balbastro <balbastro@tigo.com.py>
Para: Undisclosed-Recipient@yahoo.com
Enviado: jueves, 2 de junio de 2011 22:23
Asunto: El fiscal pedirá mañana a Oyarbide que investigue la denuncia contra Schoklender (OPINA VIZ<CACHA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<9

El fiscal pedirá mañana a Oyarbide que investigue la denuncia contra Schoklender

Di Lello formulará el requerimiento de instrucción de la causa contra el ex apoderado de Madres por presunto lavado; una ex titular de la UIF advirtió que también debe exigírsele información a Madres y a De Vido

 
 
Para llegar a “esto”,es preferible no tener gobierno,ni parlamento,ni justicia! Llegò la hora de los INDIGNADOS ! Que se vayan todos, pero TODOS LOS POLITICOS Y FUNCIONARIOS DEPREDADORES CORRUPTOS Y MAFIOSOS Basta de engaños !! basta de servirse de los pobres y los dèbiles. Se viene el Sunami de la verdadera rebeldìa ! Que tiemblen los corruptos poderosos de la polìtica mafiosa. Ay del “manso” cuando…

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Pat Buchanan on US Options in Ukraine..

16 octubre, 2014

Originalmente publicado en ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA:

<h3 “”=”” id=”yui_3_13_0_1_1397997181878_3456″ style=”font-weight: 300;”>Fw: Foreign Policy — Pat Buchanan on US Options in Ukraine.. When I send out Buchanan essays.. the world is in deep trouble.. cheers Tex

SUE LITTLETON

Para 
Hoy a las 7:22 AM
Moi et les trois chats joyeux =*&gt;:) devil=  =*&gt;:) devil=  =*&gt;:) devil=

Sent: Saturday, 19 April 2014, 22:16
Subject: Foreign Policy — Pat Buchanan on US Options in Ukraine.. When I send out Buchanan essays.. the world is in deep trouble.. cheers Tex
Pat Buchanan on US Options in Ukraine.. 
By: Patrick J. Buchanan
4/18/2014 06:00 AM
When Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Empire an “evil empire,” the phrase reflected his conviction that while the East-West struggle was indeed a global geostrategic conflict, it had a deep moral dimension.
If Americans did not see the Cold War as he did, a battle between good and evil, Reagan knew that they would…

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CRISTINA ES VOTABLE EN 2015

14 octubre, 2014

Originalmente publicado en ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA:

La Presidenta seguramente ha pedido a su hijo que pida reforma constitucional para ella ser reelecta, con el falaz argumento de que la oposición teme ser derrotada por ella. Pero Máximo no argumentó como podía, olvidó que su madre puede elegir ella misma ser desafiada electoralmente y derrotar a la oposición en las elecciones próximas, que creo son en Octubre de 2015: le alcanza con presentarse como Gobernadora de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, y si sus provincianos coinciden que es tan Estadista como los K suponen, arrasará y desde esa Provincia podrá juntar a sus fans  además,  además de ayudar  a Scioli a ser electo Presidente, (o a cualquier otro que ella decida. Incluyendo a Máximo Kirchner…).

Cristina Gobernadora de Buenos Aires puede hacer lo que los demás políticos (Scioli incluido) no se atrevieron: lograr estabilidad monetaria para la Provincia, aplicando el Pacto famoso por el cual el Banco…

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