Archive for 30 abril 2013

Cavallo ¿logra justificarse?

30 abril, 2013

En su interesante blog, Domingo F. Cavallo insiste en acusar a otros – posteriores – de su error horroroso de implantar el corralito bancario el 1 de diciembre de 2001, haciendole firmar al enfermo presidente de la Rua papeles legales que eran inconstitucionales. Eso fue un delito penal, pero Cavallo pareciera que  lo ignora. Peor: contribuyó  para que Duhalde se asociara con el fracasado Raúl Ricardo Alfonsín, ambos dirigistas en materia de economía  para que el primero reemplazara (sin elección popular)   a su vencedor en elecciones limpias dos años antes, el electo democraticamente presidente Fernando de la Rúa. Corrupción y traición tenían por objetivo terminar con nuestra  moneda confiable peso convertible, para que los vándalos inflacionarios  siguieran esquilmandonos.

País sin moneda confiable,  en éste  tercer milenio, es señal de gobierno ladrón e incapaz. Han llegado al poder los salvajes para devorarnos al resto, y pelearse con otros países vecinos y lejanos, cuando posible, a la par que amigarse con Presidentes extranjeros, para hacer negocios sucios. El drama de Cavallo es su fracaso grotesco. Parece ser  Contador Publico  que entiende de cifras y estadísticas  pero sin cultura humanísta  Luego de su criminal corralito bancario,  me enteré que los  verdaderos inventores de la convertibilidad, a pedido de Carlos Menem como  presidente electo antes de asumir,  fueron dos norteamericanos del Cato Institute:  Steve H. Hanke y Kurt Schuler. Menem fue el único político argentino que entendió que en el mundo moderno no debiera un Gobernante robar a la sociedad por la vía de la emisión monetaria, máxime si es inflacionaria, como durante el corruptisimo hiperinflacionario periodo negro alfonsinista, que destrozó para siempre a la Unión Cívica Radical, que había  degeneró luego de la Presidencia de Alvear (1922/8).

INSENSATEZ

Veamos la insensatez del corralito bancario de Cavallo: prohibir que la gente use su dinero bancario por noventa días, equivale a que el Estado puede hacer cualquier cosa con la gente. Al día 91, no llegaron, le hicieron un golpe de Estado al presidente y lo sacaron pocos días y en helicóptero de la casa de Gobierno.

Los economistas argentinos se acostumbraron a vivir sin moneda estable, porque no les interesa la realidad, sino que creen posible dirigir todo desde el Ministerio de Economía  desde la productividad al crecimiento. Y son tan torpes, que necesitan esperar que transcurra un año completo para comprender si el curso de la productividad y bienestar nacional mejora o empeora. Incluso, técnicamente deben esperar dos años completos, 24 meses de retroceso, para concluir que estamos desgobernados. Semejante cerrazón mental es propio de matemáticos equivocados, no de gente normal, que de entrada advierte cuando el país esta desgobernado, y la emisión monetaria empobrece. Hasta los chicos lo saben, pero los economistas dirigistas lo ignoran, o fingen hacerlo muchos, porque su afán es llegar a ministros de Economía  el segundo mejor puesto para robar a todos los Argentinos usando una inflación que fingen no comprender. Obviamente, no quieren que termine. Y por eso, la convertibilidad – dolarizacion encubierta – de Menem acabó en sólo 5 meses con la hiperinflación, pero sus enemigos políticos no se lo perdonaron. ¿Acaso cree la gente que durante el menemismo se robó el gobierno mas dolares que durante el kirchnerismo? Porque es normal en  los países semi atrasados, como lo somos, que nuestros Presidentes, Gobernadores e Intendentes intenten enriquecerse impunemente desde sus cargos. Lo  A-normal, es la destrucción sistemática de las reglas de juego, violando la Constitución y creando un retroceso al salvajismo.

La insensatez de todos los presidentes a partir del primer Peronismo, es asombrosa: todos eligieron y prefirieron la inflación, para poder robarnos mejor, y dominar el Presidente a todos, gobernadores incluidos, por medio de apropiarse de la fabricación de billetes bancarios inflacionarios, y usarlos como herramienta para comprar las voluntades de bribones que están a cargo de municipalidades o Provincias, y que necesitan dinero para mantenerse en sus cargos y enriquecerse mejor. Cada día que transcurre, un gobernante bandido, intendente o gobernador, se enriquece ilícitamente, conformando asociaciones ilícitas  Y si el robo proviene desde y para la Corona, es fácil comprender que  los políticos amen la inflación, y finjan ignorar como terminarla.O que sean tan incapaces, que no saben como hacerlo.

Hace años se publicó un articulo mio sosteniendo que  Cavallo no había entendido el mecanismo de la convertibilidad (está en este blog su copia). Cavallo se ufanaba de que Argentina tenia alrededor de 50 mil millones de dolares como Reservas del banco Central, y hablaba como si fuese dinero de propiedad del Estado. Señal de ignorar Cavallo que esos fondos eran ajenos,  “custodiados” por cuenta de terceros, por el Banco Central , en cumplimiento de la ley de convertibilidad, que establecía que toda persona que quisiese poseer un peso convertible, debía previamente depositar con el Banco Central un dolar billete cash y de esa forma existía la total  seguridad de que siempre el peso convertible valdría un dolar, ni un centavo mas ni uno menos. Por eso, cuando el  Fernando de la Rúa demostró incapacidad  al mundo, la gente comenzó a retirar dolares del sistema financiero, canjeado pesos convertibles circulando, por dolares custodiados por el Banco Central. Así  a medida que los depósitos  se reducían  crecía la desconfianza de la gente y también de Cavallo, que tomó las alocadas  medidas dirigistas fascistas, como el  corralito que provocó la indignada reacción popular de la sociedad estafada. Ese error me indica  que Cavallo ignoraba que la salida a ese fenómeno de desconfianza en el dinero peso convertible, estaba contemplado en el esquema: era la dolarización, dejar de usar dinero argentino para que solo circulara el dolar internamente. Como hoy en Ecuador, con gran éxito. Veamos.

Si Cavallo  quería impedir que siguieran bajando dichos depósitos  había que demostrar que el gobierno era serio y honesto, cosa que NO sucedía. Pero así y todo, quedaba el último gran recurso: el Banco Central podía obligar a los detentadores de los pesos convertibles a canjearlos forzosamente y recibir en contra prestación un dolar verde por cada peso argentino convertible. Nadie se hubiera quejado, pues  a partir de ese momento, la moneda única corriente en Argentina seria el dolar, igual que lo es hoy en Ecuador, país sospechoso pero gobernado por un economista que sabe que la moneda dolar es lo mas parecido al patrón oro, desde la Gran Crisis o Gran depresión norteamericana, cuando las naciones civilizadas abandonaron el patrón oro o plata, excepto la Unión Norteamericana, que hizo retoques inteligentes gracias al asesoramiento de Keynes, un ingles sensato que vio que el Estado yanqui detentaba la mayor parte del metal oro y plata del planeta, es decir,que el Estado era rico,pero sus habitantes eran pobres, porque carecían de empleo, ya que el dolar atado al oro hacia cada vez mas impagables los salarios en dolares atados al oro en la Unión, y sus empresas quebraban y algunos dueños se arrojaban desde los rascacielos al http://ar-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.rand=1j3rui86rbjkc.  Esto ha sido  tratado antes en artículos farios y charlas de este blog.

CONCLUSIÓN:

tenemos un problema moral, los políticos aman enriquecerse, los economistas aman ser ministros de economía y todos fingen que es imposible que Argentina mejore. Al sistema ladrón fascista nazi de Alemania derrotado bélicamente en 1945 se lo arregló mediante la ocupación del territorio alemán occidental, (que era dos tercios de la actual Alemania unificada) por parte de USA y U.K. y se impusieron leyes e instituciones sensatas, que a  dos años de finalizada la guerra, en el sector occidental se demostró que era posible reconstruir un país en forma seria. La parte alemana que quedó en poder del socialismo soviético tardo 45 años en reintegrarse a la Alemania libre. Esto comprueba que al fascismo hay que terminarlo con educación  Igual sucedió en Japón. Pero en Argentina, derrotado nuestro fascismo militar en Malvinas, esto NO sucedió, porque la mentalidad fascista retrograda bandidesca perduró, ya que no fuimos ocupados por Margaret Thatcher en Argentina continental. El sistema argentino totalitario, entonces, paso directamente de los militares a Alfonsín, un  falso gran demócrata  que demostró su incapacidad al provocar la hiperinflacion mas pavorosa que tuvo Argentina, y nos inspira el lema hiperinflacion=hipercorrupción.

Alegra  que cuando Malvinas, los sensatos ingleses no invadieran nuestro territorio continental para derrotar a nuestros militares fascistas. Por eso, el autoritarismo militar subsistió, sólo que el Poder  pasó a manos de Alfonsín  como presidente electo, que pudo hacer todo lo que quiso, y eligió la emisión monetaria porque los radicales demagogos creen que es mejor no cobrar impuestos a la sociedad, con lo que terminan destrozando la cultura básica de los pueblos: si queremos tener policía seria, debemos pagar buenos sueldos, si queremos buenos maestros, idem. Pero debemos primero formarlos, como hizo Domingo F. Sarmiento cuando importó maestras desde el Estado de Massachussets para formar maestras capacitadas. Ergo, el autoritarismo militarista de Galtieri sigue intacto y hoy lo usa la Presidenta, por su incapacidad para rodearse de gente seria y honesta para administrar seriamente a Argentina. En su gobierno, los impresentables parecen ser demasiados,  la inflación nos asedia, y ella lo niega pero ha perdido credibilidad, a pesar del 54% de votos que  sacó hace un año y medio atrás, porque la oposición estaba dispersa y compuesta de políticos corruptos y fracasados, como radicales y otros que se aliaron siempre con gente sospechosa e insensata.

Mientras no aceptemos como hecho de la realidad objetiva, que “emisión monetaria inflacionaria” implica delito Estatal de violación de derechos humanos del pueblo, mas asociación ilícita dentro del Estado, no saldremos de este serie estilo Sísifo, de  fracaso en fracaso,”cuesta abajo en la rodada”. Generaciones de argentinos sin  moneda estable, nos embruteció  como nación: somos antiguos primitivos en cuanto a moneda se refiere. Se ignora que el sistema financiero para existir, requiere moneda estable y Presidentes honestos. Cosas que brillan por su ausencia, aunque la mayoría popular no alcance a comprender porque en USA pueden financiarse viviendas a veinte o mas años y en Suiza también  pero en Argentina esa financiación desapareció como servicio publico normal que un Estado serio debe prestar, legislando sensatamente. Es “la inexistencia de moneda, Estúpida” cabe gritarle a Cristina F. de K. si es cierto que ella pregunta como salir de este fracaso en que Duhalde, Néstor y ella nos metieron, por abandonar el peso convertible, sin legislar el Congreso en su reemplazo otra moneda con valor fijo, tal como establece nuestra C.N. en  Art. 75, inc. 11. Porque un país que no fija el valor de su moneda involuciona, es ya una  horda desgobernada por Presidentes inútiles y corruptos.

Cristina es hoy la responsable, por eso la gente manifiesta contra ella, pero nadie clama frente al Congreso para pedir que reinventen la moneda, un olvido, una piolada, una engañifa o un delito, todo depende el cristal con el que se mire la incapacidad de usar los gobernantes las herramientas que existen para que  los argentinos vivamos mejor. Si alguien lo conoce a Cavallo, por favor mandarle copia de esta charla.

Anuncios

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Apr 28, 2013

30 abril, 2013

 

Pérez Esquivel: ‘This isn’t democratization of justice, it’s submission”

Adolfo Pérez Esquivel.

Nobel Peace Prize recipient Adolfo Pérez Esquivel discussed his statements on the controversial judicial reform spearheaded by the National Government and said that even though “a reform would be healthy for this country” he does not agree with the Government’s proposal.

“You have to be careful with this, because this isn’t democratization, this is submission. Anything that the Government does against the population goes unpunished,” he said in an attempt to clarify his previous statements in which he seemed to be in complete agreement with the Government-sponsored judicial reform.

“I don’t agree with doing this in such a quick manner and behind closed doors,” he said while explaining his differences with the alleged goals of the reform.

“I’m also in disagreement with the injunctions bill or judges being elected by the popular vote. This conditions judges to the political power,” he said.

He explained that a democracy implies that citizens should have the right to sue the Government and acknowledged that the matter is not over.

“We’ll see where this goes. We still have to see what the Supreme Court does. I believe in this Court because it has done wonderful things,” he concluded.

 

An independent judiciary is democracy’s heart and soul

Demonstrators protest against a comprehensive judicial reform proposed by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, outside the National Congress in Buenos Aires, on Wednesday.

By: Robert Cox  BsAs Herald Op Ed 4/29

 

CHARLESTON — This is written in the tranquillity of a gem of a city that has preserved and conserved three centuries of great architecture.

 

This column is also written after two weeks in Buenos Aires that were so frenzied that the events my wife and I witnessed would fill a decade in Charleston.

 

Mayor Joe Riley says of the city he has cherished since he first took office in 1975 that it has a heritage that makes you think of Paris.

 

But when I think of Charleston, I think of Buenos Aires because both these great port cities derived their considerable wealth from agriculture: rice grown in the coastal marshlands in the case of Charleston and cattle and grain from the Argentina pampas.

We arrived in the wake of the flooding of La Plata, another foreseen tragedy that was allowed to happen. We saw the best of Argentina in the voluntary help provided the victims of an act of nature compounded by the inaction of a politicized bureaucracy.

Then we were sucked into the political vortex of Buenos Aires, which decides and all too often destroys the future of Argentina. We saw a civilian government that was elected and re-elected behave like a dictatorial regime, demanding blind obedience from its followers in a ruthless attack on the judiciary and the judicial system, which are the heart and soul of democracy.

 

In my opinion, there can now be no doubt that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wants to achieve what the Montoneros failed to achieve in 1973: a semi-totalitarian government like the regime that ruled East Germany. Argentina would look like Cuba under the Castro brothers or Chavista Venezuela.

 

Two institutions stand in the way of this unhinged objective: the judiciary and the media. I shared the President’s surprise at the Appeals Court ruling that declared key parts of the Media Law unconstitutional. I was surprised by the courage of the three judges in ruling as they did, knowing that they would have to face not only the fury of the President but also a scurrilous government campaign to discredit them. Cabinet Chief Juan Manuel Abal Medina described the judges as “excrement.”

 

The ruling, I think, makes sense. The government distorted the original intention of the anti-monopoly, trust-breaking Media Law to debilitate its declared enemy, the Clarín Group. The court recognized this intention, noting that it saw no “reasonable explanation” to show that limiting Clarín’s cable television licences and market share would serve anyone’s interest.

The only interest that would be served by breaking up Clarín’s audiovisual empire would be that of the government, which is doing everything within its power to cripple the opposition media.

Essentially, the court protected Clarín’s financial base. If the law had been upheld in its entirety, the Clarín Group would have to choose to keep Channel 13 or sell off its Cablevision network in Buenos Aires, while also divesting its cable systems in more than 100 towns and cities and also giving up Fibertel, its Internet service.

 

If the Clarín Group were to be forcibly dismantled, the reaction of its millions of generally satisfied customers would be something to behold. They could be expected to take to the streets to join the crowds that regularly respond to the civil mobilizations organized by social media.

 

The rush to control the courts and thereby ensure that there are no more rulings that will surprise the President appears to have been prompted by the enormous success of Jorge Lanata’s television show, Periodismo Para Todos (Journalism for Everyone). Lanata, who is both brilliant as a showman and as an investigative journalist with a career that stretches back some 30 years, has been revealing and documenting corruption at the highest level. He has also gained top ratings for his show, adding to the popularity of Channel 13, the jewel in the Clarín Group’s crown.

 

Millions of people throughout Argentina will be watching the show tonight on television and on line, at home and abroad.

Lanata has revealed what was fairly generally known but only was whispered about: the connection between the Kirchner family and money-laundering in the province of Santa Cruz. People’s eyes have been opened to a grotesque display of greed and opulence that is financed, it appears, from kickbacks on public work projects. Viewers have also learned how millions of dollars and euros in cash are flown out of Argentina via Panama, Belize, or some other tax haven, to Switzerland.

 

What is happening today in Argentina is what I have seen many times while reporting on Latin America and in defending press freedom as an official of the Inter American Press Association. When there is no effective opposition to authoritarian governments, the media fill this role. That is why authoritarian governments do everything they can to undermine the opposition press while building up their own communications network. That is achieved by expanding state-owned media and by feeding pro-government private media with government advertising while starving newspapers and broadcasters that do not get in line.

The corruption can only be handled adequately by an independent judiciary, certainly not by judges controlled by the government as would be the case if the judicial “reforms” that are in the process of being approved by Congress are not declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.

 

These are interesting times again and I regret that I will not be on the spot until early July, when Maud and I return to spend another four months doing everything we can as individuals to defend democracy and decency.

 

I would like to encourage readers to write to the Herald (letters@buenosairesherald.com) for publication of their views in the letters’ section “Your View” which appears on Saturdays. I am also delighted to have readers’ insights and opinions, which I try to reflect in my Sunday columns. Write to me at:

 

vatican

Pope Francis received Estela de Carlotto briefly

 

Accompanied by a legislator of Buenos Aires, the president of NGO Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo gave the Pontiff a folder and a letter with a request.

VATICAN

Francis: “God is a person, not a God-Spray”

Por / by Kit Maude (English version)

The Pope made the statement yesterday at the Santa Marta residence where he lives with other Catholic Bishops

======================================================================================

off

======================================================================================
GREAT TRAVEL PICTURES OF PATAGONIA…

http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/news-sculpted-azure-caverns-patagonias-general-carrera-lake?image=0

======================================================================================

1. KIRCHNER TARGETS ARGENTINA’S JUDICIARY (The Wall Street Journal)

 

2. ARGENTINA: GET READY FOR THE MESSI DOLLAR (Financial Times)

 

3. ANTI-IMF STAND FORGOTTEN WHEN CASH ON THE LINE: ARGENTINA CREDIT (Bloomberg News)

 

4. ARGENTINA’S MAD DASH FOR U.S. DOLLARS (Busisness Week)

 

5. IN THERAPY? IN ARGENTINA, IT’S THE NORM (CNN)

 

6. ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT FORCES JUDICIAL REFORM TOWARDS CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)

 

7. ROUSSEFF EXPECTS VALE TO SEEK DEAL WITH ARGENTINA FOR RÍO COLORADO PROJECT (Business News Americas)

 

8. CHILE’S CENCOSUD STRUGGLES WITH ARGENTINA CURRENCY RESTRICTIONS (Dow Jones Global News Select)

1. KIRCHNER TARGETS ARGENTINA’S JUDICIARY (The Wall Street Journal)

By Mary Anastasia O’Grady

29 April 2013

 

A video of the Venezuelan minister of penitentiaries at a Tuesday news conference in Caracas went viral within hours, and not because it is pleasant to watch. Rather it is proof that less than a week after being designated Hugo Chavez’s successor, Nicolas Maduro is tightening the authoritarian grip of the 14-year-old military government.

 

Minister Iris Varela has decided that opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles is responsible for the post-election violence in the capital. Mr. Capriles “is the intellectual author and must pay,” Ms. Varela proclaimed. Speaking directly to the former candidate, she declared: “I am preparing for you a cell where you are going to have to go because you are a fascist and a murderer.” In prison “we will see if we can remove those fascist thoughts.”

 

Ms. Varela could speak with such confidence because Mr. Maduro controls the Venezuelan judiciary. If he decides he wants Mr. Capriles behind bars, the trial is a formality.

 

The ugly reality of the Venezuelan police state is not lost on Argentines, who are now threatened by President Cristina Kirchner’s attempt to take control of the judiciary — a power grab that portends a similar end for their freedoms.

 

Mrs. Kirchner has made no secret of her admiration for the Chavez model of governance, but she has not had an easy time consolidating power. Argentine wealth is not concentrated in state hands like it is in Venezuela, where the government owns the monopoly oil company and therefore controls the economy.

 

Interests that do not coincide with hers have kept her from implementing a full socialist agenda, most notably when she tried to impose confiscatory export taxes on the agricultural sector in 2008. Another reason that dissidents have been somewhat successful at holding the power-hungry presidenta at bay is the independent media, which explains why she is trying to strangle it.

 

As I reported here on March 25, the Kirchner government has been starving independent newspapers by instructing food and electronics merchants not to advertise in them. The merchants are well aware that as the only supplier of import licenses and official foreign-exchange — and as the “consumer protection” watchdog for the nation — the Kirchner administration can make a heap of trouble for the noncompliant.

 

Controlling television coverage is a tougher challenge. Media conglomerate Grupo Clarin is the country’s lone independent telecommunications voice, with about 35% of Argentina’s cable market and a much smaller presence in other markets like radio. Its all-news television station provides the nation with information not available from other outlets, the vast majority of which are either owned by the government or promote its party line. In 2009, her government pushed through the Argentine Congress a new media law that gives the government control of about two-thirds of the total radio and television spectrum and forces Clarin to sell off assets, which would cause the company and its influence to shrink considerably.

 

Clarin won an injunction against the law in 2010. Mrs. Kirchner was not only unhappy with the media company, but also with Argentina’s independent judiciary.

 

This brings us to the recent news. Congressional midterm elections are set for October and the kirchneristas are desperate to win a majority so that they can change the law to allow the president to run for a third term. To reach that goal, the government decided that more cooperation from the courts is in order.

 

Mrs. Kirchner’s government drafted and Congress has now approved a law that, among other things, does away with existing rules for picking members of the magistrate council, the body that chooses and can impeach federal judges. Those rules ensured that the council would be made up of a politically mixed group of individuals chosen by politicians, judges, lawyers and academics.

 

In their place, the reform stipulates that the council will be elected by popular vote in the same election that chooses the president — raising the likelihood that the executive will control the judiciary. If 51% of voters want judges who will strip the other 49% of their property, so be it. The reform also limits to six months any injunction against a government policy, conveniently destroying the protection that Clarin now enjoys. There will also be new appellate courts with judges appointed by the council.

 

Argentine civil society is in an uproar over this aggression. On April 18 an estimated one million Argentines turned out in Buenos Aires to protest their government. Legal scholars, human-rights groups, Transparency International and advocates for press freedom are all warning that the law will end the separation of powers.

 

Just days before Congress approved Mrs. Kirchner’s reform, an appellate court ruled that forcing Clarin to sell assets under the 2009 media law is unconstitutional. The government is expected to appeal to the Supreme Court but analysts expect Clarin to prevail. Unless the high court also declares Mrs. Kirchner’s judicial reform unconstitutional, that could turn out to be the Argentine republic’s last gasp. Just ask Venezuelans.

 

 

2. ARGENTINA: GET READY FOR THE MESSI DOLLAR (Financial Times)

By Jude Webber

April 26, 2013

 

Argentina has the official dollar, the blue dollar, the sky-blue dollar, the card dollar, and a host of other things in between. But with the unofficial dollar rate at a new high of 9.34 pesos, the Messi dollar could be next.

 

The gap between that black market rate – known as the “blue” dollar – and the official rate of 5.19 pesos is now above 80 per cent.

It is no longer a question of whether it will continue to rise – that’s a given. The question is, when will it hit 10, the magic number on Argentine star striker Lionel Messi’s shirt?

 

Under strict foreign exchange controls introduced 18 months ago, Argentines are virtually cut off from access to the US currency, the country’s favourite savings instrument. But everybody wants them – hence the cry, heard every few steps, as you walk down one of the city’s main pedestrian shopping streets: “Cambio, cambio (change, change).”

 

Ergo, on the black market, the so-called “blue”, or unofficial, dollar has been soaring and has spawned different rates for, say, the “sky-blue” rate for property transactions, the “card” rate for purchases abroad with Argentine credit cards, which are subject to a 20 per cent government levy).

 

The parallel market is very small, but as Reuters quoted consultant and former finance secretary, Miguel Kiguel, as saying:

 

The blue market is very small in size but very big in terms of impact on long-term investment decisions. It’s not marginal.

 

Argentines react to many things with weary cynicism – there’s not much their rollercoaster economic history hasn’t already served up for them in the past. Indeed, parallel exchange rates are nothing new.

 

Nor have they been quick to disappear. As economist Luis Secco points out, in the following table, there was an average 132 per cent gap between the official dollar and the parallel dollar from 1971-76. From 1947-55, the average gap was nearly 83 per cent.

 

Ouch. But as he highlights, it’s not tenable to have two values for one good – and a good so pivotal as the US dollar. Still, the government is in no mind to devalue – yet. Watch for that Messi dollar soon.

 

3. ANTI-IMF STAND FORGOTTEN WHEN CASH ON THE LINE: ARGENTINA CREDIT (Bloomberg News)

By Eliana Raszewsk

April  26, 2013

 

When it comes to getting more dollars, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is more than willing to comply with the International Monetary Fund.

 

Argentina, which the IMF censured for underreporting inflation less than three months ago after three warnings over the past two years, last week authorized the deposit of $400 million with the Washington-based lender to increase the nation’s access to emergency cash. The move will boost Argentina’s special drawing rights that currently total $3.2 billion and comes as reserves, Fernandez’s main source for bond payments, declined to a six-year low of $39.8 billion.

 

Fernandez, who has also criticized the IMF for causing the country’s record $95 billion default in 2001, is using the bank to bolster her dwindling supply of dollars as a decade-long legal dispute with holdout creditors and her increasing influence over the economy leaves Argentina as the world’s least creditworthy debtor nation based on swaps trading. With overseas borrowing costs at 13.92 percent, Argentina hasn’t sold bonds globally in over a decade, prompting Fernandez to tighten capital controls and ban most dollar purchases.

 

“They’re doing this because they’re worried, and the special drawing rights helps them have more liquidity,” Claudio Loser, a former IMF director who now heads research firm Centennial Group Latin America, said by telephone from Washington. “Once the drawing rights are approved, they can use the money practically immediately, like cash.”

 

IMF Reforms

Fernandez’s spokesman Alfredo Scoccimarro didn’t return an e-mail and telephone calls seeking comment on whether the government plans to use the drawing rights.

 

The planned increase in Argentina’s deposits with the fund is in response to the IMF’s 2010 call for increased contributions from members as part of a “package of far- reaching reforms of the fund’s quotas and governance.”

 

The IMF proposal still needs the approval of the U.S. Congress.

 

Argentina used its special drawing rights in 2000, 2001 and 2003, fund data show. In January 2006, Fernandez’s late husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner paid back the country’s $9.5 billion debt to the fund, saying he wanted to be free of the IMF’s “dictatorship.”

 

South America’s second-biggest economy also received as much as $2.7 billion in a general allocation of funds by the lender in 2009, returning them by the end of that year. It currently owes nothing to the IMF.

 

No Improvement

Fernandez has tapped more than $30 billion of central bank reserves since starting to use the funds to pay foreign debt in 2010. The following year, she banned most purchases of foreign currencies to stem capital outflows.

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co estimated on April 18 that reserves will plummet to $37.5 billion by the end of this year, the biggest drop in a decade.

 

An increase in drawing rights won’t improve Argentina’s creditworthiness or reduce its borrowing costs, according to Aldo Pignanelli, a former central bank president. For that to happen, the government needs to reduce its fiscal deficit, which increased last year to the widest since 2001, and improve the accuracy of its statistics.

 

Investors demand 11.96 percentage points more to own Argentine bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries, leaving the nation as the only distressed borrower among 55 emerging markets tracked by JPMorgan.

 

Default Swaps

The cost of protecting $10 million of Argentine debt for five years using credit default swaps rose 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, to 2,239 basis points yesterday. That’s the most expensive of any country in the world and more than twice as high as Cyprus, which agreed on March 25 to a 10 billion-euro ($13 billion) loan from the euro area and the IMF after the nation buckled under the weight of its financial industry.

 

“Spreads can drop if the country improves credibility and begins to do the right things,” Pignanelli, who now runs economic research firm Saver in Buenos Aires, said in a telephone interview. “The way we are going, we’ll never be able to reduce rates.”

 

In February, Argentina became the first member country to be censured by the IMF for not providing accurate data on inflation and economic growth under a procedure that can end in expulsion. The government’s data has been questioned by economists since early 2007, when Kirchner changed personnel at the statistics agency.

 

Inflation Data

Consumer prices rose 24.4 percent in March from a year earlier, according to a report by opposition lawmakers that is based on estimates by independent economists, who face fines if they release statistics that differ from official data.

 

The statistics agency said inflation was 10.6 percent in that period.

 

The fund set a Sept. 29 deadline for the country to take “remedial measures” to improve the accuracy of the data. If it fails to do so, the lender can apply further sanctions, such as suspending its voting rights and barring the country from taking loans. The final step is “compulsory withdrawal.”

 

A central bank official, who asked not to be named because of bank policy, declined to comment on how an increased deposit with the IMF would affect reserves or if it planned to use the special drawing rights. An IMF official declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg.

 

‘Yellow Card’

When IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Sept. 24 that the lender may give Argentina a “yellow card” for failing to improve inflation data, Fernandez responded that the lender has always “picked on” Argentina.

 

“The IMF considers us a bad example, a bad pupil, we are the ones that said ‘no’ to each and every one of its recipes since 2003,” Fernandez said on Sept. 26 at Georgetown University while on a trip to Washington. “We don’t have anything against the IMF ideologically, but it led us into Argentina’s worst-ever tragedy.”

 

Since Kirchner’s break with the fund in 2006, Argentina has been the only Group of 20 nation that hasn’t allowed the lender to review its finances, which is mandatory for all.

 

If the U.S. approves the proposal, Argentina will be eligible to receive sufficient funds to ensure that it can maintain debt payments over the next few years, according to Alfonso Prat-Gay, an opposition lawmaker and former central bank president.

 

The government “is just trying to grab $1.6 billion so that it can take it easy, perhaps until 2015,” Prat-Gay told the lower house of congress on April 17.

 

4. ARGENTINA’S MAD DASH FOR U.S. DOLLARS (Busisness Week)

By Roben Farzad

April 28, 2013

 

If you find yourself driving through the suddenly packed condo canyons of Miami—lamenting not having bought during the property crash—shake a fist or two at the Argentines. So many of them ponied up 80 percent cash down payments on units (mortgage market be damned) that South Florida’s condo depression rather abruptly turned into another boom. Their thinking was defensive: Swap iffy pesos for dollars and store that value in U.S. property, out of the prying hands of the government back home.

 

Now, with Buenos Aires finding some rather innovative ways to crack down on the flight to dollars, that spirit of capital preservation has morphed into a panic in Argentina to get out of the peso, the world’s worst-performing currency. In the black market for dollar-denominated bonds, Argentines are spending dearly to circumvent President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s expanded limits on foreign exchange, and inflation that’s privately estimated at 25 percent. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the black market exchange rate is at 8.98 pesos per dollar, after touching a record 9.14 pesos last week. Compare that with the government’s official exchange rate of 5.17 pesos per dollar, and it’s easy to see why Argentines are so desperate to get out of the local currency in South America’s second-biggest economy.

 

The anything-but-cash mood is also helping the store-of-value appeal of Argentina’s equities, where the benchmark Merval stock index is up 23 percent this year.

 

To stem dollar flight, the Fernández administration is requiring Argentina’s national tax agency to sign off on all dollar purchases; in July it banned Argentines from buying greenbacks, except for travel. In March it hiked the tax on foreign credit-card purchases to 20 percent. Argentina’s foreign currency reserves, its main source of funding to service its debt, are at a six-year low of just under $40 billion.

 

“The first thing Argentines do when there is bad news is buy dollars as protection, and there’s no lack of things to be nervous about right now,” remarked Bank of Americs’s (BAC) Ezequiel Aguirre to Bloomberg’s Camila Russo. “The more the government tries to control the market, the more people will want to buy dollars.”

 

Argentines are particularly on edge this week over less-than-inspiring comments made by their top economic official about true inflation. When asked by a Greek documentary maker about the International Monetary Fund doubting the government’s economic statistics, Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino responded: “Look … I’ll repeat to you again. I think that, eh, it’s a … Can we cut this off? Sorry.” The interview, which took place in December, aired in Greece on Tuesday—and caught fire on Twitter this week, just days after a million people poured into the streets of Buenos Aires to protest Fernández’s policies. At a September speech at Georgetown University, she remarked that U.S. inflation data are misleading, too. September was also when IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Argentina could receive a “yellow card” for poor data-tracking and transparency.

 

According to JPMorgan Chase (JPM), this year Argentina’s reserves will see their biggest drop in a decade. Twelve years after the country’s record $95 billion default, it has the status of being the only distressed borrower of the 55 developing economies tracked by the bank.

 

In these circumstances, the government insists—literally: U.S. dollars are bienvenidos to stay awhile in Buenos Aires.

 

5. IN THERAPY? IN ARGENTINA, IT’S THE NORM (CNN)

By Elizabeth Landau

April 28, 2013

 

Buenos Aires (CNN) — Curled up in a fetal position, Vivi Rathbon would stare at the textured wallpaper of her analyst’s office as she spoke.

 

Sometimes she’d lie flat on her back with her arms dangling off the leather couch. Her therapist sat behind her in a recliner, out of her view. The door was locked for privacy.

 

This is how Rathbon, of Boise, Idaho, began her sessions of psychoanalysis when she lived in Buenos Aires after college. She went into therapy in 2011 because she suffered from intense depression and felt guilty about choosing to live so far from her family.

 

Before seeking help, she didn’t know that psychoanalysis, while viewed as somewhat obsolete by many professionals in the United States, is commonplace in Buenos Aires. When she first went to see her therapist, she had no idea what she was in for, and spent the first two weeks of sessions lying in silence.

 

“It was really awkward at first,” said Rathbon, 26, who moved to Argentina after graduating from college into a tough job market. “It’s very Woody Allen. You’re laying there, the analyst just says, ‘OK, talk.’ ‘Talk about what?’ ‘Anything.’ It’s free association. You just have to talk about whatever comes to your mind. And that’s actually a lot harder than you would think.”

 

It’s not just psychoanalysis that’s popular in Argentina. The country has the distinction of being home to more psychologists per capita than anywhere else in the world. Almost half the country’s psychologists are concentrated in the capital city of Buenos Aires.

 

Portenos — that’s what residents of Buenos Aires call themselves — say they don’t have the same stigma about seeking mental health treatment as Americans. Whereas mental health treatment in the United States might be seen as something to keep secret, it’s common in Buenos Aires to talk about emotional problems or what’s going on in therapy.

 

Going to a therapist just for a space to work through a certain issue might seem frivolous in some cultures, but it’s normal in Buenos Aires, said Daniela Frankenberg, a bilingual psychologist practicing there.

 

“In the expat community here, I see more and more people coming to my office who perhaps in their home country would have never done therapy,” Frankenberg said. “Here, feeling that it’s something that people do, (they) give themselves room to do that.”

 

Psychotherapy is a tool, “not only to cure emotional and psychological illnesses, but also tools to develop oneself as a person, with a greater quality of life,” says psychologist Modesto Alonso.

 

The numbers

 

Alonso’s office is on the ninth floor on a wide avenue in the Belgrano neighborhood of Buenos Aires.

 

With a gentle grandfather-like demeanor, Alonso talks about the most recent study that he and colleagues conducted on psychologists in Argentina. He emphasized that some of the figures are approximate, especially with regard to how many are in Buenos Aires, but they are the best that are out there.

 

A 2005 World Health Organization study ranked Argentina as the world leader in psychologists per capita, at 106 psychologists per 100,000 people. WHO’s numbers for 2011 don’t include the country, but Austria’s 80 per 100,000 would still pale in comparison to the 202 psychologists per 100,000 that Alonso and colleagues estimated for Argentina in a 2012 study.

 

Using data from 2011, his group showed that Argentina has about 81,000 practicing psychologists in the country, 46% of whom are in Buenos Aires. These numbers do not include psychiatrists.

 

By comparison, according to the American Psychological Association, based on 2012 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are about 33 clinical, counseling and school psychologists per 100,000 people in the United States — in line with estimates based on licensing data.

 

As expected, there are higher concentrations of psychologists in urban vs. rural areas. That also applies in Argentina; in Buenos Aires, there are 1,280 psychologists per 100,000 people, according to Alonso’s study.

 

More and more students are becoming psychologists, too — about 2.6 students are entering a psychology program for each one who graduates.

 

One of the soon-to-be psychology graduates is Agustina, 31, who did not want her last name used because her future patients may Google her name.

 

Every member of Agustina’s family goes to some kind of therapy, but, she’s quick to add, “It’s not that we are completely crazy or something. Nobody has big issues.”

 

She’s in group therapy, in which participants speak about their problems and a therapist mediates the discussion. In her circle at school, anyone who hasn’t been to therapy is seen as aberrant — it’s like “Oh my God, this person has issues,” she said.

 

Do psychologists still listen to Freud?

 

Why so many?

 

Gabriel Rolon, a prominent psychoanalyst who has written several best-selling books — the new Argentine TV series “Historias de divan” is based on his writings — said he sees the proliferation of psychologists in Argentina as good news.

 

While in other countries there may be a clearer division between physical and mental sickness, “in Argentina a very important battle was won, which was giving space to emotional health,” he said, and acknowledging that a person who suffers emotionally needs professional help, “just like when he has pain in his knee or another physical symptom.”

 

In his spacious white-and-wood home office, there is a particular sensitivity and poetry in the way that Rolon speaks about why the culture has evolved this way: That the people who created Argentina fled from war, hunger, ideological or religious persecution. Everyone had left something behind — relatives, friends, language, land — and so they brought with them a certain sadness and nostalgia.

 

“We became listeners interested in the pain of others, because we also needed people to be interested in our pain,” he said.

 

This theory, he admits, may be more poetic than real, but it’s true that modern Argentina has had a lot of influence from European immigration, particularly from independence in the 19th century until the 1950s, when immigration restrictions tightened during the country’s military dictatorships.

 

The United States also had European immigration during this time, and psychoanalysis was also “the thing to do” in America in the 1940s, ’50s and ’60s, said Albert Brok, a psychologist who practices in New York but grew up in Argentina. But this form of therapy faded as a fad, conflicting with ideas about pragmatism, will and work ethic that are dominant in American culture.

 

Many Argentines I spoke with agreed that their culture is one in which people talk about their personal issues more openly than in the United States.

 

“In other countries, people are more closed off about their problems,” Frankenberg said. “There’s much more of a push for people to resolve their issues elsewhere, like throwing themselves into work.”

 

People in Argentina commonly kiss one another on the cheek in saying hello and goodbye, expressing a warm feeling even between a dentist office receptionist and patient. They talk about their feelings. They sit in cafes without a sense of urgency, drinking café con leche with a small glass of soda water and eating small cookies.

 

Brok said the United States tends to have a culture more oriented toward shame and individualism, and an ethic of finding solutions to particular problems.

 

Smartphone apps become ‘surrogate therapists’

 

Argentina, he says, is more into introspection. The Argentine tango, too, invokes nostalgia and self-exploration, Frankenberg said.

 

The slowness of psychoanalysis in particular may make it unattractive in other cultures, Rolon said. No analyst can guarantee a result in six months, and therapy goes as long as it continues to feel right to the patient and analyst. Rolon has himself been going to psychoanalytic therapy for 25 years.

 

“Maybe a patient comes because of a problem. And when that problem is resolved, he realizes that he wants to continue working on other problems. In analysis, that is permitted,” he said. “In other kinds of therapy, when a problem is resolved, it’s over.”

 

PsychoanalysisFundamentals of psychoanalysis

 

The area around Plaza Guemes is nicknamed “Villa Freud” because of the concentration of psychologists’ offices there. Frankenberg says it makes sense for many professionals to have offices there because it’s “very safe and beautiful and commercial,” with easy access.

 

In the display window of Libreria Legenda, a bookstore on a side street near Plaza Guemes, three books were lined up together among a smorgasbord of historical and philosophical titles: Writings of Jacques Lacan, a book about famous cases of psychosis and readings on the psychoanalysis of Freud and Lacan.

 

You’ve probably heard of Freud, perhaps best known for his beliefs that behaviors could be traced to several stages of psychosexual development, and that the human psyche has components called id, ego and superego. He argued that the unconscious has a critical role in the formation of our concept of self.

 

Lacan is more obscure in America, but he has been influential in the European thinking about the psyche that made its way down to Argentina.

 

Among Lacan’s contributions is the “mirror stage,” the idea that when infants see themselves in a mirror, that leads them eventually to produce a sense of self or “I.” But this “self” image is also somewhat false — it is symmetrically inverted, and disconnected from the baby’s actual body, notes Joel Dor in “Introduction to the Reading of Lacan:: The Unconscious Structured Like a Language.”

 

If our sense of self is based on an illusion, then, that’s very different from the American ideal of individualism.

 

“Psychoanalysis is not only about understanding the will, but unconscious experience,” Brok said.

 

The fundamentals of psychoanalytic theory are still important in Rolon’s view. Sexuality is important in the structure of the psyche. There is an unconscious. There is also what Freud called a “death drive,” a self-destructive force that Rolon describes as relating to why people always make the same mistakes. Childhood is important — personality develops, Rolon says, within the first six or seven years of life — but that’s not the main thing that patients discuss.

 

“You’re going to tell about how is your job, are you in a relationship, what worries you, why did you come, why are you sad or preoccupied,” he said. “We’re going to speak about today.”

 

Unemployment takes a tough mental toll

 

Beyond Freud

 

Neither Rolon nor most other psychoanalysts today are trying to replicate Freud’s psychoanalysis exactly.

 

“I think what changes is the necessity to adapt it to the conditions of the culture from which the patients have come from — they are not alike — over 200 years,” Rolon said. “The culture in which a person lives has a lot of influence over what happens to them. And when the culture changes and the cultural rules change, necessarily this introduces a change for us in the clinic.”

 

Not all therapists in Buenos Aires are psychoanalysts, of course — you can find cognitive and behavioral therapists, as well as other schools of thought.

 

There’s also a financial question that makes modern psychoanalysis different. Traditionally, psychoanalysis patients would have five sessions per week, but in modern society that is both expensive and impractical. Now, most people would do one or two weekly sessions. “More than three — no one,” Rolon said.

 

Psychotherapy sessions can range between 50 and 500 pesos (about $10 to $100) per session, Alonso says.

 

Although it can still be expensive, depending on who your therapist is, Frankenberg says generally mental health care in Buenos Aires is accessible to more than just the elite. The good insurance plans pay for a certain number of sessions for particular therapists who accept them; some plans offer partial reimbursement, too.

 

Just like in the United States, psychologists cannot write prescriptions. The therapists I spoke with said, in their view, Argentine therapists are less oriented toward medication.

 

ADHD: Who makes the diagnosis?

 

Coming and going

 

Every psychologist has his or her own life story. Rolon grew up in a poor family; his father was a construction worker and his mother cooked outside the home when they needed more money. His parents encouraged him to study hard so that he could be better off. Today, he’s a psychology celebrity; I even saw two of his books for sale at a subway vendor.

 

“I think a great part of my need to listen … has to do with things that I saw when I was very young,” he said.

 

Word choice is very important in psychoanalysis, Rolon explained. He has had to adapt himself as well to patients from Spanish-speaking countries that use different idioms, words and turns of phrase.

 

During her two years of psychoanalytic therapy, Rathbon learned a lot about being patient and making changes “one day at a time.” She worked as a headhunter in Buenos Aires and maintained a website on the side about being an expatriate.

 

In January, she decided it was time to go home to Idaho. That’s where she is now, figuring out what to do next.

 

Saying goodbye to her therapist in Buenos Aires wasn’t easy.

 

“Your analyst is so in your head. How do you tell them that you feel like you’re finished?” she asked. “I told him that I was moving home and I thought it was a good breaking point. It was hard, it was emotional, but he understood.”

 

 

6. ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT FORCES JUDICIAL REFORM TOWARDS CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL (IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis)

By Laurence Allan

26 April 2013

 

The congressional debate over judicial reforms in Argentina has further exposed polarisation between the government and its opponents, and looks set to drive further intense legal and political conflict throughout 2013.

 

IHS Global Insight perspective

 

Significance

 

The Argentine Chamber of Deputies (lower house) yesterday (25 April) approved legislation that threatens the further politicisation of the judiciary in the country.

 

Implications

 

The legislation now has to be approved by the Senate (upper house), likely to happen in early May. That will almost certainly trigger legal challenges to the new legislation through the Argentine Supreme Court.

 

Outlook

 

The fierce dispute over the justice reforms is set to sharpen already polarised political relations in Argentina and act as a further potential flashpoint during an already heated electoral year.

 

Anti-judicial reform protest at the Congress building.PA16360749

The Argentine government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner yesterday (25 April) successfully pushed its proposed package of reforms to the justice system through the Chamber of Deputies (the lower chamber of national congress; see Argentina: 9 April 2013: ). The bill was passed by only the slimmest of margins, receiving 130 votes in favour, only one vote more than required in the 257-seat lower chamber. It also came only after a fiery all-night sitting of the Chamber of Deputies, during which the government chief whip Agustín Rossi almost came to blows with opposition deputies. The 130 votes in favour were composed of 112 from the governing Victory Front (Frente para la Victoria: FpV) itself, with the balance provided by traditional FpV allies from among smaller provincial and other minority parties. That vote in favour means that the legislation will now go through the same process in the Senate (upper house) of reading at committee then debate in the full chamber to which it was submitted in the lower chamber. Although the FpV does not have a formal majority in the Senate, a range of alliances with smaller players means that in practice the judicial reform bill could be passed by the upper house by 8 May.

 

What does the legislation propose?

 

There are a number of proposed reforms, but three in particular drove the most concerted resistance during the debates in the Chamber of Deputies. The first of these was a change to the system for selecting judges, which the government argues will “democratise” the process, but carries the very clear risk of allowing direct political control over the courts. Four of the seven current Supreme Court judges have been appointed since the FpV took power in 2003. The second was a proposal for tighter limits on the constitutional right of courts to issue injunctions against the government, while the third was the establishment of three new Courts of Cassation (which normally deal with cases affected by potential errors in law or legal process) for Administrative, Employment and Social Security, and Civil and Commercial Law. The last of those reforms aims to diminish the number of legal procedures that arrive at the Supreme Court to “lighten” its workload. The political opposition argues that this will allow contentious cases to become stuck in lower-level courts.

 

Opposition responses

 

Immediately after the marathon all-night congressional session that approved the reforms, some opposition legislators, including Elisa Carrió of the minority Civic Coalition (Coalición Cívica), took legal action to try to have the reforms declared unconstitutional, while others, including Socialist Party (Partido Socialista) deputy Alicia Cicliani, also declared their intention to seek legal recourse, not least because of alleged irregularities committed by the FpV in the voting process itself. Senior leaders in the main opposition party, the Radical Civic Union (Unión Radical Cívica: UCR), stated yesterday that the party would present an appeal on the grounds of unconstitutionality against the reform of injunctions – on the grounds that it contravenes human rights. Those reactions add to the complaints of a range of legal professional associations over the content of the reforms, all of which have focused on the high potential for politicisation of the judiciary as a consequence of the measures.

 

Outlook and implications

 

Those party political reactions look certain to spark several months of legal wrangles over the constitutionality of the reforms, meaning that once again a policy decision of the Argentine government could end up being decided in the nation’s courts. However, the imminence of mid-term congressional elections in October, which will see the renewal of half of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate, will also figure strongly in the opposition’s strategy. It will assess that if the reforms can be stalled until then, a potential change in the congressional balance could allow the reforms to be overturned. That, however, remains a high-risk strategy. The FpV will see 38 of its 116 deputies, and 9 of its 32 senators, end their mandates, with those seats now open to challenges from the opposition. On the opposition side, however, that opportunity is likely to be tightly limited by the electoral arithmetic. Although the FpV will see one-third of its lower house seats up for re-election, two of the main opposition parties face greater electoral risk. The main centrist opposition party, the UCR, faces re-election in two-thirds of its seats, as does the main anti-Fernández bloc within the Peronist movement, the Peronist Front, (sometimes known as Dissident Peronism). That reality foreshadows increasingly intense political and legal manoeuvring in the coming weeks as the two sides focus on congressional control from October 2013 onwards.

 

7. ROUSSEFF EXPECTS VALE TO SEEK DEAL WITH ARGENTINA FOR RÍO COLORADO PROJECT (Business News Americas)

26 April 2013

 

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has stressed that she expects compatriot miner Vale (NYSE: VALE) to find a way to come to an agreement with Argentine authorities regarding the company’s decision to suspend its Río Colorado potash project, in Argentina’s Mendoza province.

 

Rousseff’s comments came after a meeting in Buenos Aires on April 25 with Argentinean president Cristina Fernández to discuss political and commercial matters between the two countries, according to local and international press.

 

The Brazilian President gave no details about a possible deal. However, Argentina’s planning minister Julio De Vido affirmed that Vale should resume its activities in Mendoza.

 

Nevertheless, Marco Aurelio García, foreign policy adviser to President Dilma Rousseff said it is possible that Vale will reverse the decision to leave Argentina.

 

“We never left this possibility out,” Garcia added.

 

On March 11, Vale decided to officially suspend the project. “In the current macroeconomic environment the economics of the project are not in line with Vale’s commitment to discipline in capital allocation and value creation,” the company said at the time.

 

VALE

 

On the other hand, Vale wants to put an end to the negotiations with the Argentine government about the Rio Colorado potash project, CEO Murilo Ferreira said in an April 25 conference call with journalists to discuss Q1 results. Ferreira made it clear the company has no plans to go back and resume the investment.

 

“We hope Vale will leave Argentina in the most serene and peaceful way. We also expect the Río Colorado potash project to be deployed, but by other partners,” the CEO said.

 

On April 19, Argentina’s labor ministry opened a crisis prevention procedure for the dispute between workers, contractors, subcontractors and Vale in order to protect jobs at the suspended Río Colorado potash project in Mendoza province, according to a government release.

 

“We want to leave [the Río Colorado project] compliant with all employees and suppliers,” Ferreira said. “But the problem is that our subsidiary Vale Argentina does not have its own income sources and depends on contributions from the controller in Brazil. These commitments require fund shipments to Argentina and resources are being depleted in the country,” the CEO added.

 

Vale had been seeking tax breaks for the project to help compensate for soaring costs related to inflation and exchange rates, arguing that without them project costs could soar by 86% to US$11bn.

 

The Río Colorado project will consume US$611mn from Vale’s coffers this year in order to comply with local salaries and taxes so that the company keeps its mining rights in the area.

 

Vale, which is the biggest iron ore producer in the world, has been planning to become a leading player in the global fertilizer market by 2015.

 

8. CHILE’S CENCOSUD STRUGGLES WITH ARGENTINA CURRENCY RESTRICTIONS (Dow Jones Global News Select)

By Shane Romig

26 April 2013

 

SANTIAGO, Chile–Chile’s Cencosud SA (CENCOSUD.SN, CNCO), South America’s third-largest retailer by sales, is growing worried about Argentina’s restrictions on dollar-buying, which has stoked a black market where the Argentine peso is worth almost 80% less than the official rate.

 

Argentina has imposed limits on dollar-buying in a bid to stem capital flight, but with inflation running at an annual rate of more than 20%, demand for greenbacks comes as a hedge against the eroding purchasing power.

 

“We are all worried when there’s an official exchange rate of one dollar to five pesos and a dollar blue that’s equivalent to more than eight pesos,” Chairman and controlling shareholder Horst Paulmann said during his company’s annual shareholder meeting.

 

The so-called dollar blue refers to the unofficial, or black-market, peso, which as of Friday was at 9.27 pesos to the dollar, according to Argentine financial newspaper El Cronista. Mr. Paulmann didn’t provide details on how his company is managing the rates’ difference.

 

Argentina accounted for 25.5% of Cencosud’s consolidated revenue in the fourth quarter of 2012, behind the retailer’s home country, which accounted for 41% of sales.

 

Argentina also has set controls on capital repatriation and, in an attempt to reduce inflation, froze prices of supermarket products.

 

Mr. Paulmann said Cencosud, which has its Jumbo supermarkets in Argentina, is operating at a profit despite the capital controls and is reinvesting all excess cash in its operations there.

 

However, Argentina isn’t the company’s investment-plan focus, as just 3% of the $731 million plan for 2013 is earmarked for that country.

 

In addition to supermarkets, Cencosud has malls, department stores and home-improvement shops spread throughout Chile, Brazil, Peru, Argentina and Colombia. In 2012, it reported about $19.3 billion in sales, up 29% from 2011, and $570 million in net profit, down 1.6% versus the previous year.

 

While in Argentina Cencosud has to deal with financial restrictions, in Chile it will have to compensate its in-house credit-card holders for a 2006 fee hike. The Chilean consumer protection agency, locally known as Sernac, estimated Cencosud will have to pay around $70 million to the holders. The retailer is doing its own calculations and will announce a compensation figure in coming days, Cencosud Chief Executive Daniel Rodriguez said during the shareholder meeting. Mr. Rodriguez also reiterated that Cencosud raised fees in accordance with legislation at the time.

 

CAVALLO re Prat Gay

29 abril, 2013

http://fusion.google.com/add?source=atgs&feedurl=http://feeds.feedburner.com/DomingoCavallo

CONSTITUCIÓN INSERVIBLE

29 abril, 2013

Mientras la Corte Suprema de turno sea incapaz de frenar los abusos y tropelías del Presidente y  Congreso Nacional de turno, la Constitución no alcanza para protegernos del Estado Nacional, el máximo depredador. A los  enemigos externos, los inventan nuestros gobernantes bandidos, para procurarse votos de patrioteros engañados por la demagogia totalitaria que nos domina desde 1930.

DELITO DE EMISIÓN INFLACIONARIA

Nuestros Jueces se niegan a aceptar que la inflación es un delito imprescriptible, porque atenta contra los derechos humanos de la población. El responsable es el Gobierno, que aprendió que emitir papel moneda inflacionario proporciona poder y riqueza al Presidente de turno, quien quita recursos económicos a la sociedad, en beneficio de su propio propio de Poder sin límites.

La ley pena a quienes engañan vendiendo bienes que tienen menor cantidad o calidad que los establecidos. Adulterar pesas y medidas y calidades es algo tan grave,que la Constitución Nacional ya en 1853 estableció que correspondía al Congreso establecer las medidas legales de peso, volumen, superficie, distancia, …etc., junto con fijar el valor de nuestra moneda (oro o plata, había que elegir, y decidir cuanto pesaría la unidad monetaria futura). Los gobiernos ladrones aman gobernar sin moneda seria. Enero 2 de 2002 fue el logro Duhaldista: logró volver a tener un país sin moneda creíble, porque se le quitó al peso convertible su parte confiable: la obligatoriedad de que cada peso a emitir tuviese un dolar como garantía en custodia con el Banco Central, para garantizar a cada tenedor que siempre nuestro papel moneda sería redimible voluntariamente con un dólar norteamericano. Sistema que creaba confiabilidad en Argentina, y obligaba al Gobierno a ser prudente y no gastar mas de lo que constitucionalmente, el Congreso autoriza al poder Administrador, el Ejecutivo. Con emisión monetaria descontrolada, vemos que no existe limite para el Presidente de turno, quien debería controlar al Jefe de gabinete para que no provoque inflación. Pero la realidad es que el Presidente es quien no impide la emisión monetaria inflacionaria, porque eso le permite disponer de mucho dinero no autorizado por el Congreso. Y lo usa para beneficio propio personal, lo vimos cuando la reelección cristinista, que necesitó duplicar la cantidad de papel moneda que  circulaba. Con eso, los bienes de primera necesidad prácticamente duplicaron su valor en términos de dolares,la moneda con la que la gente de Argentina calcula si la economía argentina mejora  o declina, es decir, si estamos bien o mal gobernados

Con inflación, el empobrecimiento social avanza, con hiperinflación, el país se paraliza. Duhalde lo logró en su  breve anticonstitucional Presidencia, al quitar al dolar que garantizaba la seriedad del peso convertible, en tan solo siete meses – desde enero a agosto – hicieron falta cuatro pesos para comprar cada dolar que valía tan solo uno durante la convertibilidad. Bastó que el jamas votado Presidente anunciara su fracaso y llamara a elecciones, para que el peso no convertible se revalorizara algo, hicieron falta tres pesos por dolar, señal que la sociedad no quería Presidentes sin ser votados, por considerarlos ilegítimos  Y fue así como Duhalde uso el dinero del Estado para imponer a su propio candidato confiable, y eso explica porqué se empecinó con Néstor Kirchner, una persona con valores políticos parecidos: peronista y autoritario, de los que prefieren emitir dinero para enriquecerse…

MONOS CON IMPRESORA

Nuestros presidentes actúan como primates, al abusar de la emisión monetaria. a partir de Perón en 1946 hasta hoy, con excepción de una década a partir de Menem, que terminó con la corrupción radical y su criminal corralito bancario, que inconstitucionalmente prohibió por 90 días que la gente dispusiera de su dinero depositado en los bancos. Eso pareció inventado para destruir la poca credibilidad del Presidente, y fue aprovechado para el hasta hoy no investigado golpe de estado que pocos días después,  expulsó en helicóptero al Presidente, al estilo sudaca tradicional. Para imponer sin votos, en su reemplazo, como Presidente a Duhalde, el empapelador monetario que destruyó la estabilidad proporcionada pro la convertibilidad.

CORTE SUPREMA INFLACIONARIA

La mayoría de la actual Corte Suprema existe, porque Néstor Kirchner quería gobernar con su propio Tribunal, para asegurarse fidelidad. Por eso, un supremo Tribunal que considera normal que las deudas contraídas en dolares, se cancelen en pesos ya no convertibles, que valen muchísimo menos, no son Tribunal Ejemplar, sino pertenecer a la facción de Néstor, quien los propuso y los hizo aceptar por su propio Congreso. Jueces cuyas manos no temblaron al decidir que un dolar se cancelaba con pesos no convertibles, que valían mucho menos, para mi  son  personas inconfiables, por mas estudios, cargos y antecedentes que tengan.  La gente honesta cuando habla de un kilo, de un metro de longitud, o de un libro, sabe perfectamente que fue lo que las partes pactaron. Si son jueces probos, no lo dudan. Y si sentencian judicialmente lo contrario, la confiabilidad judicial se pierde. Y sin jueces serios, todo se pudre, se corrompe y el desejemplo baja, desde el Presidente y sus cortesanos, hasta la sociedad en la mayoría de sus componentes. La viveza criolla triunfa, los ladrones ganan, los honestos pierden. Los jóvenes nacen acostumbrados a que la inflación es algo normal, tipo las cuatro estaciones del año, y no advierten que el Presidente de turno roba, para tener mas para si, y de esa forma destruye el espíritu de libertad que pregona nuestra incumplida constitución  Sin dignidad en una Corte Suprema, no hay dignidad en la sociedad,a mediano plazo. Todo comenzó en 1930, cuando el militarismo fascista derrocó al Presidente constitucional, y la Corte suprema aceptó la validez de los actos jurídicos de los gobiernos “de facto”. Así empezó la decadencia, sobrevino el militarismo, la Constitución entró en el olvido, y se la utiliza al servicio del Presidente de turno.

El cristinismo no es confiable, seguimos sin reinventar la moneda seria, y eso muestra que involucionamos. El ahorro, el crédito y el trabajo se desprecian, toda vez que para el Amo gobernante de turno es mas fácil imprimir dinero sin respaldo y mentirnos con los indices: puede decir que el gobierno gasto mucho en construir viviendas, pero jamas se hicieron, aunque empresarios amigos cobraron el dinero destinado a producir cosas ausentes. Por eso se inundan los barrios bajos en La Plata: los intendentes y gobernadores incumplieron, engañaron a su gente. Hacen lo mismo que el Presidente, pero a nivel provincial o municipal,una escala menor, que permite que alguno – el mejor engañador – se convierta en  Presidente,  para desde allí engañarnos a todos los argentinos y a nuestros  acreedores internacionales, si es que consiguen embaucarlos.

UNA SEMANA

Si en una semana la Corte Suprema no se aboca urgente por la vía del “Per saltum” para frenar las tropelías legales cristinistas, las esperanzas de un cambio positivo desaparecen. Diez años o mas venimos viendo como nos mienten desde arriba, pero también nos engañan desde la Capital Federal, y a los provincianos, sus gobernadores.

Esperemos que Cristina dure hasta el final de su mandato:  nuestro país salvajizado siempre puede votar y elegir un Presidente peor. Y que por ladrón que sea un gobierno elegido libremente, será  mejor que otro gobierno  de facto, como el de  Eduardo Duhalde,  el inventor de los Kirchners…

D. CAVALLO re Lorenzino

27 abril, 2013
De: Domingo Cavallo <www@cavallo.com.ar>
Para: grafpi1@yahoo.com.ar
Enviado: sábado, 27 de abril de 2013 10:07
Asunto: Domingo Cavallo

Domingo Cavallo


Muy buenos documentales de la periodista griega Eleni Varvitsiotis

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 08:36 AM PDT

Ayer y hoy los diarios de Argentina se llenaron de referencias graciosas a las expresiones del desconcertado y asustado Ministro Lorenzino frente a la pregunta obvia que la periodista le hizo sobre la tasa de inflación que publica el INDEC y las múltiples evidencias, reflejadas incluso en un pronunciamiento del FMI,  de que la inflación real más que duplica a la reconocida oficialmente.

Pero el valor de los dos documentales va mucho más allá que el traspié de Lorenzino. En mi opinión los dos documentales narran de una manera objetiva los acontecimientos de nuestro país alrededor de la crisis del 2001 y 2002. Y aportan un material muy valioso para conocer los hechos y los actores a través de sus propias manifestaciones. Lamentablemente no está traducida la narraciónen griego de la periodista ni las preguntas y respuestas que hace y recibe en inglés. Voy a tratar de conseguir una buena traducción para subir a este blog, porque espero escribir varios artículos comentando, sobre todo, cómo actuó el FMI y cómo algunos de mis propios colaboradores y otros personajes que en el 2001 decían compartir mi percepción de la realidad, a punto de haberme pedido integrarse al equipo, ahora quieren aparecer como sagaces predictores de la inevitabilidad del default y de la pesificación compulsiva. Mientras tanto, para quienes quieran ver las documentales en su versión para la televisión griega, acá van los links: primera parte (hasta la declaración del Default) segunda parte (desde que asume Duhalde hasta la actualidad).

   
You are subscribed to email updates from Domingo Cavallo
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.
Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

FANS DE GENOCIDAS HABEMUS

27 abril, 2013

http://www.labotellaalmar.com/vercorreo_lector.php?id=4328

ONAINDIA ¿CRISTINISTA ?

27 abril, 2013

leyendo http://www.perfil.com/columnistas/El-microfono-indiscreto-20130407-0073.html el autor no me convence, Pepe Mujica habló adrede para que el mundo conozca su opinión personal,  estilo indirecto usado antes por otro Presidente oriental,  Jorge Bale, gran amigo de Argentina.Era  Presidente Argentino de facto, sin voto popular,  Eduardo Duhalde, inventor de su Delfín  Néstor Kirchner, ambos forjadores  de Cristina Presidenta anti uruguaya.

JUSTICIA CRISTINISTA

27 abril, 2013

ARGENTINE UPDATE – Apr 26, 2013

27 abril, 2013

EL MITO DEL “CAPITAL PREVIO”

26 abril, 2013

CHARLA 554ª DEL CURSILLO DE ECONOMÍA CRIOLLA – 7-02-03

EL MITO DEL CAPITAL PREVIO


            Impera entre políticos y economistas la idea de que para generar trabajo es imprescindible contar con “capital monetario” previo, que corresponde a la forma en que normalmente funciona el empleo y la producción en los países civilizados.
 
               Y creo que esto tiene relación con que todavía el grueso de nuestros políticos y economistas  no ha advertido la enorme involución cultural que significa habernos destruido la moneda y el sistema financiero. Si bien en forma transitoria, hoy sin dichos elementos podemos considerarnos una sociedad salvajizada, tipo aquellas  de muchos siglos o quizás milenios anteriores a la aparición de la moneda.
 
                 Y para intentar evitar  crean que hablo en broma, les recuerdo que durante milenios anteriores a la existencia de la moneda, el HOMBRE se las ingenió para trabajar sin contar con eso que hoy llamamos “capital monetario”. Es decir, que el trabajo humano existía, y se hacía en condiciones muy diferentes a las actuales, que supongo irían desde la esclavitud al trabajo de los siervos de la gleba.
 
                 Para desarrollar el tema, SUPONGAMOS por un momento que los doscientos mas conocidos políticos y economistas argentinos naufragan en una isla desierta, que tiene las mismas “riquezas naturales” de Argentina: agua, comida, madera, buen clima, …etc., pero donde NO HAY BANCOS NI DINERO NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA. ¿Que harían estos personajes? ¿Se morirían de hambre?
 
                  Estoy seguro que no, que rápidamente los mas hábiles se las ingeniarían para organizar el trabajo productivo del conjunto, y que de esa forma, el principio de la división del trabajo comenzaría a dar sus frutos. Y razonablemente, sobrevivirían relativamente cómodos  hasta que alguien los rescate.
 

HEMOS NAUFRAGADO 

     Si aceptamos que Argentina naufragó y que retrocedimos a la época de las cavernas, sin moneda ni sistema financiero, parece obvio que debemos permitir que funcionen las reglas de juego ancestrales (la esclavitud no, por el momento, mientras no sigamos declinando, pero si esto último sucede, no podremos evitarla) por las cuales entre los particulares se permitan todos los acuerdos posibles para agrupar el trabajo productivo. Es decir, libertad total de trabajo, donde impere la cláusula YOU ARE FIRED.
 
Básicamente, que quien pueda  alimentar a otro a cambio de trabajo (como sucede incluso hoy dentro de las familias rurales), pueda hacerlo si a ambos les conviene, porque es la mejor alternativa posible para el hambriento desocupado marginado. Y de esta forma, supongo que como nadie impediría este trato sensato propio de la antigüedad, en menos tiempo del que se supone,  todos se irían acomodando, y así por el principio de la libre división del trabajo mejoraría la situación económica de muchísimos argentinos. Esto implica olvidarse de los aportes jubilatorios, sindicales, …etc., por un tiempo considerable, mientras dure la situación de EMERGENCIA SALVAJE a la que están sometidos DEMASIADOS.
 
                  LOS ECONOMISTAS ASESORES
 

En los últimos días he visto por televisón a algunos asesores económicos de los candidatos Menem, Rodríguez Saa y López Murphy, los señores Pablo Rojo, Enrique Rodríguez y el Ing. Manuel Solanet. Y noto que todos tienen el MITO DEL CAPITAL PREVIO INCORPORADO,  porque ninguno explicó como haría para conseguir que los marginados desocupados trabajen si no aparecen previamente capitales nacionales o extranjeros en el mercado.
 
       Reconozco que mi posición no es en absoluto coincidente con las teorías económicas actualmente enseñadas en las Universidades prestigiosas extranjeras y locales, pero convengamos que los Profesores no han sido entrenados para resolver situaciones de naciones salvajizadas… Si Argentina estuviese como Carlos Menem se la entregó a Fernando de la Rúa, me callaría la boca, porque allí SÍ teníamos moneda y sistema financiero, y la cosa pasaba lisa y llanamente por desmantelar el Estado Totalitario que estaba quebrado pero nadie quería enterrar, y mucho menos los totalitarios Ministros de Economía.
 
       Pero quiero referirme rápidamente a la impresión recibida de los  tres asesores económicos mencionados.
 
        Si en vez de permanente estudiante fuese yo maestro, a Pablo Rojo le pondría un 8, porque me pareció muy sensato en prácticamente todo lo que dijo. Salvo en un punto: el insiste en que hay que poner nuevamente la convertibilidad en la forma en que la sugiere Steve Hanke, que sería dividiendo la cantidad de pesos por los dólares que pueda tener el Banco Central (supongo con un overshooting adicional, como creo dicen los economistas) y esto no me gusta porque implicaría estafar a aquellos ahorristas que quedaron pesificados. Prefiero nuestra propuesta de la Charla 371ª, que permitiría lo mismo sin robar a los ahorristas ni mendigar al Fondo Monetario, y que permitiría retirar los pesos circulantes en forma natural, canjeandolos una parte por dólares cash y el resto por bonos argentinos a quince o veinte años con la tasa Libor mas ¿5 puntos? para hacerla muy atractiva local e internacionalmente.
 
         La impresión que recibí de Enrique Rodríguez fue muy mala, y creía que Adolfo Rodríguez Saa estaba mejor asesorado: este hombre repitió aquello de que hay que generar trabajo privado – como dicen todos los candidatos – pero no supo explicar ni como se generaba el capital, ni tampoco como haríamos para reinventar  una moneda creíble para los argentinos.
 
          La del Ing. Solanet también  fue muy floja, porque me mostró que los muchachos de Martinez de Hoz no parecen haber comprendido que sin moneda somos salvajes, y mucho menos que es posible generar capital argentino a partir del trabajo de los marginados, sin necesitar endeudarnos con el extranjero. Recordemos que la decisión política de alquilar trabajo acumulado extranjero (capital es trabajo acumulado) en vez de alentar que lo produzca el trabajo de los criollos se inició en la época de Martínez de Hoz, y todavía sigue de moda. Por otra parte, la concepción dirigista totalitaria me pareció sigue vigente, ya que le entendí que el secreto pasaba por aumentar impuestos y bajar gastos, es decir, el criterio de los clásicos “tenedores de libros”, que se contrapone al de mi Estadista Soñado, que sostendría que el secreto es poner a los marginados desocupados a trabajar, suprimiendo todos los  costos    indirectos sobre su salario, para que puedan ser contratados en blanco conforme con las reglas de juego del Código Civil – es decir, suprimiendo para el sector de desocupados exclusivamente la vigencia de las leyes laborales que tanto miedo provocan a los eventuales empleadores.           Y como esto sería una Guerra a la Desocupación, infinitamente mas benigna y productiva que una guerra bélica contra nuestros países hermanos, y duraría como máximo tres años, les pido no me adjudiquen el mote de “negrero”, porque creo que es mejor trabajar ganando poco, que quedar desocupado, ya que al menos algo se gana y además la gente se entretiene, mejora su capacidad de trabajo y encuentra la dignidad de ganarse su sustento.

 
     Como resultado de oir a estos tres economistas, reconozco que quedé decepcionado del candidato Adolfo Rodríguez Saa, porque suponía que no contrataría economistas y que se las habría arreglado para pensar cómo hacer trabajar a los marginados sin capitales previos. (Ojo, cuando hablo de que trabajen SIN CAPITALES PREVIOS me refiero a que no hayan bancos, pero siempre ALGUIEN en algun lugar de Argentina todavía tiene unos pesos o dólares listos para contratar trabajo humano productivo si tiene algún proyecto sensato y se le quitan los costos indirectos y el miedo legal a convertirse en empleador).
 
      Como de López Murphy nada espero en materia creativa, porque lo creo un honesto  y eficaz administrativo que podría ser un buen Jefe de Gabinete de Carlos Menem, o mejor aún, su secretario de Hacienda (soy partidario de suprimir varios Ministerios, comenzando por Economía y por Trabajo), confieso que el Ing. Solanet me confirmó mi impresión sobre su candidato.
 
       Y en lo que respecta a Pablo Rojo, me quedé pensando que debe ser uno de los TANTOS individuos, argentinos o extranjeros,  (recordemos a Steve Hanke y Kurt Schuler, y seguro hay mas) que están trabajando en equipo con Carlos Menem para reflotar a Argentina, de modo que pareciera que éste sería el  que tiene las ideas claras: ya reinventó la moneda en 1991, así que del tema conoce. ¿Porqué no sería entonces capaz de encontrarle la vuelta para que los marginados se incorporen al trabajo productivo privado declarando algo parecido a nuestra Guerra Nacional a la Desocupación, que propusimos conjuntamente con el doctor Cosme Beccar Varela una año y pico atrás?, que puede leerse en nuestra página inicio cliquieando sobre CONVOCAMOS CON LA BOTELLA AL MAR       
             Notarán que de Lilita Carrió no opino, porque el populismo me parece un disparate (para ser benévolo con la dama). Y de Kirchner tampoco, porque en su actual posición de candidato de Duhalde, supongo tiene que mantener ciertas ideas propias en silencio, y sería injusto juzgarlo por su discurso de hoy.