ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA

ARGENTINE UPDATE – JAN 23, 2012

Germán Rafael Pirán — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 04:34:11 +0000

De: SUE LITTLETON
Para: Gaston Alejandro SAINT MARTIN ; German rafael
Enviado: viernes, 27 de enero de 2012 22:13
Asunto: MONDAY JANUARY 123, 2012

1. SOY MAY DROP ON U.S. ACRE GAIN, ARGENTINA RAIN, ALLENDALE SAYS (Bloomberg News)

2. ‘STOLEN BABIES’ TRIAL AWAITS U.S. DOCUMENTS (Womensenews.org)

3. ARGENTINA: MORE TRADE CONTROLS (Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Latin America)

4. ARGENTINE GROWTH SLOWS TO 7.6 % IN NOVEMBER (Reuters News)

5. ARGENTINA: COUNTRY PROFILE (Oxford Analytica)

1. SOY MAY DROP ON U.S. ACRE GAIN, ARGENTINA RAIN, ALLENDALE SAYS (Bloomberg News)

By Whitney McFerron

January 21, 2012

Soybean prices may decline as U.S. farmers boost planting this year, while rains in South America may improve prospects for crops that have suffered from dry weather, said Steve Georgy, a broker manager at Allendale Inc.

U.S. farmers may plant about 76.008 million acres in soybeans this year, up from 74.976 million last year, Georgy said at Allendale’s annual outlook conference in Crystal Lake, Illinois. With average yields, that may leave U.S. production at 3.299 billion bushels, he said.

Areas of Argentina may get as much as 2.5 inches (6.4 centimeters) of rain by Jan. 23, while storms next week may bring as much as 1 inch to parts of Brazil, forecaster Telvent DTN said yesterday in a report.

“With an increase in South America, and if we’re looking at an increase as well, things could go downhill,” Georgy said. “These rains that are coming in are extremely important right now for Brazil, Argentina and South America as a whole. We could still see a very good crop from South America.”

Soybean futures at $10.20 a bushel may represent a fair- value price, he said. March soybeans closed at $11.87 a bushel yesterday on the Chicago Board of Trade, up 5.9 percent since mid-December as concern mounted that dry weather would cut yields on South American crops.

2. ‘STOLEN BABIES’ TRIAL AWAITS U.S. DOCUMENTS (Womensenews.org)

By Kelly Hearn

January 23, 2012

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (WOMENSENEWS)–In a major trial here, the government is accusing 11 former leaders of the military junta of systematically appropriating infants belonging to some of the 30,000 citizens who were killed for being deemed “leftist subversives” during the so-called Dirty War from 1976 to 1983.

The trial, expected to close this year, is being closely watched by a group of women now in their 80s or 90s, known as the Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo.

For 30 years they have driven a very public effort to find stolen grandchildren and to bring their children’s killers to justice.

Now they are finding an ally in a Democratic Congressman named Maurice Hinchey, who represents the 22nd district of New York, northwest of New York City and bordering Pennsylvania.

Hinchey announced last week that he’ll retire at the end of this year. For now, he is seeking the declassification and release of CIA and Pentagon records that could help identify some of the missing grandchildren.

“We know that many people at the time went to the U.S. embassy and gave testimony about what happened to them,” said Estela Carlotto, president of the Grandmothers. “Thirty years have passed and we think it is time to release them.”

Hinchey in the 1990s proposed similar legislation that forced the U.S. government to admit its knowledge of a 1973 Chilean military coup that ended in the assassination of that country’s elected socialist leader Salvador Allende.

Last year Hinchey introduced legislation in the House that would have forced the declassification of the Argentine documents, but the measure failed. After that he wrote President Obama in November, asking him to declassify the records by executive order.

“Thousands of families have waited more than 30 years to learn the fates of their loved ones,” he wrote, “and we have an opportunity to make a contribution to truth and justice by helping to bring this troubling chapter in Argentina’s history to a close.”

4,700 Docs Declassified

The State Department in 2002 declassified 4,700 documents pertaining to the Dirty War.

Carlotto and her group’s lawyers believe that one of those documents proves there was not only a systematic plan to appropriate children, but that it was sanctioned by the highest levels of power.

That document is a 1982 memo by Elliott Abrams, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for human rights and humanitarian affairs, who is scheduled to testify here this month.

In that memo, Abrams wrote: “I raised with the ambassador the question of children in this context, such as children born to prisoners or children taken from their families during the Dirty War. While the disappeared were dead, these children were alive and this was in a sense the gravest humanitarian problem. The ambassador agreed completely and had already made this point to his foreign minister and the president. They had not rejected his view but had pointed on the problem, for example, of taking children from their adoptive parents.”

Carlos Osorio,director of the Southern Cone Documentation Project at the National Security Archive at George Washington University, said in a November interview that the Abrams memo is key.

“The Grandmothers are pointing to this little nugget as evidence that declassified documents help to bring some justice in Argentina then, and thus they want to call for CIA, FBI and Pentagon declassification on Argentina,” Osorio told Women’s eNews.

Lawyers in the case could not be reached to answer questions about the extent to which Abrams might be grilled about the memo.

Redacted Transcript

Carlotto said another document from the State Department contains a transcription of a conversation between a U.S. official and Reinaldo Bignone, the general who headed the military junta. Parts of the transcription had been edited out, she said. She added that in December the U.S. embassy in Buenos Aires provided her with the full version.

She said that in the transcribed conversation Bignone acknowledges the systematic appropriation of children. The attorney for Carlotto’s group is on vacation and did not respond to a request to see the document by press time.

The outcome of the case could have enormous personal consequences for some 400 to 500 Argentines in their 20s and 30s, who the grandmothers estimate to be living under false identities here.

Many of them are unaware that their real parents were murdered and that they themselves were given to military families to raise them as their own.

Until recently, that group included Victoria Montenegro.

In 1976, as a brutal military dictatorship here was jailing, torturing and killing dissidents, she was a tiny baby.

For years, growing up in Buenos Aires, she had no idea that a young couple named Hilda Ramona Torres and Roque Orlando Montenegro were two of those presumed subversives who lost their lives. As a young adult, Montenegro learned not only that they had been her biological parents, but that the man she knew as her father, Lt. Colonel Herman Tetzlaff, had murdered them and taken her as his own daughter under the invented name, Maria Sol.

Tetzlaff admitted to his deeds in 2000.

Coming to Terms

In 2010, Montenegro, after consenting to a DNA test, finally came to terms with what happened, changing her name along the way.

Montenegro told Women’s eNews that she supports Hinchey’s efforts to persuade Obama to declassify the records.

“There is sufficient evidence that the CIA was keeping records at the time about the dictatorship,” she said. “They can help us show that there was a systematic appropriation of children.”

This trial is just one of several seeking to document human rights abuses during the military dictatorship.

The trials began in 2007 after then-Argentine President Nestor Kirchner overturned two key amnesty laws that had long kept military officials from being prosecuted. As a result of the court cases, 802 military officials, police and civilians people have been indicted for crimes against humanity, and 243 have been found guilty, according to a report by the Argentine attorney general’s office

Fourteen trials are currently underway, and 10 more are set to start this year.

Not all Argentines are in favor of the trials.

Jorge Cadera, a 33-year-old taxi driver from Buenos Aires, echoed the sentiments of many when he said the country should look forward, not back.

“What does it help to bring the past up?” he asked. “With everything there is to fix, it doesn’t make sense to cause these problems. We should move on.”

Kelly Hearn is a freelance writer whose work has appeared in publications including The Washington Post, National Geographic News, The Christian Science Monitor and Yale 360.

For more information:

Hinchey Asks Obama to Declassify Information on Human Rights Violations of Argentine Military Dictatorship:

http://hinchey.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1772%3Ahinchey-asks-obama-to-declassify-information-on-human-rights-violations-of-argentine-military-dictatorship&catid=71%3A2011-press-releases&Itemid=1

3. ARGENTINA: MORE TRADE CONTROLS (Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Latin America)

23 January 2012

Already the most protectionist country in Latin America, Argentina has erected more trade barriers

Argentina has introduced more trade barriers in response to a steep rise in the import bill and the rapid narrowing of the trade surplus. Fresh restrictions on imports could hurt Argentinian businesses and also trigger new tensions with key trading partners. More seriously, the increased reliance on foreign-exchange, trade and capital controls will impede productive investment, exacerbate domestic shortages and bottlenecks, and hence sustain inflationary pressures. They could even backfire, causing a deterioration of the trade surplus if these shortages harm exports.

The latest measure will come into effect on February 1st, when all importers will have to start submitting sworn statements to the tax agency, AFIP (Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos), to get advance authorisation before goods can enter the country. The import operations will have to be approved by the interior commerce secretariat, headed by the controversial Guillermo Moreno. The government justified the appointment of this office as the agency in charge of imports (rather than the newly created foreign trade secretariat) with the argument that it must analyse whether these imports could negatively affect the domestic market. However, it seems to be an excuse to give Mr Moreno, who has been responsible for enforcing controversial price and other controls in recent years, the power to arbitrarily rule on each import operation.

The secretariat will have a term of three weeks to approve each request, but there are fears that this target will not be met, as has occurred with obligatory import licences. In addition, the criteria according to which officials will decide whether an operation is approved or not is unclear, opening the door to further discretionality in foreign trade regulation.

String of controls

The new rules, unveiled on January 10th, come on the heels of an increase in the tax on high-end imported vehicles, announced January 6th, and a slew of other measures in recent months designed to reduce demand for foreign currency and ease pressures on the trade and current-account balances. These include foreign-exchange controls imposed last October requiring individual and companies to seek approval from AFIP for dollar purchases in excess of US$250,000 and to prove the source of their funds; the removal of the exemptions that allowed oil and mining companies to liquidate export earnings abroad; and a decree obliging insurance companies to repatriate their foreign investments within 50 days, among other measures.

Besides saddling businesses and importers with more red tape and bureaucracy, such measures threaten to produce shortages of inputs for local manufacturers. Intermediate goods, fuels, and capital goods’ parts and accessories represent around 60% of Argentina’s total imports. The share of imported inputs in the production process differs according to each industry, but is particularly high in sectors such as the car industry, which is a main driver of manufacturing production and also an important exporter (cars account for 12% of total exports). Fears of future difficulties were fuelled in the second week of January, when Fiat (Italy) had to suspend production at one of it car plants, citing a shortage of parts owing to delays in the issuance of import licences.

Uncertainty about the details of the new controls have affected import payments, as some banks are not approving transfers abroad to cancel import bills

Imbalances are growing

Argentina’s imports skyrocketed by 33% in 2011 compared with the same period in 2010, according to preliminary official data. The overall trade surplus during the period sank 16.7% to US$11.9bn. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that Argentina’s current account, which had been in surplus since the 2002 maxi-devaluation, registered a deficit of nearly US$1bn deficit in 2012, a shortfall that will grow to US$5.4bn in 2012. The trend will accelerate in the subsequent years, as Argentina loses competitiveness and external demand remains tepid.

Loss of the current-account surplus, which has for the past decade been a driver of economic expansion and stability, is a serious matter for Argentina, given the government’s limited access to international capital markets, its need to use foreign reserves to repay its external debt and its extreme vulnerability to capital flight. (Capital flight surged last year, and bank withdrawals accelerated after new foreign-exchange controls in October.)

The deteriorating balance-of-payments dynamics will further reinforce speculation about peso devaluation. The government’s problem is that none of the alternatives for shoring up the external accounts appear attractive. It could allow a larger depreciation of the peso than it has to date, under the managed float exchange-rate system, in an attempt to restore currency competitiveness. But this would feed inflationary pressures further (private estimates put inflation in 2011 at 20-25%, versus the official figure of 9.8%).

More of the same

There is a high risk that the government will continue to resort to heavy-handed interventions and more foreign-exchange, trade and capital controls to contain economic imbalances. We do expect some modest fiscal and monetary policy tightening in coming months, along with a gradual reduction in the heavy burden of subsidies (some public utility cuts were already announced last November), as well as a modest peso adjustment. However, these measures may prove insufficient to correct imbalances, especially if the external environment deteriorates further.

Thus, Argentina faces increased risks in 2012. We expect its GDP growth to slow notably amid global economic uncertainty and lower commodity prices, from an estimated 8.7% in 2011 to 3.5% in 2012. The deceleration could be even more dramatic should the external environment, and hence Argentina’s terms or trade, worsen. Reduced growth and exports will cut into government revenues, sustaining pressures on the public finances. With the overall balance-of-payments eroding, Argentina still largely cut off from voluntary international financing and devaluation pressures growing, concerns will also rise about its future ability to meet its external obligations. Rectifying these imbalances will require deeper policy reforms than the “fine-tuning” of the demand-driven economic model being undertaken by the government at present.

4. ARGENTINE GROWTH SLOWS TO 7.6 % IN NOVEMBER (Reuters News)

20 January 2012

* Argentina’s sizzling growth starting to ease

* Private economists accuse gov’t of overstating expansion

(Adds fresh quote, context on GDP warrants)

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 20 (Reuters) – Argentina’s economy grew 7.6 percent in November from a year earlier, marking the slowest expansion in 13 months as sluggish global demand and fallout from Europe’s debt woes began to take a toll.

The EMAE economic activity index, a close proxy for gross domestic product, rose 0.8 percent in November versus October.

Latin America’s No. 3 economy is being driven by state-stimulated domestic demand, lucrative grains exports and factory output that relies heavily on the Brazilian market. But the incipient slowdown is expected to deepen this year.

The government says it expects economic expansion of about 5 percent this year, while some analysts estimate growth of as little as 2 percent.

Growth was 9.2 percent in the 12 months through November, the INDEC statistics agency said, although some private economists say real rates are likely 2 or 3 percentage points below that.

Fausto Spotorno of Buenos Aires-based consulting firm Orlando Ferreres, who estimated real growth in November of 3.1 percent year-on-year, said weakness in the key agriculture and industrial sectors was cooling the economy.

“Other sectors are losing speed too, though they’re doing so much more gently,” he said. “We should maintain this pace, I don’t think things are going to slow down much more.”

Argentina’s inflation data has been discredited for the last five years as too low to reflect true price growth, and official economic growth and industrial production figures are seen as being overly rosy.

October’s economic activity expanded 8.1 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent versus September, according to the EMAE, affected by slowing factory output.

November’s industrial production data showed the smallest year-on-year increase for more than two years.

November’s 7.6 percent rise in economic activity topped market expectations for 7.3 percent year-on-year growth in a Reuters poll.

Strong appetite for Argentina’s growth-linked debt instruments known as GDP warrants has eased in recent months due to the worsening global economy. Argentina has to make an annual payout on the warrants when economic growth tops a certain threshold.

5. ARGENTINA: COUNTRY PROFILE (Oxford Analytica)

January 20, 2012

Rolling Assumptions

Economy: Slowing growth

GDP expanded by 9.2% in 2010, the fastest rate since 2005, and by 9.5% in the first nine months of 2011. However, growth may slow to around 9% for full-year 2011, and around 5% in 2012, constrained by a poor investment climate marked by interventionist government policies. These have increased following the elections, with new constraints on repatriation of profits and dollar purchases imposed, together with moves to curb imports. A key area of concern remains inflation, which private analysts estimate at as much as 25.0% in 2011 and some 23.0% in 2012, figures far above the official data published by the widely questioned National Statistics Institute (INDEC), which reported 10.9% inflation in 2010 and 9.5% in 2011. Rising public spending in advance of the 2011 elections further fuelled inflationary pressures and undermined the fiscal position.

Politics: Post-election uncertainties

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was re-elected with 54% of the vote on October 23, some 37 points ahead of the second-placed Socialist candidate, Hermes Binner. Her overwhelming win, which allowed her Victory Front to recapture its congressional majority, will lead to greater centralisation in policy-making and even fewer congressional and judicial controls on executive power.

Investor interests: Increasing intervention

Government interventions to weaken the exchange rate have increased competitiveness but have also expanded money supply to the detriment of efforts to cool inflation. Continuing interventions in the economy, including possible further renationalisations of privatised companies, and price and trade controls will continue to discourage investment in some key sectors. The gradual lifting of tariff freezes in place since 2002 may help to ease energy shortages but will boost prices and is causing protests over sharp increases in public transport costs in particular.

International relations: Increasing marginalisation

Although Fernandez de Kirchner promised to make foreign relations a priority, her government has been somewhat isolated at the global level, punching below its weight, and trade disputes with China in 2010 saw soya exports to that country suspended. The use of non-automatic licences and the requirement of prior authorisation of imports is generating frictions with Brazil, a key trading partner. Successful renegotiation of the Paris Club debt could improve the country’s international position, although investment will still remain elusive.

Base Economic Data

Ratings

Fitch Ratings: B measuring Sovereign Risk (long term bond debt)

Moody’s Sovereign Risk: B3 measuring Sovereign Risk (long term bond debt)

Standard and Poors: B measuring Sovereign Risk (long term bond debt)

Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index: Rating: 2.9 Ranking :106

e=estimate f=forecast p=provisional i=incomplete figure (treat with caution)

ARGENTINE UPDATE, JAN 18…2012

Germán Rafael Pirán — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 04:25:42 +0000

De: SUE LITTLETON
Para: Gaston Alejandro SAINT MARTIN ; German rafael
Enviado: viernes, 27 de enero de 2012 22:11
Asunto: ARGENTINE UPDATE LAST WEEK

WEDNESDAY. JANUARY 18….

1. ARGENTINE TAX AGENCY RAIDS MONSANTO CONTRACTOR, FINDS SLAVE-LIKE CONDITIONS IN CORNFIELDS (The Washington Post)

2. ARGENTINA, PRINCESS CRUISES ANGERED THAT FALKLANDS BLOCKED SHIP WITH ARGENTINES FROM DOCKING (The Washington Post)

3. BUENOS AIRES ANNOUNCES BID TO HOST 3RD SUMMER YOUTH OLYMPIC GAMES IN 2018 (The Washington Post)

4. ARGENTINA’S MERVAL LITTLE-CHANGED IN VERY LIGHT TRADING (The Wall Street Journal)

5. PEOPLE POWER! MINING PROTESTS SPREAD TO ARGENTINA (Financial Times)

6. ARGENTINA INVESTIGATING COMPANIES ON FUEL PRICE-FIXING (Bloomberg News)

7. ARGENTINA DEMANDS SWIFTER DEVELOPMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL, GAS (Dow Jones International News)

8. ARGENTINA INVESTIGATES 5 OIL COMPANIES IN FUEL MARKET PROBE (Dow Jones International News)

9. ARGENTINA: FALSE ALARM (Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Latin America)

1. ARGENTINE TAX AGENCY RAIDS MONSANTO CONTRACTOR, FINDS SLAVE-LIKE CONDITIONS IN CORNFIELDS (The Washington Post)

January 16, 2012

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Argentina’s tax agency has raided a Monsanto Co. contractor and found what it calls slave-like conditions among workers in its cornfields.

The AFIP tax agency says Rural Power SA hired all its farmhands illegally, prevented them from leaving the fields and withheld their salaries. They had to de-tassel corn 14 hours a day and buy their food at inflated prices from the company store.

AFIP says it will hold the American agro-giant responsible for its contractor’s slave-like labor conditions.

Monsanto didn’t immediately respond to calls Monday to its headquarters in Buenos Aires and in St. Louis, which was closed for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Argentina’s congress last month gave farmhands an 8-hour day and other benefits long denied under a dictatorship-era law.

2. ARGENTINA, PRINCESS CRUISES ANGERED THAT FALKLANDS BLOCKED SHIP WITH ARGENTINES FROM DOCKING (The Washington Post)

By Michael Warren

January 16, 2012

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Princess Cruises said Monday that it is surprised and disappointed that the Falkland Islands government turned away its Star Princess ship because a small number of people on board have stomach flu.

The decision came as Argentina and Britain engage in a diplomatic row over the islands, which Argentina calls the Malvinas. Brazil, Chile and Uruguay have agreed to support Argentina by turning away any ship flying the Falklands flag. Hundreds of citizens of these countries are among the 3,562 passengers and crew on board.

Falklands government spokesman Darren Christie said it had to deny entry to the ship Saturday because some passengers had contagious norovirus, which the islands are ill-equipped to handle. The decision was made by the Falklands’ chief medical officer in consultation with a microbiologist in Britain, Christie said.

“An outbreak in the Falkland Islands would put enormous pressure on our limiated medical resources, and jeopardize other scheduled cruise visits,” his statement said.

Princess Cruises called the decision “totally unwarranted” and unscientific, and said it runs against international health policy.

“No Princess ship has ever been denied entry into a port based on incidences of ill passengers and crew onboard,” said Julie Benson, the company’s vice president for public relations.

She said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Britain’s Health Protection Agency and other international health organizations encourage ports to provide support to vessels arriving with ill people.

Benson said a total of 74 passengers and crew, about 2 percent of those on board, had been reported ill. Of those, 20 people now have symptoms, which falls short of the 3 percent that the CDC would consider an outbreak, her statement said.

Argentina’s foreign ministry said that the cruise ship complied with health regulations at its previous ports of call in Chile and Argentina and that it hopes the decision isn’t “only the latest hostile act against tourists of various nationalities, including Argentine citizens who have the simple desire and hope of getting to see the Malvinas Islands.”

The ship had planned to dock in Port Stanley in the middle of its 14-day South America cruise from Valparaiso, Chile, to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The ship’s next port of call is Tuesday in Buenos Aires, followed by Montevideo, Uruguay. The cruise ends Jan. 21.

3. BUENOS AIRES ANNOUNCES BID TO HOST 3RD SUMMER YOUTH OLYMPIC GAMES IN 2018 (The Washington Post)

January 14, 2012

INNSBRUCK, Austria — Buenos Aires has announced a bid to host the third Summer Youth Olympic Games in 2018.

Argentine Olympic Committee President Gerardo Wertheim says “we believe that Buenos Aires would be an excellent host city for this exciting new addition to the Olympics sports calendar.”

Wertheim handed over a letter confirming the bid to International Olympic Committee President Jacques Rogge on the opening day of the inaugural Winter Youth Olympic Games in Innsbruck.

Other cities to have announced their bid for the 2018 Youth Games include Monterrey, Mexico; Medellin, Colombia; Abuja, Nigeria; and Kaspiysk, Russia.

IOC will chose the host city in June 2013.

4. ARGENTINA’S MERVAL LITTLE-CHANGED IN VERY LIGHT TRADING (The Wall Street Journal)

By Taos Turner

January 16, 2012

–Merval index largely unchanged in very light trading

–Peso little-changed against the U.S. dollar

BUENOS AIRES –Argentina’s Merval stock index was largely unchanged Monday as investors sat on the sidelines on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the U.S.

The index rose 0.3% to 2,754.57 points in volume totaling ARS15.5 million ($3.6 million).

The aluminum producer Aluar Aluminio Argentino SAIC (ALUA.BA, AAARF) led the gains by rising 2.8% to ARS2.97.

The financial conglomerate Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL.BA, GGAL) rose about 1% to ARS3.5. It was the most traded stock of the day in terms of volume at around ARS1.1 million.

The oil and gas company YPF SA (YPFD.BA, YPF) led the declines by falling 3.9% to ARS164.50.

Earlier Monday the government said it is investigating accusations that five oil companies acted as a cartel and abused their dominant positions in the wholesale diesel market to inflate prices for the transportation industry.

Transportation Secretary Juan Pablo Schiavi said the investigation is being handled by antitrust agency CNDC following accusations by trade groups representing bus and trucking companies.

The five companies named in the probe are Spain’s Repsol YPF SA (REPYY, REP.MC), Shell Argentina SA, Petrobras Argentina SA (PZE, PESA.BA), Esso Argentina SA and Oil Combustible SA.

Schiavi said Repsol YPF, through it local subsidiary YPF SA (YPF, YPFD.BA), supplies 65% of the diesel used by public transportation firms, followed by Shell with 20% and Esso with 9%.

“We associate the decline at YPF with the government’s announcement,” said Mayoral brokerage trader Ruben Pascuali.

Shares of Petrobras Argentina fell 2.8% to ARS6.51.

The price of the benchmark peso-denominated 2033 was unchanged at ARS130, yielding 12.7%.

The peso closed at ARS4.3165 to the U.S. dollar on the MAE local foreign-exchange wholesale market versus ARS4.3115 in the previous session.

Last year the peso weakened 7.6% against the dollar.

5. PEOPLE POWER! MINING PROTESTS SPREAD TO ARGENTINA (Financial Times)

By Jude Webber

January 17, 2012

Argentina is striving to attract foreign investment and its mineral potential – in mining, and energy – offer attractive possibilities. But a social conflict playing out in the northwestern province of La Rioja could have be a taste of things to come as environmentalists and increasingly local communities seek to halt extractive projects that could bring in millions in investment but, they say, at too high a price for their livelihoods.

Residents in the northwestern Argentine town of Famatina are on a war footing, determined to oust Canada’s Osisko Mining Corporation from the Famatina gold project that they say will poison their scarce water supplies and ruin their environment.

The open-pit project has long been a subject of fierce controversy. Barrick Gold Corp, the world’s top bullion producer, tried to develop the project but finally threw in the towel in 2007 after the town joined ranks against it under the slogan “Don’t touch Famatina”. That slogan has been reprised and locals say opposition in the town is virtually 100 per cent of the 5,800 population, with only a couple of people having been found to defend it. The town’s mayor and priest are firmly opposed to mining.

Since January 2, protesters have been blocking the only route up to the site, at an altitude of nearly 2,000 metres. The mine previously been explored and Osisko said last August it was planning to invest an initial $10m in the project, in partnership with the La Rioja provincial mining company, EMSE.

January 16 was the deadline for Osisko to start exploration work, and although no sign had been seen of company representatives since mid-December, residents were taking no chances. Some 3,000 people turned out in a protest “caravan” and had a picnic at the roadblock, in the blazing sun and more than 40 degree heat, waiting.

“There is no social licence for any mega mining project in Famatina and La Rioja,” Carina Díaz Moreno, a spokeswoman for one of the protest groups that has been campaigning against mining since the days of Barrick, told beyondbrics. “No matter how many contracts (La Rioja provincial governor Luis) Beder Herrera signs, people won’t give him social licence,” she said. “We will be keeping the blocade until Beder Herrera gives in.”

He shows no sign of doing so. The provincial governor, an ardent supporter of Cristina Fernández, the president, performed a spectacular U-turn on the issue in 2007, switching from a mining opponent when he was deputy governor to a supporter after he had ousted former governor Angel Maza in what analysts say was a palace coup. He says mining is one of the only prospects for his poor province – a place in which, in fact, 80 per cent of the workforce is employed by the state. Tetra Pak, the Swedish packaging maker, has a plant in the province but there is little industry and some farming, but as much of the land is desert, it is not prime agricultural land either. As a result, Beder Herrera has embraced mining and though it is still in its infancy, there are a number of uranium exploration projects in the province, which also draw local wrath.

Protesters, who have organised into citizens’ assemblies, have been emboldened by their success in ejecting Barrick and, convinced they will triumph this time too, say they will wait as long as it takes. What is more, Díaz Moreno says the opposition has grown even stronger since the days of Barrick. “You can’t compare,” she said of Monday’s turnout, compared with protests five years ago.

Community opposition to mining is the flip-side of the global commodities boom as people in emerging market countries demand environmental responsibility and a greater share of booming prices, and it is certainly not confined to Famatina.

Peru, with its vast mineral riches and large indigenous and poor communities, has been particularly affected by battles for social licence. Nearly a decade ago, in 2003, a fruit-producing town, Tambogrande, in northern Peru halted a major gold and copper project. More recently, Newmont Mining’s Conga project has been beset by serious protests.

Also in Peru, Southern Copper’s Tia Maria project was scrapped after the government ruled it “unacceptable” following protests. Bear Creek of Canada saw its Santa Ana silver project shot down and as the protests which killed it fanned out into the jungle, the Inambari dam planned by Brazilian consortium Egasur was cancelled. Another dam project, Tambo-40, was scrubbed by Odebrecht following indigenous protests.

Unlike Peru, Argentina sees itself as a “country with mining” rather than a “mining country”, but it is home to some world-class projects, such as Barrick’s Pascua Lama, which straddles the Andes into Chile, and Vale’s major potassium project in Mendoza. The industry in Argentina is far more open than, say, the tightly-regulated energy sector, and as long as minerals prices remain attractive, Argentina is likely to remain a lure.

Osisko could not be reached for comment as the uneasy wait continued in Famatina. It looks like being a long fight. And it is a fight that could well be replicated as Argentina seeks to exploit what promise to be the world’s third biggest shale gas riches.

6. ARGENTINA INVESTIGATING COMPANIES ON FUEL PRICE-FIXING (Bloomberg News)

By Bill Faries and Carlos Manuel Rodriguez

January 16, 2012

Argentine energy companies including YPF SA and Petrobras Argentina SA (PESA) are being investigated by the country’s antitrust agency for fuel price-fixing, Planning Minister Julio De Vido said.

Argentina’s transport association filed a complaint about fuel prices last week, De Vido said today in a press conference in Buenos Aires. The government will establish a committee to investigate the complaints and potential solutions in addition to the work of the national antitrust commission.

Local units of Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) were included in the complaint, which said the companies were acting as a cartel, De Vido said. Some refining companies are artificially increasing wholesale fuel prices, the transportation ministry said today in a separate presentation.

In the report, entitled dominant “Position Abuse and Cartelization of the Fuel Market,” the ministry said that some refining companies are charging as much as 30 percent more for wholesale fuel than what they charge in gas stations, affecting transport companies in particular.

“The government is filing this complaint to defend the purchasing power of the Argentines and the competitiveness of the economy as a whole,” Amado Boudou, the country’s Vice President, told reporters today in Buenos Aires.

Local spokesmen for Repsol YPF, Shell, Petrobras and Exxon didn’t immediately comment about the investigation.

Shares of YPF SA (YPFD), Argentina’s largest refiner, fell 2.9 percent to 166 pesos in Buenos Aires trading. Petrobras Argentina fell 0.3 percent.

7. ARGENTINA DEMANDS SWIFTER DEVELOPMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL, GAS (Dow Jones International News)

By Ken Parks

16 January 2012

Argentina’s powerful planning minister signalled Monday the government isn’t willing to make price concessions to oil and gas companies in exchange for swifter development of the country’s vast unconventional hydrocarbon resources.

Companies like YPF SA (YPF, YPFD.BA) have made a number of important discoveries of shale oil and gas in the last year. But analysts say the lack of price incentives and clear rules will likely delay the massive boom in investment and production witnessed in North America’s unconventional oil and gas fields.

“We are prepared to discuss prices on new production over time but those prices are going to apply at the moment that said fuels are produced and not before. We aren’t going to accept any type of conditions,” Minister Julio De Vido said at a press conference.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina ranks No. 3 in the world in terms of technically recoverable shale gas resources with 774 trillion cubic feet of gas.

Argentina is also thought to hold large quantities of shale oil. Last November, YPF said it discovered 927 million barrels of unconventional oil in hydrocarbon rich Neuquen Province.

Unconventional oil and gas is trapped in tight sand or shale formations.

That potential has attracted a number of international oil and gas companies, including France’s Total SA (TOT), Apache Corp (APA), and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM).

De Vido said the federal government is working with the provincial government and producers in Neuquen to develop a time frame for the production of unconventional oil and gas.

“We want that oil and gas put in production quickly because the Argentine economy needs it,” he said. “We think at the end of 2013 we could start to see some results.”

The government of President Cristina Kirchner forces companies to sell natural gas produced from conventional sources on the domestic market at prices that are significantly below international prices.

To attract shale gas investment, the government launched the Gas Plus program in 2008 that allows producers of unconventional gas to charge significantly higher prices. But oil company executives say even those higher prices are too low to spark an unconventional gas bonanza.

Producers have signed Gas Plus contracts with prices ranging from $3.50 per million British thermal units–about 1,000 cubic feet–to $5.50/MMBtu. In comparison, YPF sold conventional gas in the domestic market for an average price of $1.96/MMBtu in 2010.

De Vido said the exploitation of shale gas and oil in Neuquen Province alone could create tens of thousands of jobs.

“We don’t want these reserves to just benefit the balance sheets of the oil companies, rather they should be used to grow the economy. And of course the oil companies will get the profitability they merit,” he said.

8. ARGENTINA INVESTIGATES 5 OIL COMPANIES IN FUEL MARKET PROBE (Dow Jones International News)

By Ken Parks

16 January 2012

–Antitrust agency acting on an accusation that five oil companies overcharged for bulk sales of diesel fuel

–Has power to order firms to divest assets, can levy fines of up to ARS150 million in cases of anticompetitive behavior

–Planning and Economy ministries plan to coordinate “to resolve” the problem

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)–Argentina has launched a probe into the country’s wholesale fuel market following accusations that five oil companies colluded or abused their dominant positions to overcharge buyers.

Transportation Secretary Juan Pablo Schiavi said inflated wholesale prices might have cost transportation companies an additional 3.5 billion pesos ($812 million) a year.

“That is a figure that diminishes the competitiveness of the transportation system,” he said in a press conference.

Schiavi said the antitrust agency CNDC is acting on an accusation made earlier this month by trade groups representing bus and trucking companies who complained that oil companies were charging transportation firms more for diesel fuel purchased in bulk than the fuel sold at service stations.

The five companies named in the probe are Spain’s Repsol YPF SA (REPYY, REP.MC), Shell Argentina SA, Petrobras Argentina SA (PZE, PESA.BA), Esso Argentina SA and Oil Combustibles SA.

Schiavi said that Repsol YPF, through it local subsidiary YPF SA (YPF, YPFD.BA), supplies 65% of the diesel used by public transportation firms, followed by Shell with 20% and Esso 9%.

Spokesmen for YPF and Petrobras Argentina couldn’t be reached for comment. Esso and Shell declined to comment.

The CNDC has the power to order firms to divest assets and can levy fines of up to ARS150 million in cases of anticompetitive behavior.

The fuel market probe coincides with the federal government’s decision last November to start cutting energy and public utility subsidies for wealthy individuals and a broad range of industries.

President Cristina Kirchner, who started her second term in December, has spent billions of dollars to provide cheap water, gas, electricity, fuel and public transportation to consumers and businesses since she first took office in 2007.

But faced with a shrinking fiscal surplus and expectations of slower economic growth this year, Kirchner has taken steps to curtail her government’s skyrocketing subsidy bill.

In parallel with the CNDC’s investigation, Planning Minister Julio De Vido said his ministry and the Economy Ministry will coordinate “to resolve” the problem.

“Given that transportation is subsidized, we don’t want this abuse of market dominance to take resources the government, through the budget approved by Congress, allocates to 40 million Argentines,” he said.

Fuel prices in Argentina are typically below international prices as a result of government regulations.

Speaking at the press conference, Vice President Amado Boudou attacked critics who say Argentina should allow domestic fuel prices to rise to international levels.

“We don’t agree and won’t follow those type of measures because Argentina’s energy system has its own cost structure,” he said.

9. ARGENTINA: FALSE ALARM (Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Latin America)

16 January 2012

News that the president does not have cancer will return the focus to the economic and policy challenges ahead

Government authorities announced on January 7th that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who underwent surgery to remove her thyroid gland on January 4th, did not have cancer after all. The news that the initial diagnosis had been based on a rare “false positive” will surely have been a relief to her and her supporters. The revelation of her illness on December 27th had jolted the political scene less than a month after Ms Fernández took the oath of office for a second term. Now, the uncertainty that a diagnosis of cancer had generated will dissipate, and the administration will again turn its focus to the economic and policy challenges ahead.

The initial diagnosis pointed to early-stage thyroid cancer, and the gland was removed successfully on January 4th. However, subsequent testing revealed no cancer cells. Still, Ms Fernández will take three weeks off to convalesce. During this period, the vice-president, Amado Boudou, will exercise the legal functions of the president, in accordance with the constitution. Ms Fernández will then resume all presidential duties.

Even if the cancer diagnosis had been confirmed, medical experts say this form of the disease has a high recovery rate when detected early.

Ms Fernández won re-election by a large margin last October and enjoys high levels of popularity. And her presidency is well consolidated. The smooth transfer of power to Mr Boudou served to limit political uncertainty to some extent in recent days. Nonetheless, speculation was already brewing over whether such an illness might have hampered the president’s ability to control the policy agenda over the medium term, and this stoked concerns about a potential succession.

Slowdown on the way

The president’s health scare also briefly diverted attention from some of the key economic challenges facing Argentina this year. Although Ms Fernández will now have to take hormone medication daily, she should be able to return to normal activity at the end of January. Among her first priorities is to seek to minimise the impact on Argentina of declining global economic demand. She will also be under increasing pressure to address tightening fiscal accounts and continued high inflation.

The 2012 budget assumes that the economy will grow by 5.1% in 2012, down from an estimated 8% in 2011. However, this projection appears optimistic, and is well above the Economist Intelligence Unit’s own forecast of 3.5% for this year.

We expect concerns over export competitiveness to grow, with business and consumer confidence also knocked by the government’s imposition last year of capital and foreign-exchange controls in an attempt to stop capital flight.

We still consider, moreover, that there are downside risks to our forecasts, with Argentina among the most vulnerable countries in the region to a further deterioration in global conditions (including a potential break-up of the euro zone). In particular, a weakening of Argentina’s key trade partners, Brazil and China, or a sharp drop in commodity prices would set the stage for further forecast downgrades and a sustained period of volatility.

Another problem is the recent drought conditions that have damaged corn production and threaten to severely reduce soy output if rains do not come soon. Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn exporter and third-largest seller of soybean. Soy is the biggest export product overall, and tax revenue from these sales is a major source of fiscal income for the government.

Inflation conundrum

Perhaps of even greater concern to the government will be the inflation rate, which the 2012 budget anticipates to come in at 9.2%. This is well below the 25-30% estimated by local independent analysts, who argue that the recently revised methodology of the official statistics agency does not accurately reflect surging prices. This belief is widely held and was reflected in a bad-tempered wage negotiation discussion with labour unions in late 2011, in which the powerful General Workers’ Federation broke ranks with the government to demand wage rises in line with unofficial inflation.

The administration’s ongoing strategy is to deny the unofficial inflation rate, while at the same time allowing some unions to negotiate pay rises at the higher rate. This has resulted in high general inflation expectations, further helping to drive up prices. Ms Fernández may hope that the slower rate of economic growth in 2012 will allow inflation to moderate. However, she is unlikely to introduce new measures to directly combat inflation. On the contrary, cuts announced late last year to utilities subsidies, and the imposition in January of cuts in subsidies to the public metro system, will further stoke price pressures.

Extending executive reach

Whereas concern about the president’s health had threatened to serve as a destabilising factor on the political scene, the latest news will allow Ms Fernández to continue to consolidate her control over core government institutions. As part of this strategy, in mid-December the legislature approved the extension of the law of economic emergency, which has now been in place since 2003. This will permit the president to maintain her current sweeping powers to legislate on economic matters, easing the prospect of legislative opposition in the short term.

The public sympathy Ms Fernández garnered following the initial news of her cancer (in the same way that her popularity surged following the death of her husband, Néstor Kirchner, in October 2010), along with the smooth handing of power to her vice-president, may serve to bolster her position further.

¿GOBERNANTES SENSATOS Y HONESTOS?

Germán Rafael Pirán — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 20:25:11 +0000

Los gobernantes son sospechados de insensatez y deshonestidad, no solo aqui, sino en el exterior. En algunos paises, la sospecha es menor o no existe, pero eso sucede en la minoria de los casos. Las noticias periodisticas muestran que los gobernantes y sus familiares, especialmente sus mujeres, gastan demasiado, a costa del pueblo al cual simulan servir. O realmente sirven.

Hoy, en Argentina, con el tema minero, las sospechas recaen sobre los gobernadores andinos, donde depende de ellos controlar o no, si las extracciones mineras son sanas y saludables, y si los mineros importantes, que serian las empresas internacionales, no engañan y exportan oro, por ejemplo, sin declarar. Lo cual seria facil, falsificando las declaraciones juradas o coimeando a los inspectores oficiales. Cosa que tambien se dice sucede con las grandes cerealeras, que envian mas granos de lo que los manifiestos declaran, con lo cual el Estado ladron argentino termina siendo a su vez robado. Y la gente, el pueblo llano, sospecha que hay funcionarios corrutos, que jamas son denunciados, o eventualmente, metidos en prision en forma definitiva, por condena. Es decir, que robar desde el Estado, para los argentinos es lo normal. Y cuando se trata de oro, en la Cordillera de los Andes, suponemos existen cantidades gigantescas que seran finalmente extraidas, con o sin la voluntad de los pobladores.

Ojo, no escribo esto por criticar a los gobernadores, sino para resaltar cuan bajo es el concepto del pueblo en general, sobre la honestidad de los gobernantes, sean municipales, provinciales o nacionales, a lo largo de los años de vida que llevo, que no son pocos. Y la historia muestra que eso siempre ha pasado: hasta el mismisimo general Peron fue condenado por tribunales, por muchos motivos, durante su exilio, y a su regreso, salio la ley del olvido. Y eso, parecido al pacto mafioso del silencio, es lo que hoy hace suponer que cada vez que existen problemas en las provincias cordilleranas, es porque hay algun contrabando negociado por un gobernador provincial. Al igual que cuando se decia que los gobernadores vecinos a Paraguay y Bolivia solian exportar cosas robadas, o permitir su ingreso, costumbre que se dice sigue vigente aun, pese a los controles supuestamente enormes.

LA INSEGURIDAD DE GARRE

Toda esa desconfianza se nota, claramente, cuando nos enteramos que la Policia Federal retira su apoyo a los que estamos en forma permanente o transitoria, en el territorio de la ciudad autonoma de Buenos Aires. Porque nuestra ciudad es NACIONAL, es propiedad de todos los argentinos y de hecho, de nuestros visitantes, que merecen ser protegidos por la policia Federal, ya que aqui esta el asiento del Gobierno Federal y de las embajadas de los paises amigos. La despreocupacion de la Presidenta en torno a la vigilancia de los hospitales de la ciudad, es sorprendente. O mejor dicho, es de hecho, abandonar a la poblacion porteña a su propia suerte, ya que la policia metropolitana de la ciudad es a todas luces insuficiente, por falta de capacidad y dinero, para custodiar una ciudad FEDERAL tan importante como la nuestra.

Abandonar a la gente, en vez de proporcionarle vigilancia, es muestra de irresponsabilidad estatal a nivel nacional. Cristina podra ser simpatica, y tendra otros problemas, pero la responsable de que Garre este debilitando la vigilancia porteña, es ELLA, la que la designo. Es dificil dejar de sospechar que a Mauricio Macri quieren ponerle piedras en el camino, y dificultarle su labor. Dejar a los subterraneos sin proteccion del gobierno nacional es un acto de salvajismo, maxime cuando nuestra intendencia no tiene como solucionar los multiples problemas, que a veces parecieran ser fogoneados por el propio gobierno nacional, para desprestigiar a quien equivocadamente suponen es el responsable.

Ojo, Buenos Aires no es una Provincia, el señor Macri es tan solo un Intendente, de una jerarquia importante por ser el Lord Major de nuestra Capital, pero carece de las prerrogativas de cualquier gobernador provincial, que ha sido designado en uno de nuestros Estados Federales, los que conforman la Republica Argentina. Segun la Constitucion que me toco estudiar, que aparentemente es diferente a la que interpretan Garre y Cristina.

GOBERNANTES EXITOSOS

Es dificil entender porque gente que esta en el gobierno, y parece millonaria o economicamente acomodada, desgobierna tanto. No se entiende, a mi edad, que gente archimillonaria como Cristina, que acaba de ser reelecta, y encima zafo de un problema de salud que afortunadamente no existia, no se ocupan de la seguridad de la gente que vive en CABA, ciudad autonoma de Buenos Aires. Que para los macristas, vendria mentirosamente a ser una provincia de igual rango constitucional que las diecinueve que constituyen Argentina, si no me equivoco en los numeros. Pero BAIRES no es provincia, es mucho menos constitucionalmente, aunque por otros motivos pareciera ser mucho mas que cualquier otra provincia, excepto LA PROVINCIA de Buenos Aires, de la cual le extrajeron las provincias su vieja Capital, debiendo entonces inventarse a LA PLATA como capital provincial, años atras.

Ahora vemos que los escandalos y las molestias a los que visitan o vivimos en Baires, no solo continuan, sino que con el aviso de que la Policia Federal no colaborara, la cosa se pone peligrosisima, porque seria como un piedra libre oficial para que el bandidaje asole a nuestra querida city porteña. No es por Macri que escribo esta charla, sino por la gente desprotegida, obviamente por razones politicas. En cualquier pais civilizado, su ciudad capital tiene igual o mas proteccion, quizas, que las restantes, ya que entre otras cosas, estan las embajadas de los paises extranjeros. Un problema de seriedad, pero ademas, de tacto y sentido comun, como lo es proteger a los extranjeros. Cuando esto no sucede, es porque estamos desgobernados, ya que nuestro gobierno parece ser victima de salvajes, que se benefician ellos, pero usan a la gente no solo para enriquecerse. Sino para desprestigiar, quizas, al pobre Intendente porteño, y lograr que el oficialismo dentro de pocos años vote por un Intentente cristinista, y no como suele suceder, para que el pueblo citadino siga votando como quiere, generalmente al reves de lo que eligen las provincias.

Insisto en que los rioplatenses tenemos una vision distinta. Uruguay no es un pais fascista y ladron, aunque pueda todavia ser demasiado dirigista, cosa que ignoro, pero nada me extrañaria porque esa ha sido la tendencia sudaca de los ultimos ochenta años, cuando el fascismo dirigista comenzo a instalarse en Europa, creando una enfermedad politico social que degenero en el fascismo, franquismo y nazismo, entre otros ejemplos de violencia y horror. Los porteños votamos mas en la linea de Uruguay, no somos tan peronistas c ristinistas autoritarios, aunque sigamos teniendo que optar por el mal menor, que ha sido ultimamente Macri y su Pro, como alternativa superadora para los porteños.

Las provincias son distintas, necesitan totalmente del Estado Nacional, y alli el peronismo o cristinismo triunfan. Alla ellos, si estan contentos, mejor, y si estan descontentos y eligieron a la gente equivocada, tendran oportunidad de corregir a sus gobernantes, no reeligiendolos o votando otras lineas mejores. Aqui, Macri corre ese mismo peligro: esta haciendo demasiadas cosas sospechosas, algunas denunciamos, como eso de pagar por la expropiacion del edificio en la calle Bartolome Mitre, derrumbado, el valor de plaza del dia ANTERIOR a su destruccion. Esto es algo disparatado e inmoral, pero fue aprobado por una ley de la ciudad autonoma, con lo cual todos los que la votaron o no denunciaron penalmente a los que lo hicieron, serian susceptibles de ser investigados. Sospechas sobran, pruebas existen, pero creo nadie investiga porque se paga por algo que no esta mas. A menos que sea para que los beneficiados, a costillas del patrimonio citadino, desistan de accionar contra la CIUDAD, por no controlar los edificios. Es decir, que la estafa seria para encubrir la incapacidad de los funcionarios del gobierno municipal macrista, que no hicieron cumplir la ley. Ni exigieron la submuracion previa, temas estos que han sido tratados y denunciados oportunamente en nuestro blog, pero que ahora han pasado al olvido, porque a nadie le conviene investigar: el dinero sale del Estado bobo porteño, al cual se lo acusa de pagar mucho mas de lo que vale cuando hace contratos de construccion. Esto se lo oi decir por television dias atras a un señor que ha sido designado para controlar las finanzas locales, y pertenece al partido cristinista, y esperamos que ya este poniendo las denuncias que dijo haria, en manos de la justicia nacional, que es la encargada de investigar a los ladrones de la intendencia porteña, cuando cometen delitos contra el patrimonio de la Ciudad.

Cuando las condenas recaigan sobre ministros o gobernantes importantes, tipo ministros, intendentes, gobernadores y presidentes, tendriamos una justicia perfecta. Pero como eso es imposible, la perfeccion seria algo inhumano en materia judicial. Ergo, inicialmente nos conformamos si alguno de los bandidos desgobernantes intocables, termina siendo encarcelado. Pues asi, SERA JUSTICIA…

ULTIMA GUERRA MUNDIAL? (Apocalipsis NOW?)

Germán Rafael Pirán — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:01:39 +0000

Recibido de varias partes, Argentina entre ellas. Cerificado en Google – Publicado desde Chicago por Gaston Saint Martin (gsaintmartin@hotmail.com)

LUNES 23 DE ENERO DE 2012

Jefe del Ejército israelí advierte: El mundo debe “prepararse para lo peor”.

El jefe de Estado Mayor de la Fuerza de Defensa de Israel, Benny Gantz , advirtió hoy, miércoles, en un encuentro de comandantes militares de la OTAN en Bruselas (Bélgica), que el mundo necesita “prepararse para lo peor”, a raíz de las revueltas en Medio Oriente y la proliferación de armamento en manos de organizaciones terroristas en todo el orbe.

Para ello se debe “reforzar a los elementos moderados y debilitar a los radicales”, recomendó. “Sólo a través de un trabajo conjunto, que combine fuerza dura y suave, podremos disuadir y, en el largo plazo, derrotar a estos elementos radicales”, prosiguió Gantz, quien antes se había reunido con sus pares canadiense e italiano.

El jefe militar sostuvo que la decisión de la OTAN de establecer un sistema de defensa antimisiles en Europa fue una demostración de la gravedad de lo que las armas no convencionales le representan al mundo.

“Los sistemas contra misiles balísticos deben ser la última línea de defensa, y la iniciativa tiene que empezar antes, al agotar todos los medios a su alcance para evitar la proliferación de armas de destrucción masiva”, reclamó.

Gantz también tiene previsto entrevistarse con sus pares de Gran Bretaña, Rusia, Francia, España, Australia, Grecia y Polonia.

6:01 PM Diario Maracaibo

Tensiones entre Israel y EEUU por la crisis de Irán

Dempsey deposita una ofrenda en el Museo del Holocausto de Jerusalén B. Armangue / AP

Israel está forzando el paso al máximo para conseguir que Washington se implique de una manera más concluyente con Irán. El transparente objetivo del primer ministro, Binyamín Netanyahu, es conseguir que la Casa Blanca incremente significativamente las duras sanciones que ya pesan sobre la República Islámica, arrastrando consigo a la UE y Asia, y que EEUU explicite con mayor claridad su intención de declarar una guerra Irán que responda a los intereses de Israel.

A incrementar las tensiones ha contribuido la publicación en el último número de la revista estadounidense Atlanta Jewish Times de un osado artículo en el que el editor y propietario, Andrew Adler, apunta sin tapujos que el Mosad israelí debería considerar el asesinato del presidente Barack Obama para que el vicepresidente Joe Biden le sustituya en el cargo y emprenda una vía más resolutiva con Irán.

El comentarista Chemi Salev, del diario Haaretz, calificó ayer de “estúpido” e “idiota” el delirante artículo de Adler, pero también señaló que su actitud cuenta con el apoyo de otras personas y es el “inevitable resultado del excesivo volumen de veneno repugnante que algunos de los rivales políticos de Obama, incluidos judíos y no judíos, han expresado en los últimos tres años”.

A lo largo de la semana que hoy termina, tanto en Israel como en EEUU se han difundido declaraciones oficiales que revelan una tirantez considerable. La tensión se origina en que Netanyahu parece considerar que al haberse iniciado la carrera electoral en Estados Unidos, Obama es más vulnerable al lobby judío, un grupo de presión que se identifica con las posiciones más radicales de Israel, aunque se ha de subrayar que su actitud no refleja la de toda la comunidad judía de Norteamérica.

Si hace justo una semana Netanyahu declaró que las sanciones que ha impuesto Occidente a Irán son insuficientes para contrarrestar su programa nuclear, el miércoles un alto funcionario del Departamento de Estado de EEUU saltó a la palestra para contradecir a Netanyahu y afirmar que las sanciones son eficaces y deben aplicarse de manera gradual.

Pero Netanyahu quiere más y lo quiere ya, no sólo de Estados Unidos sino también de Europa y de Asia, sobre todo sanciones que incidan sobre la industria petrolífera de Irán y en las actividades de su Banco Central. En concreto, Netanyahu desea que todo Occidente y Asia dejen de adquirir crudo iraní y lo importen de otros países de la región, como Arabia Saudí.

Visita del general Dempsey

El jueves llegó a Israel el jefe del Estado Mayor del Ejército de EEUU, general Martin Dempsey, con la intención de evaluar personalmente la posición de Israel. El ministro de Defensa israelí, Ehud Barak, tuvo que calmar el ambiente diciendo que la decisión de atacar Irán por parte de Israel está todavía “muy lejos”, lo que contradice numerosas declaraciones recientes de altos funcionarios israelíes.

En el último día de su estancia en Israel, el general Dempsey divulgó un comunicado en el que aseguraba que los dos países “comparten” la manera de ver las cuestiones de seguridad de Oriente Próximo. No obstante, será necesario esperar algún tiempo para ver quién lleva más cartas de triunfo en la cuestión iraní, Netanyahu u Obama.

EUGENIO GARCÍA GASCÓN / Público

SÁBADO 14 DE ENERO DE 2012

Henry Kissinger: Si no escuchas los Tambores de Guerra estas sordo

En unas declaraciones extraordinarias, el que fuera secretario de Estado en la era Nixon, Henry Kissinger, revela lo que está sucediendo en este momento en el mundo y especialmente en Oriente Medio.

Hablando desde su lujoso apartamento de Manhattan, el estadista, que cumplirá 89 años este próximo mes de mayo, está perfectamente actualizado con su análisis de la situación actual en el foro mundial de geopolítica y economía.

“Estados Unidos está rendido ante China y Rusia, y el último clavo en el ataúd será Irán, que es, por supuesto, el principal objetivo de Israel. Hemos permitido a China aumentar su fuerza militar y a Rusia recuperarse de la sovietización, lo que les dará una falsa sensación de valentía, pero que traerá para todos juntos una muerte más rápida. Somos como el tirador que se atreve a dejar que el novato coja el arma, y cuando lo intentan, es bang bang. La próxima guerra que viene será tan grave que sólo una superpotencia puede ganar, y esa somos nosotros, amigo.

Esta es la razón porque la Unión Europea se da tanta prisa para formar un completo super estado, porque saben lo que viene, y para sobrevivir, Europa tendrá que ser un estado coherente conjunto. Su urgencia me dice que ellos saben muy bien que el gran enfrentamiento está sobre nosotros. ¡Oh, cuánto he soñado con este momento!”

“Controla el petróleo y controlarás a las naciones; controla los alimentos y controlarás a la gente”.

El Sr. Kissinger agregó: “Si usted es una persona normal, entonces usted puede prepararse para la guerra trasladándose a las zonas rurales y construyéndose una granja, pero aún así hay que tomar las armas con las que defenderse de las hordas de hambrientos que se acerquen. Además, aunque la élite tendrá sus refugios y sus centros de acogida especializados, deben ser igual de cuidadosos durante la guerra como los civiles de a pie, porque sus refugios aún pueden verse comprometidos”.

Después de una pausa de unos minutos para ordenar sus pensamientos, el señor Kissinger, continuó:

“Le dijimos a los militares que tendrían que conquistar más de siete países de Oriente Medio por sus recursos y casi han completado su trabajo. Todos sabemos lo que pienso de los militares, pero tengo que decir que han obedecido las órdenes someramente en esta ocasión. Es sólo la última piedra del camino, es decir, Irán, la que realmente inclinará la balanza. ¿Cuánto tiempo pueden China y Rusia esperar y ver a América poniendo orden? El gran oso ruso y la hoz china se han despertado de su letargo, y aquí es cuando Israel tienen que luchar con todas sus fuerzas y armas para matar a tantos árabes como pueda.

Esperemos que si todo va bien, la mitad de Oriente Medio será israelí. Nuestros jóvenes han sido bien entrenados en la última década más o menos con consolas de juegos de combate. Fue interesante ver el nuevo juego Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3, que refleja exactamente lo que está por venir en un futuro próximo con su programación de predicción.

Nuestros jóvenes, en los EE.UU. y Occidente, están preparados, ya que han sido programados para ser buenos soldados, carne de cañón, y cuando se les ordene salir a las calles y luchar contra los chinos y los rusos, obedecerán las órdenes. De las cenizas vamos a construir una nueva sociedad, solo quedará una superpotencia, y será el gobierno mundial que gane. No lo olvide, los Estados Unidos tienen las mejores armas, tenemos cosas que ninguna otra nación tiene, y vamos a introducir esas armas en el mundo cuando sea el momento adecuado.”

Fin de la entrevista. A nuestro reportero se le urge a abandonar la habitación por parte del guardaespaldas de Kissinger.

Fuente: http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/temas-calientes/276758-henry-kissinger-si-no-oyes-los-tambores-de-guerra-es-que-estas-sordo.html

EE UU coloca dos portaaviones cerca del estrecho de Ormuz

El Ejército estadounidense ya ha afirmado que no permitirá el bloqueo del estrecho. Un tercer portaaviones se dirige también al mar Arábico.

El Ejército de Estados Unidos ha afirmado este miércoles que un nuevo portaaviones ha sido ubicado en el mar Arábigo y que otro está camino de la región, pero ha negado que estos movimientos tengan relación con las crecientes tensiones con Irán y ha tildado estas acciones de rutinarias.

Estos desplazamientos se producen en un momento en que las tensiones están disparándose entre ambos países y poco después de que Irán haya amenazado con cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz en caso de que las sanciones de Washington y la Unión Europea afecten negativamente a sus exportaciones de petróleo.

El Ejército estadounidense ya ha afirmado que no permitirá el bloqueo del estrecho. Pese a todo, el Pentágono ha desmentido que exista una relación directa entre estos cruces de declaraciones y la ubicación de nuevos portaaviones en el mar Arábigo.

“No quiero que nadie se lleve la impresión de que estamos enviando allí dos buques porque estamos preocupados por lo que ha pasado hoy en Irán. No es el caso”, ha dicho el portavoz del Pentágono, John Kirby, quien ha hecho referencia así al atentado con bomba que este miércoles ha acabado con la vida de un científico nuclear en Teherán, del que la República Islámica ha acusado a Israel.

Fuentes del Ejército estadounidense han dicho que el USS Carl Vinson llegó el lunes al mar Arábigo para reemplazar el USS John C. Stennis, al que Irán advirtió de que no volviera al golfo Pérsico tras salir de él en diciembre. El Stennis debía regresar al puerto estadounidense de San Diego, pero el Pentágono no ha especificado la fecha en la que esto ocurrirá.

Otro grupo de barcos, liderados por el portaaviones USS Abraham Lincoln, finalizó su visita a Tailandia el martes y está ahora en el océano Índico de camino a la región. Así, se incorporará al Vinson en el área de operaciones del Comando Central (CENTCOM).

“No es inusual tener dos portaaviones en el teatro del CENTCOM al mismo tiempo”, ha señalado una fuente militar. Otra fuente ha recalcado que esta situación se ha dado al menos dos veces en los últimos 18 meses.

“Operamos de manera rutinaria con nuestros barcos -todos nuestros barcos, todos nuestros tipos de barcos- dentro del golfo Pérsico, y esto va a continuar siendo así”, ha apostillado Kirby.

RADIO MIAMI sugerimos

Germán Rafael Pirán — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 18:46:05 +0000

para informarnos mejor sobre Argentina, y otros paises, info@radiomiami.us sugerimos consultar.

WINSTON CHURCHILL y La Tripulacion del CONCORDIA

Germán Rafael Pirán — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 05:52:18 +0000

Recibido de Argentina, Publicado desde Chicago por Gaston Saint Martin (gsaintmartin@hotmail.com)

Winston Churchill y la tripulación del Concordia

Después de retirarse Don Winston Churchill estaba disfrutando en un crucero Italiano, cuando se le acerca un periodista Italiano y le pregunta:

Porque un Ex Ministro Británico eligió una nave Italiana para hacer un crucero?

Hay tres cosas importantes para preferir un crucero Italiano, Churchill le contestó

Primero “La Cocina Italiana es inmejorable.

Segundo: El servicio es esplendido!

Y tercero en caso de una emergencia aquí no se andan con esas pavadas de “…MUJERES Y NINOS PRIMERO….”

WINSTON CHURCHIL y LA TRIPULACION DEL CONCORDIA

EL SILENCIO ES ESENCIAL, DICE EL PAPA

Germán Rafael Pirán — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 21:12:45 +0000

javascript:Increment()

publicado en La Nueva Provincia, hoy.

QUOTE ON ITALIAN CRUISE SHIPS…

Germán Rafael Pirán — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:00:35 +0000

—– Mensaje reenviado —–
De: SUE LITTLETON
Para: Greg Gossett
Enviado: lunes, 23 de enero de 2012 11:16
Asunto: Classic- Churchill quote on Italian Cruise Ships…

Dear Greg,

I had heard this before and it was good then, but now, it is perfect …

Sue == == ==

The current plight of the Costa Concordia and its crew reminds me of a Winston Churchill quote…..

After his retirement he was cruising the Mediterranean on an Italian cruise liner and some Italian journalists asked why an ex British Prime Minister should choose an Italian ship.
“There are three things I like about being on an Italian cruise ship” said Churchill.
“First their cuisine is unsurpassed. Second their service is superb. And then, in time of emergency, there is none of this nonsense about women and children first”

LA EXCUSA MALVINENSE

Germán Rafael Pirán — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 21:08:53 +0000

Nuevamente Malvinas sirve para que el Gobierno incite al patrioterismo, a tres decadas del frustrado y por Cristina condenado intento de recuperar las islas, por parte de los militares. Cuando yo era chico, alla por 1950, se sabia que las islas estaban ocupadas por los ingleses, y no recuerdo que eso fuese algo importante para los argentinos continentales. Años despues, recuerdo surgieron los reclamos, cuando el peronismo militarista descubrio que nada mejor que dividir para reinar, y comenzo aquel proceso que termino con la breve reocupacion de las islas, durante 1982. La Presidenta argumento que el hecho de que los militares que nos ocupaban en el continente hubieran invadido las islas, no significaba que el pueblo argentino pudiese ser considerado responsable por la invasion. Pero en 1994, la clausula transitoria de la reformada Constitucion Argentina fue clara: solo por la via del Derecho Internacional las recuperariamos en el futuro. Es decir, como hoy pareciera estar claro, si el Reino Unido y Argentina llegamos a un acuerdo para que los kelpers sean propiedad del Estado Argentino, tal como lo somos aun los cuarenta millones circa de habitantes, que supuestamente somos ciudadanos, pero en la practica somos desgobernados por el Presidente de turno, sea civil o militar, porque la Constitucion dejo de funcionar en 1930 y sigue incumplida: es mentira que tengamos un sistema tripartito de Poderes, donde la Corte Suprema pueda frenar los avances ilegales o inconstitucionales del Ejecutivo o del Legislativo.

LO NORMAL

Se supone que un argentino debe ser absolutamente pro Malvinas, en el sentido de sostener contra viento y marea, que los kelpers deben quedar sometidos a las mismas leyes que nos desgobiernan a nosotros, los continentales y los fueguinos. Objetivamente, parece claro que el sistema legal vigente en Malvinas es mucho mejor para los kelpers que el sistema argentino para nosotros. Es un claro tema donde no se puede decir la verdad, so pena de parecer traidor a la patria. Casi, exagerando, como si los alemanes sometidos durante el hitlerismo, hubiesen querido convencer a los ingleses que el sistema aleman de una raza superior era mejor. El resultado lo hemos visto: la gente prefiere, en terminos mayoritarios, el sistema educativo britanico. Y los argentinos hemos sufrido bastante los efectos de la cultura britanica: el futbol para todos demuestra que la Presidenta esta demasiado influida por ese deporte ingles, que tiene atrapada a gran parte de la poblacion mundial.

Pero no creo ser anormal, cuando comprendo que para los kelpers el sistema administrativo que tienen, es mucho mejor que el argentino. Aparentemente. Y ese es el motivo logico por el cual el Reino Unido esta dispuesto a escuchar lo que decidan los malvinenses, en forma de una votacion libre. Y obviamente, eso explica que nuestros desgobernantes insistan en que el pueblo kelper no tiene derecho a decidir por si mismo, porque las islas son argentinas y lo fueron siempre, a partir de que las heredamos de España, cuando nos liberamos de ella en 1810, o quizas mas correctamente, el 9 de julio de 1816 cuando formalmente nos declaramos independientes de España, una exigencia del General Jose de San Martin para cruzar la cordillera con su ejercito libertador, invadiendo Chile ocupado por los hispanos, con ayuda de O Higgins, el patriota chileno y muchos otros valientes soldados de la emancipacion. Cosa que se logro, finamente, con ayuda de buques capitaneados por el marino britanico, que transporto por mar a las fuerzas argentino chilenas hasta llegar a Peru.

La conclusion es que nuestros politicos dirigistas usan y utilizan al pueblo y a sus sentimientos patriotas, para gobernarlos mejor. Pero mejor para los desgobernantes que tenemos, y no para nosotros, el pueblo llano. Es triste oir las disputas verbales entre el primer ministro britanico, y nuestros cristinistas funcionarios, cada cual mas obsecuente que el otro, porque estan haciendo lo mismo que quiso lograr el fracasado general Galtieri: ganar apoyo popular, usando un metodo equivocado, llamado demagogia tonta y peligrosa, que daña mas a Argentina que a los kelpers o al Reino Unido. Pero Galtieri, a titulo personal, se beneficio con la aventura malvinense perdida, ya que aunque perdio el Gobierno, fue considerado en silencio como un patriota, y nadie lo despojo de sus estrellas de general, mientras que el resto de sus pares militares era castigado legal y socialmente, por haber iniciado una guerra que perdimos. Si la hubiesemos ganado, otra seria la historia, pero lo cierto es que nos derrotaron. Sospecho, tan solo, que los ingleses arrancaron algun documento a nuestros desgobernantes militares, al derrotarnos en 1982, por el cual nos comprometiamos a no volver a invadir las islas. De lo contrario, nada de sentido tiene la arriba mencionada clausula trnsitoria constitucional primera, que nos prohibe volver a ocuparlas belicamente.

LA CULTURA BRITANICA

Estaba hace un rato intentando achicar mi desconocimiento sobre Singapur, y recurr a google, y me entere de cosas, que me hicieron recordar el tema Malvinas, que hoy esta en boca de los medios y los politicos que nos desgobiernan a nivel nacional. Recomiendo que algun eventual lector me imite, y notara como Singapur es un pais exitoso, uno de los mejor organizados y prosperos del planeta.

Y esto me hizo pensar que nosotros, Argentina, tambien fuimos mucho antes, siglo atras, un pais admirado por el mundo, y que la cultura inglesa habia hecho mucho para desarrollar las potencialidades de Argentina y nuestro pueblo, con reglas de juego sensatas, inversiones importantisimas britanicas, y una libertad de comercio que los bandidos desgobernantes españoles de los cuales nos liberaron los Grandes de Mayo, nos negaban. Porque eramos propiedad del bandido rey Borbon de turno, o sea, eramos no ciudadanos sino gente de segunda, con apenas mejores derechos que los animales. Ojo, esto lo dice, en otras palabras, el texto completo de nuestro Himno Nacional, que sigue vigente.

Si la cultura britanica de los kelpers los hace tan felices y contentos, como le oi decir por radio esta semana a un argentino continental que trabaja en Malvinas, y esta casado con una kelper a quien conocio en nuestro territorio continental, porque iban juntos a la escuela, medito que los kelpers, aparte de ser constitucionalmente argentinos, y por encima de eso, son seres humanos y lo logico es esperar que su felicidad continue. A mi me encantaria que Cristina fuese tan buena Presidenta, que los kelpers quisiesen ser argentinos y votaran por unirse a nosotros.

Pero lo veo dificil: sospecho el gobernador de las Islas es alguien mucho mas sensato que ELLA y sus incondicionales, al momento de dictar leyes sensatas para que la sociedad viva mejor. Peor aun: sospecho que si los kelpers administraran nuestro pais continental, estariamos mas tranquilos en el sentido de que nuestra Constitucion y nuestras leyes serian respetadas, y que la Corte Suprema Federal que tenemos seria sensata, justa y honesta.

Hablar mal de los ingleses, cosecha votos para los politicos argentinos. En la peninsula iberica, dudo que algun politico sensato de Gibraltar haga politica pidiendo que la poblacion se converta en subdita del Borbon Rey actual de España. Por suerte, todos deben tener, calculo, el mismo pasaporte de la comunidad, y se puede cruzar de Gibraltar a España sin problemas, lo cual indicaria que la nacionalidad es menos importante, cuando los demagogos desgobernantes no existen. Hoy, en Argentina, nadie hace demagocia diciendo que los provincianos de otras provincias de nuestro pais son bandidos, y mucho menos, se usa el provincialismo como factor demagogico para atraer votos. Apenas hay una demagogia barata, que es la de los que usan el argumento de los pueblos originarios, para conseguir ventajas, olvidando que como han pasado dos siglos desde que nos liberamos de España, ya todos somos originarios, porque no quedan vivos los ancestros en cuyo nombre los descendientes reivindican derechos a poseer mas tierra. Pero blandiendo esos derechos, muchos demagogos consiguen poder, generalmente local. Y Cristina esta entusiasmada por el patriotismo, pero por suerte otra guerra no habra. President Obama ha sido claro: es un tema a discutir entre U.K. y Argentina. Lo cual tiene muchas interpretaciones diferentes, por parte de intelectuales, politicos y periodistas nuestros.

En la practica, la cosa parece clara: algun dia el planeta podria ser un solo pais, es decir, un gobierno mundial, en forma oficial. Y en ese momento, no tendra importancia ser kelper o ser argentino. Pero hasta entonces, pareciera estamos condenados a tener que esperar que los britanicos se dignen negociar, ya que es muy dificil que alguien pueda forzarlos a hacerlo. O sea, que seguiran habiendo motivos para que futuros desgobernantes nuestros agiten el argumento del imperialismo ingles, para cosechar votos. Esa es la parte mala.

La parte buena, es que nuestra Constitucion dice que no reintentaremos volver a ocuparlas por la fuerza. Por suerte para todos, ya que me apena tanto la muerte de los chicos nuestros como los del otro bando, en Malvinas, y me indigna que Galtieri haya conseguido un tratamiento especial, como si hubiese sido un acto de heroismo nacional el ocupar de noche y por sorpresa, una isla desprotegida, en nuestro operativo militar, tan bien preparado, que ningun kelper fue lastimado, aunque uno de nuestro bando continental termino muriendo la noche de la ocupacion nuestra.

MODELO PRODUCTIVO

Germán Rafael Pirán — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 19:17:06 +0000

—– Mensaje reenviado —–
De: Daniel Balbastro
Para: Undisclosed-Recipient@yahoo.com
Enviado: domingo, 22 de enero de 2012 0:28
Asunto: MODELO PRODUCTIVO

Amigos queridos:

les reenvío este comentario hecho por un amigo mío al diario LA NACION de bs as.-

Es contundente y no tiene desperdicios.

Un abrazo: daniel balbastro

—————————————————-

—– Mensaje reenviado —–
De: Horacio Lando

Para: Diario La Nación <cartas@lanacion.com.ar>
Enviado: jueves, 19 de enero de 2012 13:20
Asunto: MODELO PRODUCTIVO

Señor Director:

En el suplemento de Economía de este jueves 19 de Enero se publicó la inminente inversión de 2 empresas: una en Saenz Peña, Chaco por 2 millones de dólares en una planta de prensado de expeller y aceite de soja y la otra por 20 millones de dólares (10 veces más) en la ampliación de un casino en el Tigre. Inmediatamente comprendí cual es el “modelo productivo” que fomenta este Gobierno.

Le saluda muy atte.-

Ing.Agr. Horacio Landó

Gualeguaychú-Entre Ríos